Preseason Rankings
Big East
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
8 Villanova 90.7%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 8 13 - 5 +16.7      +10.8 7 +6.0 22 69.0 179 0.0 1 0.0 1
24 Marquette 67.5%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 10 - 8 +12.6      +10.1 8 +2.5 96 71.4 112 0.0 1 0.0 1
31 St. John's 51.2%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 10 - 8 +11.5      +6.8 30 +4.7 42 71.3 116 0.0 1 0.0 1
33 Butler 54.8%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 9 - 9 +11.1      +6.1 39 +5.0 36 68.5 194 0.0 1 0.0 1
41 Creighton 50.0%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 9 +10.3      +6.1 40 +4.2 55 75.2 49 0.0 1 0.0 1
44 Xavier 45.3%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 9 - 9 +10.0      +6.4 35 +3.6 66 73.8 65 0.0 1 0.0 1
47 Providence 43.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 9 - 9 +9.7      +4.2 68 +5.6 28 67.4 220 0.0 1 0.0 1
52 Seton Hall 42.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 8 - 10 +9.5      +5.5 50 +4.0 59 71.6 104 0.0 1 0.0 1
69 Georgetown 28.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 14 7 - 11 +7.9      +4.9 60 +3.0 82 73.8 63 0.0 1 0.0 1
89 DePaul 12.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 6 - 12 +5.4      +1.9 111 +3.5 68 72.4 90 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Villanova 2.5 44.8 19.8 11.7 8.2 5.9 3.8 2.7 1.6 0.9 0.5
Marquette 4.2 17.1 16.6 14.3 11.8 10.3 9.1 7.5 6.1 4.5 2.6
St. John's 4.7 12.3 13.1 13.1 12.4 11.6 10.4 9.2 7.3 6.3 4.3
Butler 4.9 10.8 12.3 13.1 12.3 11.5 10.3 9.7 7.9 7.2 4.9
Creighton 5.3 8.4 10.7 11.5 11.9 11.2 10.9 10.1 10.2 8.5 6.5
Xavier 5.4 8.6 10.1 10.9 11.2 11.5 10.9 10.8 10.1 9.2 6.7
Providence 5.5 7.2 9.0 10.9 11.8 11.0 11.3 10.9 10.7 9.8 7.5
Seton Hall 5.6 6.6 9.2 10.5 10.8 11.3 11.2 11.6 10.4 10.1 8.2
Georgetown 6.4 4.1 5.7 7.7 8.5 9.4 10.8 12.4 13.2 14.2 14.0
DePaul 7.5 1.6 2.6 4.2 5.6 7.1 9.2 10.8 14.3 18.5 26.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Villanova 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.6 5.7 7.6 9.2 10.9 12.6 13.3 13.0 9.9 6.7 2.5
Marquette 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.4 3.6 5.3 7.0 9.4 9.9 10.9 11.2 11.1 9.3 7.6 5.3 3.3 1.5 0.5
St. John's 10 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.2 4.7 6.9 8.7 10.1 11.6 11.5 10.5 9.2 7.6 5.7 4.0 2.1 0.9 0.2
Butler 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 3.7 5.7 7.3 8.7 10.2 11.3 11.3 10.5 9.5 7.2 5.0 3.1 1.8 0.6 0.2
Creighton 9 - 9 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.8 6.7 8.8 9.6 10.7 11.3 11.2 9.7 7.5 5.9 4.1 2.5 1.5 0.4 0.1
Xavier 9 - 9 0.2 0.6 1.7 2.8 5.0 7.0 8.9 9.9 11.8 11.0 10.3 9.2 7.3 5.9 4.4 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.1
Providence 9 - 9 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.4 5.4 7.9 8.7 10.6 11.5 11.1 10.4 9.2 7.3 4.8 3.5 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1
Seton Hall 8 - 10 0.3 0.8 2.3 3.5 5.6 7.4 9.6 10.4 11.3 11.6 10.0 8.5 7.3 5.0 3.2 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1
Georgetown 7 - 11 0.6 1.9 3.4 6.5 7.9 10.6 11.4 11.3 10.7 9.7 8.4 6.5 4.4 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
DePaul 6 - 12 1.7 4.2 7.4 9.9 11.9 12.5 12.3 10.6 8.9 7.4 5.0 3.3 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Villanova 44.8% 34.1 8.8 1.6 0.2 0.0
Marquette 17.1% 11.1 4.8 1.0 0.1 0.0
