Pre-tourney Rankings
Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+23.0#2
Expected Predictive Rating+25.5#1
Pace54.4#353
Improvement+1.1#137

Offense
Total Offense+12.7#3
First Shot+9.9#6
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#19
Layup/Dunks+3.1#61
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#159
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#22
Freethrows+1.0#108
Improvement+1.8#91

Defense
Total Defense+10.3#6
First Shot+10.2#5
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#170
Layups/Dunks+0.9#131
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#5
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#91
Freethrows+4.0#7
Improvement-0.8#221
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 38.2% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 85.2% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 99.8% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed 1.1 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round99.3% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen87.3% n/a n/a
Elite Eight68.1% n/a n/a
Final Four46.3% n/a n/a
Championship Game28.7% n/a n/a
National Champion16.7% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a8.0 - 3.08.0 - 3.0
Quad 1b4.0 - 0.012.0 - 3.0
Quad 24.0 - 0.016.0 - 3.0
Quad 36.0 - 0.022.0 - 3.0
Quad 47.0 - 0.029.0 - 3.0


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 276   Towson W 73-42 99%     1 - 0 +21.6 +12.8 +16.4
  Nov 11, 2018 270   George Washington W 76-57 99%     2 - 0 +9.9 +5.2 +5.7
  Nov 16, 2018 343   Coppin St. W 97-40 99.8%    3 - 0 +39.2 +28.0 +16.5
  Nov 21, 2018 239   Middle Tennessee W 74-52 99%     4 - 0 +17.5 +4.7 +14.1
  Nov 22, 2018 63   Dayton W 66-59 92%     5 - 0 +14.8 +14.4 +2.4
  Nov 23, 2018 14   Wisconsin W 53-46 75%     6 - 0 +22.9 +2.6 +21.7
  Nov 28, 2018 23   @ Maryland W 76-71 72%     7 - 0 +21.8 +23.9 -1.3
  Dec 03, 2018 338   Morgan St. W 83-45 99.8%    8 - 0 +21.3 +3.7 +17.7
  Dec 09, 2018 44   Virginia Commonwealth W 57-49 91%     9 - 0 +15.9 +3.4 +14.0
  Dec 19, 2018 62   @ South Carolina W 69-52 87%     10 - 0 +27.6 +12.7 +17.5
  Dec 22, 2018 209   William & Mary W 72-40 99%     11 - 0 +26.6 +11.4 +22.2
  Dec 31, 2018 171   Marshall W 100-64 98%     12 - 0 +32.6 +15.0 +14.9
  Jan 05, 2019 13   Florida St. W 65-52 81%     13 - 0 1 - 0 +26.6 +7.7 +20.2
  Jan 09, 2019 106   @ Boston College W 83-56 92%     14 - 0 2 - 0 +34.4 +20.4 +16.3
  Jan 12, 2019 29   @ Clemson W 63-43 76%     15 - 0 3 - 0 +35.5 +10.5 +28.1
  Jan 15, 2019 12   Virginia Tech W 81-59 81%     16 - 0 4 - 0 +35.6 +33.9 +7.2
  Jan 19, 2019 3   @ Duke L 70-72 41%     16 - 1 4 - 1 +23.3 +17.6 +5.5
  Jan 22, 2019 153   Wake Forest W 68-45 98%     17 - 1 5 - 1 +21.1 +4.6 +20.0
  Jan 26, 2019 77   @ Notre Dame W 82-55 90%     18 - 1 6 - 1 +36.0 +24.9 +14.8
  Jan 29, 2019 31   @ North Carolina St. W 66-65 OT 77%     19 - 1 7 - 1 +16.2 +4.4 +11.8
  Feb 02, 2019 66   Miami (FL) W 56-46 94%     20 - 1 8 - 1 +14.9 -4.6 +21.4
  Feb 09, 2019 3   Duke L 71-81 62%     20 - 2 8 - 2 +9.8 +15.7 -7.0
  Feb 11, 2019 4   @ North Carolina W 69-61 45%     21 - 2 9 - 2 +32.3 +18.2 +15.4
  Feb 16, 2019 77   Notre Dame W 60-54 95%     22 - 2 10 - 2 +9.5 -2.2 +12.6
  Feb 18, 2019 12   @ Virginia Tech W 64-58 65%     23 - 2 11 - 2 +25.1 +11.4 +14.9
  Feb 23, 2019 19   @ Louisville W 64-52 70%     24 - 2 12 - 2 +29.7 +15.3 +17.1
  Feb 27, 2019 100   Georgia Tech W 81-51 96%     25 - 2 13 - 2 +32.0 +26.4 +10.9
  Mar 02, 2019 93   Pittsburgh W 73-49 96%     26 - 2 14 - 2 +26.6 +15.3 +15.3
  Mar 04, 2019 33   @ Syracuse W 79-53 79%     27 - 2 15 - 2 +40.5 +29.1 +16.2
  Mar 09, 2019 19   Louisville W 73-68 85%     28 - 2 16 - 2 +17.1 +19.4 -1.5
  Mar 14, 2019 31   North Carolina St. W 76-56 84%     29 - 2 +32.4 +18.6 +16.3
  Mar 15, 2019 13   Florida St. L 59-69 74%     29 - 3 +6.3 +7.5 -3.2
Projected Record 29.0 - 3.0 16.0 - 2.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 100.0    100.0
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.1 85.2 14.6 0.2 100.0%
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 85.2 14.6 0.2 100.0%