Preseason Rankings
SIU Edwardsville
Ohio Valley
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-9.7#320
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.1#122
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.7#298
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#326
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.5% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 14.4% 27.0% 9.6%
.500 or above in Conference 20.4% 29.5% 16.9%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.8% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 26.4% 17.7% 29.8%
First Four0.5% 0.9% 0.4%
First Round0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pacific (Home) - 27.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 0.30.0 - 0.3
Quad 1b0.0 - 0.90.0 - 1.2
Quad 20.2 - 2.70.3 - 3.9
Quad 31.3 - 6.31.5 - 10.2
Quad 47.5 - 8.89.0 - 19.0


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 168   Pacific L 68-77 28%    
  Nov 10, 2018 194   Winthrop L 73-81 33%    
  Nov 21, 2018 120   @ Valparaiso L 66-79 8%    
  Nov 25, 2018 330   Incarnate Word W 75-73 66%    
  Nov 28, 2018 270   @ Western Illinois L 70-74 28%    
  Dec 01, 2018 104   Southern Illinois L 64-78 17%    
  Dec 17, 2018 202   @ Drake L 70-77 18%    
  Dec 19, 2018 191   @ Washington St. L 71-79 17%    
  Dec 22, 2018 342   Cal St. Northridge W 72-68 65%    
  Dec 23, 2018 172   Northern Colorado L 71-80 21%    
  Jan 03, 2019 308   Southeast Missouri St. L 75-76 58%    
  Jan 05, 2019 298   @ Eastern Illinois L 68-70 34%    
  Jan 10, 2019 287   @ Tennessee Tech L 72-75 31%    
  Jan 12, 2019 146   @ Jacksonville St. L 64-75 12%    
  Jan 17, 2019 188   Austin Peay L 71-79 33%    
  Jan 19, 2019 151   Murray St. L 66-77 26%    
  Jan 24, 2019 308   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 75-76 37%    
  Jan 26, 2019 285   @ Tennessee Martin L 68-71 31%    
  Jan 31, 2019 224   Morehead St. L 70-76 41%    
  Feb 02, 2019 273   Eastern Kentucky L 72-76 47%    
  Feb 07, 2019 188   @ Austin Peay L 71-79 17%    
  Feb 09, 2019 151   @ Murray St. L 66-77 13%    
  Feb 14, 2019 298   Eastern Illinois L 68-70 53%    
  Feb 16, 2019 285   Tennessee Martin L 68-71 50%    
  Feb 21, 2019 259   @ Tennessee St. L 65-69 29%    
  Feb 23, 2019 109   @ Belmont L 67-80 9%    
  Feb 28, 2019 287   Tennessee Tech L 72-75 50%    
  Mar 02, 2019 146   Jacksonville St. L 64-75 26%    
Projected Record 9.0 - 19.0 6.0 - 12.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.2 3.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.2 0.9 0.1 5.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.2 1.4 0.1 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.7 1.6 0.2 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 11.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.4 2.6 0.4 12.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 3.5 5.8 3.2 0.5 0.0 13.8 10th
11th 0.2 1.3 4.3 5.7 2.8 0.6 0.0 15.0 11th
12th 1.2 3.8 5.5 4.7 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.7 12th
Total 1.2 4.1 6.9 9.9 11.7 12.6 12.8 11.3 9.1 7.4 5.5 3.2 2.1 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 86.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 66.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 39.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 42.4% 42.4% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.3% 19.4% 19.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 0.8% 12.8% 12.8% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
13-5 1.0% 7.8% 7.8% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
12-6 2.1% 4.2% 4.2% 15.7 0.0 0.1 2.0
11-7 3.2% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 3.1
10-8 5.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.4
9-9 7.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 7.3
8-10 9.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.0
7-11 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.3
6-12 12.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.8
5-13 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.6
4-14 11.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.7
3-15 9.9% 9.9
2-16 6.9% 6.9
1-17 4.1% 4.1
0-18 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%