St. John's 12.3% 8.0 3.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
Butler 10.8% 6.8 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
Creighton 8.4% 5.2 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
Xavier 8.6% 5.1 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0
Providence 7.2% 4.4 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Seton Hall 6.6% 3.7 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
Georgetown 4.1% 2.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
DePaul 1.6% 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Villanova 90.7% 28.0% 62.6% 2   18.8 16.4 11.7 9.6 8.1 5.5 5.5 4.6 4.0 3.5 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 87.0%
Marquette 67.5% 13.4% 54.1% 7   4.3 5.7 7.0 6.7 6.9 7.0 7.3 6.5 5.4 5.4 3.8 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 32.5 62.5%
St. John's 51.2% 11.0% 40.1% 10   1.3 2.4 3.9 3.8 4.2 4.4 5.3 5.9 5.2 5.9 5.8 2.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 48.8 45.1%
Butler 54.8% 9.4% 45.4% 10   2.3 2.9 4.5 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.7 5.6 6.2 5.9 4.6 1.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 45.2 50.1%
Creighton 50.0% 8.0% 42.0% 9   2.0 3.3 3.9 4.4 4.8 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.3 4.5 3.6 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 50.0 45.6%
Xavier 45.3% 8.1% 37.2% 11   1.3 2.2 3.4 3.7 4.1 4.8 4.9 5.1 4.6 4.8 4.1 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 54.7 40.5%
Providence 43.9% 7.5% 36.4% 1.2 1.7 2.3 3.4 3.6 4.0 5.1 5.0 5.3 5.0 4.6 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 56.1 39.3%
Seton Hall 42.9% 7.0% 35.9% 1.1 2.1 3.0 3.4 3.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.3 3.9 3.2 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 57.1 38.6%
Georgetown 28.2% 4.8% 23.5% 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.6 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.5 3.5 3.7 4.2 1.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 71.8 24.6%
DePaul 12.9% 2.7% 10.2% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 87.1 10.5%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Villanova 90.7% 1.8% 89.7% 72.6% 46.5% 27.7% 15.2% 8.2% 4.5%
Marquette 67.5% 3.3% 66.1% 44.2% 22.1% 11.0% 5.1% 2.4% 1.1%
St. John's 51.2% 5.6% 48.5% 30.1% 13.9% 6.4% 2.7% 1.2% 0.6%
Butler 54.8% 4.4% 52.6% 33.2% 15.5% 6.9% 3.2% 1.4% 0.6%
Creighton 50.0% 3.3% 48.4% 29.4% 13.1% 5.5% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2%
Xavier 45.3% 4.1% 43.4% 26.4% 11.3% 4.6% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3%
Providence 43.9% 4.8% 41.5% 24.2% 9.7% 4.1% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
Seton Hall 42.9% 3.2% 41.3% 24.1% 10.1% 4.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Georgetown 28.2% 3.9% 26.1% 14.1% 5.2% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
DePaul 12.9% 2.3% 11.7% 5.4% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.9 0.1 1.5 9.3 26.4 33.6 21.7 6.5 0.8 0.0 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 4.7 0.3 2.2 11.9 29.1 32.4 18.8 4.8 0.5 0.0 0.0
2nd Round 99.1% 3.0 0.9 7.7 24.0 33.3 24.5 7.9 1.7 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 85.8% 1.5 14.2 39.0 32.5 12.2 1.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Elite Eight 57.1% 0.7 42.9 42.9 12.8 1.4 0.1
Final Four 31.5% 0.3 68.5 28.3 3.1 0.1
Final Game 15.8% 0.2 84.2 15.4 0.5
Champion 7.9% 0.1 92.1 7.9