IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Idaho St.
Big Sky
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.9	#247
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.3	#177
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.3	#208

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.6	#288

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.5%	4.9%	2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.9	14.1	14.9

.500 or above	27.1%	69.8%	26.8%
.500 or above in Conference	45.1%	79.1%	44.9%
Conference Champion	3.0%	7.5%	3.0%
Last Place in Conference	9.8%	2.6%	9.9%

First Four	0.6%	0.0%	0.6%
First Round	2.2%	4.9%	2.2%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Gonzaga (Away) - 0.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 1.1	0.0 - 1.1
Quad 1b	0.0 - 0.6	0.0 - 1.7
Quad 2	0.3 - 2.4	0.3 - 4.2
Quad 3	2.2 - 6.2	2.5 - 10.4
Quad 4	8.3 - 5.8	10.9 - 16.1

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	5	@ Gonzaga	L	64-87	1%
Nov 10, 2018	95	@ Boise St.	L	68-78	11%
Nov 15, 2018	168	Pacific	L	70-75	45%
Nov 26, 2018	234	@ Pepperdine	L	74-75	37%
Dec 07, 2018	217	@ Santa Clara	L	68-70	35%
Dec 19, 2018	152	@ Utah Valley	L	70-76	23%
Dec 22, 2018	177	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	70-74	27%
Dec 29, 2018	262	@ Idaho	W	70-69	43%
Dec 31, 2018	174	@ Eastern Washington	L	70-74	26%
Jan 03, 2019	295	Southern Utah	W	78-75	69%
Jan 05, 2019	326	Northern Arizona	W	74-68	77%
Jan 12, 2019	257	@ Sacramento St.	W	71-70	42%
Jan 17, 2019	147	@ Weber St.	L	70-76	22%
Jan 21, 2019	172	Northern Colorado	L	74-78	47%
Jan 24, 2019	73	@ Montana	L	67-79	11%
Jan 26, 2019	251	@ Montana St.	W	77-76	41%
Jan 31, 2019	257	Sacramento St.	W	71-70	62%
Feb 02, 2019	246	Portland St.	L	80-81	60%
Feb 07, 2019	326	@ Northern Arizona	W	74-68	59%
Feb 09, 2019	295	@ Southern Utah	W	78-75	49%
Feb 14, 2019	251	Montana St.	W	77-76	60%
Feb 16, 2019	73	Montana	L	67-79	24%
Feb 21, 2019	246	@ Portland St.	L	80-81	39%
Mar 02, 2019	172	@ Northern Colorado	L	74-78	27%
Mar 04, 2019	147	Weber St.	L	70-76	40%
Mar 07, 2019	174	Eastern Washington	L	70-74	46%
Mar 09, 2019	262	Idaho	W	70-69	62%
Projected Record						10.9 - 16.1	9.1 - 10.9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.3	0.6	1.0	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0		3.0	1st
2nd												0.0	0.3	1.1	1.8	1.8	1.0	0.2	0.0				6.2	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.1	0.7	2.3	3.2	2.1	0.6	0.1	0.0					9.1	3rd
4th										0.2	1.1	3.1	3.6	2.1	0.4	0.0							10.5	4th
5th								0.0	0.2	1.5	4.1	4.1	1.7	0.3	0.0								11.9	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	1.7	4.7	3.8	1.1	0.2	0.0									11.7	6th
7th						0.0	0.3	1.9	4.5	3.8	1.0	0.1											11.5	7th
8th					0.0	0.5	2.2	4.3	2.9	0.8	0.1												10.7	8th
9th				0.0	0.7	2.4	3.9	2.8	0.5	0.1													10.4	9th
10th		0.0	0.1	1.1	2.4	3.0	1.7	0.3	0.0														8.7	10th
11th	0.1	0.9	1.3	1.9	1.5	0.5	0.1	0.0															6.3	11th

Total	0.1	0.9	1.4	3.0	4.6	6.3	8.3	9.4	9.8	11.0	10.2	9.2	8.1	6.8	4.6	2.9	2.1	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
18-2	95.1%	0.3		0.3	0.0
17-3	70.7%	0.6		0.3	0.2	0.0
16-4	47.9%	1.0		0.5	0.4	0.2
15-5	19.7%	0.6		0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0
14-6	6.5%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
13-7	0.6%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	3.0%	3.0		1.5	1.0	0.3	0.1

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%		98.2%	98.2%		12.5												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
19-1	0.1%		41.6%	41.6%		13.0												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1
18-2	0.4%		33.0%	33.0%		13.0												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.2
17-3	0.8%		23.2%	23.1%	0.1%	13.6													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.6		0.1%
16-4	2.1%		12.1%	12.1%		14.6													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.8
15-5	2.9%		15.0%	15.0%		14.6													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	2.5
14-6	4.6%		8.3%	8.3%		15.0														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	4.2
13-7	6.8%		5.6%	5.6%		15.4														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	6.4
12-8	8.1%		3.2%	3.2%		15.7																0.1	0.2	7.8
11-9	9.2%		1.5%	1.5%		15.8																0.0	0.1	9.0
10-10	10.2%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.1	10.1
9-11	11.0%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.1	10.9
8-12	9.8%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	9.7
7-13	9.4%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	9.4
6-14	8.3%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	8.3
5-15	6.3%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	6.3
4-16	4.6%																							4.6
3-17	3.0%																							3.0
2-18	1.4%																							1.4
1-19	0.9%																							0.9
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		2.5%	2.5%	0.0%	14.9												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.7	1.0	97.5		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%