Preseason Rankings
Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#116
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace59.1#352
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#163
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#76
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.0% 16.3% 8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.8% 4.9% 1.3%
Average Seed 11.8 11.6 13.0
.500 or above 61.7% 69.4% 42.8%
.500 or above in Conference 63.5% 68.4% 51.7%
Conference Champion 12.1% 14.1% 7.2%
Last Place in Conference 5.8% 4.5% 9.1%
First Four2.1% 2.5% 1.2%
First Round12.8% 14.8% 7.7%
Second Round3.5% 4.3% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.4% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Away) - 71.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 0.60.1 - 0.6
Quad 1b0.4 - 1.40.5 - 2.0
Quad 21.9 - 3.82.4 - 5.9
Quad 36.5 - 5.58.9 - 11.4
Quad 47.1 - 1.716.0 - 13.0


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 256   @ Texas Arlington W 72-63 71%    
  Nov 16, 2018 125   Penn W 65-64 53%    
  Nov 17, 2018 273   Eastern Kentucky W 70-61 80%    
  Nov 19, 2018 102   Old Dominion L 59-60 48%    
  Nov 23, 2018 102   @ Old Dominion L 59-60 37%    
  Nov 28, 2018 144   @ Utah St. W 66-64 47%    
  Dec 01, 2018 79   South Dakota St. L 68-71 40%    
  Dec 15, 2018 34   Iowa L 66-74 25%    
  Dec 19, 2018 114   Grand Canyon L 63-64 61%    
  Dec 22, 2018 271   North Dakota W 72-63 85%    
  Dec 29, 2018 222   Stony Brook W 66-59 80%    
  Jan 02, 2019 117   @ Bradley W 62-61 40%    
  Jan 05, 2019 104   Southern Illinois L 63-64 57%    
  Jan 08, 2019 75   @ Illinois St. L 65-68 30%    
  Jan 13, 2019 202   Drake W 68-62 76%    
  Jan 16, 2019 161   Indiana St. W 66-63 70%    
  Jan 19, 2019 120   @ Valparaiso W 65-64 41%    
  Jan 23, 2019 104   @ Southern Illinois L 63-64 38%    
  Jan 26, 2019 196   Evansville W 62-57 77%    
  Jan 30, 2019 67   @ Loyola Chicago L 60-64 26%    
  Feb 02, 2019 190   Missouri St. W 65-60 75%    
  Feb 06, 2019 117   Bradley W 62-61 61%    
  Feb 09, 2019 202   @ Drake W 68-62 59%    
  Feb 13, 2019 75   Illinois St. L 65-68 49%    
  Feb 17, 2019 196   @ Evansville W 62-57 57%    
  Feb 20, 2019 190   @ Missouri St. W 65-60 57%    
  Feb 23, 2019 120   Valparaiso W 65-64 60%    
  Feb 27, 2019 67   Loyola Chicago L 60-64 45%    
  Mar 02, 2019 161   @ Indiana St. W 66-63 50%    
Projected Record 16.0 - 13.0 9.7 - 8.3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.4 3.0 2.0 0.9 0.2 12.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.5 4.5 2.6 0.7 0.1 12.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.6 4.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 12.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.6 5.1 3.7 1.3 0.1 13.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.3 3.7 0.6 0.1 12.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.7 3.1 0.4 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.0 2.4 0.3 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.5 2.2 1.2 0.1 5.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 3.5 10th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.9 2.8 5.0 6.9 8.6 10.2 11.4 11.3 10.2 9.5 7.9 6.3 3.7 2.1 0.9 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 97.5% 2.0    1.7 0.3 0.0
15-3 80.9% 3.0    2.1 0.8 0.0
14-4 53.7% 3.4    1.9 1.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 24.7% 2.0    0.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.2% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.1% 12.1 7.7 3.6 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 85.3% 61.8% 23.5% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 61.4%
17-1 0.9% 85.1% 50.7% 34.4% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 69.8%
16-2 2.1% 77.6% 41.7% 35.9% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.5 61.6%
15-3 3.7% 54.1% 28.0% 26.1% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.7 36.2%
14-4 6.3% 40.4% 26.7% 13.6% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 3.8 18.6%
13-5 7.9% 22.2% 17.6% 4.6% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.2 5.5%
12-6 9.5% 16.0% 14.8% 1.2% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.0 1.4%
11-7 10.2% 10.6% 10.3% 0.3% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 9.1 0.3%
10-8 11.3% 8.8% 8.7% 0.1% 13.9 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 10.3 0.1%
9-9 11.4% 6.4% 6.4% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 10.7
8-10 10.2% 3.6% 3.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.8
7-11 8.6% 3.0% 3.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.4
6-12 6.9% 1.6% 1.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.8
5-13 5.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.0 5.0
4-14 2.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.8
3-15 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.9
2-16 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.7
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 14.0% 10.5% 3.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 2.3 3.2 2.4 1.6 1.1 0.6 86.0 3.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.9 6.1 6.1 84.8 3.0