IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Abilene Christian
Southland
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.0	#230
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.7	#158
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.7	#253

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.3	#215

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	20.7%	24.0%	12.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.3	15.2	15.7

.500 or above	57.9%	66.1%	38.5%
.500 or above in Conference	71.4%	75.6%	61.6%
Conference Champion	9.2%	11.0%	4.9%
Last Place in Conference	2.8%	2.1%	4.2%

First Four	8.0%	8.4%	7.0%
First Round	16.6%	19.8%	9.2%
Second Round	0.7%	0.8%	0.4%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Home) - 70.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 0.7	0.0 - 0.7
Quad 1b	0.0 - 0.3	0.0 - 1.0
Quad 2	0.1 - 0.7	0.1 - 1.7
Quad 3	1.6 - 3.9	1.7 - 5.6
Quad 4	12.6 - 7.1	14.3 - 12.7

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2018	286	Arkansas St.	W	76-73	70%
Nov 15, 2018	200	@ Denver	L	69-71	33%
Nov 22, 2018	231	Elon	W	72-71	49%
Nov 23, 2018	168	@ Pacific	L	69-73	27%
Nov 24, 2018	282	UC Riverside	W	70-68	59%
Dec 01, 2018	234	@ Pepperdine	W	73-72	40%
Dec 04, 2018	254	Campbell	W	73-72	64%
Dec 15, 2018	29	@ Texas Tech	L	61-77	5%
Dec 21, 2018	308	@ Southeast Missouri St.	W	77-72	56%
Jan 02, 2019	292	New Orleans	W	70-67	71%
Jan 05, 2019	258	@ Sam Houston St.	W	69-68	45%
Jan 09, 2019	304	@ McNeese St.	W	75-71	54%
Jan 12, 2019	236	@ SE Louisiana	W	69-68	41%
Jan 16, 2019	312	Houston Baptist	W	81-76	75%
Jan 19, 2019	328	Northwestern St.	W	73-66	81%
Jan 23, 2019	105	@ Stephen F. Austin	L	69-77	18%
Jan 26, 2019	303	Central Arkansas	W	79-75	72%
Jan 30, 2019	309	TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	71-66	74%
Feb 06, 2019	227	@ Lamar	L	70-71	39%
Feb 09, 2019	258	Sam Houston St.	W	69-68	65%
Feb 13, 2019	263	@ Nicholls St.	W	77-75	46%
Feb 16, 2019	330	@ Incarnate Word	W	76-69	65%
Feb 23, 2019	236	SE Louisiana	W	69-68	60%
Feb 27, 2019	309	@ TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	71-66	56%
Mar 02, 2019	303	@ Central Arkansas	W	79-75	52%
Mar 05, 2019	105	Stephen F. Austin	L	69-77	34%
Mar 09, 2019	330	Incarnate Word	W	76-69	80%
Projected Record						14.3 - 12.7	10.3 - 7.7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southland Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.6	1.9	3.0	2.3	0.9	0.4		9.2	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	2.2	4.7	4.2	1.6	0.4	0.0			13.4	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.5	2.5	5.4	3.9	1.1	0.0					13.4	3rd
4th									0.0	0.3	2.2	4.7	3.2	0.7	0.0						11.0	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	1.8	4.9	3.3	0.6	0.1							10.7	5th
6th								0.1	1.3	4.3	3.2	0.7	0.0								9.6	6th
7th							0.0	0.7	3.1	3.5	0.8	0.0									8.2	7th
8th							0.2	2.3	3.2	1.0	0.1										6.7	8th
9th					0.0	0.2	1.3	2.9	1.3	0.1											5.8	9th
10th					0.1	0.9	2.1	1.2	0.2												4.3	10th
11th			0.0	0.1	0.6	1.6	1.1	0.2	0.0												3.6	11th
12th			0.2	0.5	1.1	0.7	0.2	0.0													2.6	12th
13th	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0														1.4	13th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.5	1.0	2.2	3.5	4.8	7.3	9.1	10.9	11.7	11.5	11.5	10.0	7.2	4.6	2.7	0.9	0.4			Total

Southland Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.4		0.4
17-1	98.5%	0.9		0.8	0.1
16-2	85.6%	2.3		1.8	0.5	0.0
15-3	64.9%	3.0		1.7	1.2	0.1	0.0
14-4	26.1%	1.9		0.8	0.9	0.2	0.1
13-5	6.4%	0.6		0.1	0.3	0.3	0.0
12-6	0.8%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0			0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	9.2%	9.2		5.5	2.9	0.6	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.4%		85.2%	85.2%		12.3						0.0	0.0			0.0		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.1
17-1	0.9%		76.0%	75.9%	0.1%	13.7										0.0		0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.2		0.2%
16-2	2.7%		64.5%	64.5%		14.4													0.1	0.2	0.7	0.6	0.2	0.9
15-3	4.6%		59.3%	59.3%		14.7												0.0	0.0	0.3	0.7	1.2	0.5	1.9
14-4	7.2%		46.8%	46.8%		15.2													0.0	0.1	0.5	1.5	1.2	3.9
13-5	10.0%		37.9%	37.9%		15.6														0.0	0.2	1.0	2.5	6.2
12-6	11.5%		27.4%	27.4%		15.9														0.0	0.0	0.5	2.6	8.3
11-7	11.5%		17.9%	17.9%		15.9															0.0	0.2	1.9	9.4
10-8	11.7%		12.3%	12.3%		16.0																0.0	1.4	10.3
9-9	10.9%		6.7%	6.7%		16.0															0.0	0.0	0.7	10.2
8-10	9.1%		4.9%	4.9%		16.0																	0.5	8.7
7-11	7.3%		2.4%	2.4%		16.0																	0.2	7.1
6-12	4.8%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.0	4.8
5-13	3.5%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.0	3.4
4-14	2.2%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	2.2
3-15	1.0%																							1.0
2-16	0.5%																							0.5
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		20.7%	20.7%	0.0%	15.3						0.0	0.0			0.0		0.1	0.2	1.0	2.4	5.3	11.8	79.3		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	11.8						3.7						96.3