Pre-tourney Rankings
Dayton
Atlantic 10
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.8#63
Expected Predictive Rating+6.3#84
Pace63.4#317
Improvement-0.4#199

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#47
First Shot+4.2#61
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#94
Layup/Dunks+6.3#8
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#145
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#245
Freethrows-0.7#233
Improvement-1.1#238

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#104
First Shot+4.0#67
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#308
Layups/Dunks+2.0#84
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#298
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#141
Freethrows+2.8#26
Improvement+0.7#139
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed 12.0 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.0% n/a n/a
First Round0.4% n/a n/a
Second Round0.1% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0.0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.0% n/a n/a
Final Four0.0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 3.00.0 - 3.0
Quad 1b1.0 - 2.01.0 - 5.0
Quad 22.0 - 3.03.0 - 8.0
Quad 35.0 - 3.08.0 - 11.0
Quad 413.0 - 0.021.0 - 11.0


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 189   North Florida W 78-70 87%     1 - 0 +3.4 +5.4 -1.7
  Nov 10, 2018 343   Coppin St. W 76-46 98%     2 - 0 +12.2 -6.4 +16.9
  Nov 16, 2018 182   Purdue Fort Wayne W 91-80 86%     3 - 0 +6.9 +8.4 -2.1
  Nov 21, 2018 69   Butler W 69-64 52%     4 - 0 +12.2 +2.2 +10.2
  Nov 22, 2018 2   Virginia L 59-66 8%     4 - 1 +16.0 +13.1 +0.9
  Nov 23, 2018 34   Oklahoma L 54-65 36%     4 - 2 +0.5 -5.5 +4.8
  Nov 30, 2018 20   Mississippi St. L 58-65 34%     4 - 3 +5.1 -9.7 +14.7
  Dec 04, 2018 255   Detroit Mercy W 98-59 92%     5 - 3 +30.7 +16.2 +14.1
  Dec 08, 2018 11   @ Auburn L 72-82 14%     5 - 4 +9.5 +7.1 +2.2
  Dec 16, 2018 121   Tulsa L 67-72 66%     5 - 5 -1.4 +4.1 -6.0
  Dec 19, 2018 245   Western Michigan W 85-72 92%     6 - 5 +5.1 +9.1 -4.1
  Dec 22, 2018 199   Presbyterian W 81-69 88%     7 - 5 +6.8 +3.3 +3.8
  Dec 29, 2018 111   Georgia Southern W 94-90 73%     8 - 5 +5.4 +10.9 -5.9
  Jan 06, 2019 184   Richmond W 72-48 87%     9 - 5 1 - 0 +19.8 +0.5 +21.4
  Jan 09, 2019 270   @ George Washington W 72-66 85%     10 - 5 2 - 0 +2.4 -1.1 +3.5
  Jan 13, 2019 225   Massachusetts W 72-67 90%     11 - 5 3 - 0 -1.4 +1.8 -2.7
  Jan 16, 2019 44   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 71-76 29%     11 - 6 3 - 1 +8.4 +11.1 -2.8
  Jan 19, 2019 119   @ St. Bonaventure W 89-86 2OT 55%     12 - 6 4 - 1 +9.4 +13.7 -4.6
  Jan 23, 2019 155   George Mason L 63-67 83%     12 - 7 4 - 2 -6.2 -4.5 -2.1
  Jan 26, 2019 244   @ Fordham W 75-52 83%     13 - 7 5 - 2 +20.7 +9.1 +13.2
  Jan 29, 2019 174   Saint Joseph's W 75-64 85%     14 - 7 6 - 2 +7.5 +3.6 +4.5
  Feb 02, 2019 160   Duquesne W 68-64 84%     15 - 7 7 - 2 +1.1 +3.4 -1.7
  Feb 05, 2019 102   @ Saint Louis L 60-73 51%     15 - 8 7 - 3 -5.5 +1.4 -8.5
  Feb 09, 2019 133   @ Rhode Island W 77-48 60%     16 - 8 8 - 3 +34.2 +19.8 +18.9
  Feb 16, 2019 44   Virginia Commonwealth L 68-69 50%     16 - 9 8 - 4 +6.9 +12.3 -5.5
  Feb 19, 2019 86   @ Davidson W 74-73 46%     17 - 9 9 - 4 +9.7 +10.4 -0.7
  Feb 23, 2019 102   Saint Louis W 70-62 71%     18 - 9 10 - 4 +9.9 +6.9 +3.7
  Feb 26, 2019 225   @ Massachusetts W 72-48 79%     19 - 9 11 - 4 +23.2 -0.7 +24.4
  Mar 01, 2019 133   Rhode Island L 70-72 OT 78%     19 - 10 11 - 5 -2.3 -2.3 +0.0
  Mar 06, 2019 216   La Salle W 70-39 89%     20 - 10 12 - 5 +25.2 +4.1 +24.9
  Mar 09, 2019 160   @ Duquesne W 78-67 69%     21 - 10 13 - 5 +13.7 +10.3 +4.0
  Mar 15, 2019 102   Saint Louis L 55-64 62%     21 - 11 -4.3 -5.5 +0.0
Projected Record 21.0 - 11.0 13.0 - 5.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 1.0% 1.0% 12.0 0.1 0.8 0.1 99.0 1.0%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 12.0 0.1 0.8 0.1 99.0 1.0%