Pre-tourney Rankings
Dayton
Atlantic 10
2016-17
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.9#47
Expected Predictive Rating+11.3#46
Pace68.5#153
Improvement-0.4#190

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#47
First Shot+7.2#22
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#270
Layup/Dunks+3.0#58
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#283
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#76
Freethrows+3.0#27
Improvement+0.5#153

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#55
First Shot+4.3#59
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#109
Layups/Dunks+3.6#55
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#145
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#211
Freethrows+0.8#125
Improvement-0.9#232
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.4% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.2% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 95.2% n/a n/a
Average Seed 8.9 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.1% n/a n/a
First Round94.5% n/a n/a
Second Round39.8% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen7.8% n/a n/a
Elite Eight2.2% n/a n/a
Final Four0.5% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.1% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 9 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2016 288   Austin Peay W 96-68 97%     1 - 0 +17.5 +10.4 +6.2
  Nov 15, 2016 52   @ Alabama W 77-72 43%     2 - 0 +17.8 +22.1 -3.8
  Nov 19, 2016 22   St. Mary's L 57-61 39%     2 - 1 +9.7 +0.7 +8.3
  Nov 24, 2016 99   Nebraska L 78-80 73%     2 - 2 +2.4 +11.3 -8.9
  Nov 25, 2016 265   Portland W 84-74 94%     3 - 2 +3.7 +3.6 -0.6
  Nov 27, 2016 118   New Mexico W 64-57 78%     4 - 2 +9.6 -2.9 +13.1
  Dec 03, 2016 115   Winthrop W 83-67 84%     5 - 2 +16.4 +6.8 +8.8
  Dec 10, 2016 69   East Tennessee St. W 75-61 70%     6 - 2 +19.4 +3.4 +15.5
  Dec 17, 2016 40   Northwestern L 64-67 48%     6 - 3 +8.4 -0.5 +8.8
  Dec 21, 2016 34   Vanderbilt W 68-63 54%     7 - 3 +14.8 +2.2 +12.7
  Dec 23, 2016 324   VMI W 92-56 98%     8 - 3 +22.6 +14.7 +9.3
  Dec 30, 2016 139   La Salle W 66-55 87%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +9.8 -4.7 +15.5
  Jan 03, 2017 91   @ St. Bonaventure W 90-74 63%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +23.5 +16.4 +6.2
  Jan 06, 2017 49   Rhode Island W 67-64 60%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +11.3 +5.4 +6.2
  Jan 11, 2017 150   @ Massachusetts L 55-67 77%     11 - 4 3 - 1 -8.8 -18.0 +10.2
  Jan 14, 2017 209   Duquesne W 76-57 90%     12 - 4 4 - 1 +16.1 +1.7 +14.3
  Jan 19, 2017 88   Richmond W 75-59 78%     13 - 4 5 - 1 +18.7 +5.9 +13.5
  Jan 22, 2017 244   Saint Louis W 67-46 95%     14 - 4 6 - 1 +13.5 +1.6 +14.6
  Jan 27, 2017 51   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 68-73 42%     14 - 5 6 - 2 +7.8 +11.1 -3.9
  Jan 31, 2017 192   @ Fordham W 75-66 82%     15 - 5 7 - 2 +10.0 +15.3 -4.3
  Feb 04, 2017 209   Duquesne W 90-53 93%     16 - 5 8 - 2 +31.5 +18.9 +14.4
  Feb 07, 2017 179   Saint Joseph's W 77-70 90%     17 - 5 9 - 2 +3.8 +7.8 -3.6
  Feb 10, 2017 49   @ Rhode Island W 75-74 40%     18 - 5 10 - 2 +14.4 +14.8 -0.3
  Feb 14, 2017 244   @ Saint Louis W 85-63 89%     19 - 5 11 - 2 +19.6 +20.4 +0.9
  Feb 18, 2017 91   St. Bonaventure W 76-72 79%     20 - 5 12 - 2 +6.4 +4.4 +2.0
  Feb 21, 2017 109   George Mason W 83-70 83%     21 - 5 13 - 2 +13.9 +9.2 +4.6
  Feb 24, 2017 87   @ Davidson W 89-82 OT 61%     22 - 5 14 - 2 +15.1 +13.5 +1.1
  Mar 01, 2017 51   Virginia Commonwealth W 79-72 62%     23 - 5 15 - 2 +14.8 +14.8 +0.3
  Mar 04, 2017 113   @ George Washington L 81-87 70%     23 - 6 15 - 3 -0.4 +13.1 -13.7
  Mar 10, 2017 87   Davidson L 67-73 70%     23 - 7 -0.4 +1.2 -2.0
Projected Record 23.0 - 7.0 15.0 - 3.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 100.0    100.0
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 95.2% 95.2% 8.9 0.4 6.3 26.6 34.4 23.1 4.4 0.0 4.8 95.2%
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 95.2% 0.0% 95.2% 8.9 0.4 6.3 26.6 34.4 23.1 4.4 0.0 4.8 95.2%