IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.5	#257
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.1	#303
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.6	#248

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.9	#278

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.2%	2.5%	1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.0	14.9	15.4

.500 or above	30.5%	37.1%	12.9%
.500 or above in Conference	40.3%	45.4%	26.9%
Conference Champion	2.3%	2.8%	0.9%
Last Place in Conference	12.4%	9.8%	19.3%

First Four	0.7%	0.7%	0.6%
First Round	1.7%	2.1%	0.7%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Home) - 72.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 0.5	0.0 - 0.5
Quad 1b	0.0 - 0.7	0.0 - 1.2
Quad 2	0.2 - 1.7	0.2 - 2.9
Quad 3	1.6 - 5.6	1.8 - 8.5
Quad 4	9.5 - 7.2	11.3 - 15.7

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 16, 2018	317	Cal Poly	W	70-66	73%
Nov 20, 2018	131	UC Davis	L	63-71	22%
Nov 24, 2018	143	Cal St. Fullerton	L	67-74	37%
Nov 29, 2018	177	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	66-71	25%
Dec 01, 2018	342	@ Cal St. Northridge	W	71-62	69%
Dec 08, 2018	241	@ Portland	L	68-69	36%
Dec 21, 2018	42	@ Washington	L	63-79	5%
Dec 29, 2018	172	Northern Colorado	L	69-74	42%
Jan 03, 2019	73	@ Montana	L	63-76	9%
Jan 05, 2019	251	@ Montana St.	L	72-73	39%
Jan 12, 2019	247	Idaho St.	L	70-71	58%
Jan 17, 2019	326	@ Northern Arizona	W	70-65	57%
Jan 19, 2019	295	@ Southern Utah	W	74-72	47%
Jan 24, 2019	262	Idaho	W	67-66	61%
Jan 26, 2019	174	Eastern Washington	L	66-71	43%
Jan 31, 2019	247	@ Idaho St.	L	70-71	38%
Feb 02, 2019	147	@ Weber St.	L	66-73	21%
Feb 09, 2019	172	@ Northern Colorado	L	69-74	25%
Feb 11, 2019	246	Portland St.	L	75-76	58%
Feb 14, 2019	295	Southern Utah	W	74-72	67%
Feb 16, 2019	326	Northern Arizona	W	70-65	75%
Feb 21, 2019	147	Weber St.	L	66-73	39%
Feb 23, 2019	246	@ Portland St.	L	75-76	38%
Feb 28, 2019	174	@ Eastern Washington	L	66-71	26%
Mar 02, 2019	262	@ Idaho	W	67-66	41%
Mar 07, 2019	251	Montana St.	L	72-73	58%
Mar 09, 2019	73	Montana	L	63-76	22%
Projected Record						11.3 - 15.7	8.6 - 11.4

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0		2.3	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	0.8	1.8	1.6	0.8	0.2	0.0				5.4	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.1	0.7	1.9	2.5	1.6	0.5	0.1	0.0					7.4	3rd
4th										0.1	1.1	3.1	3.5	1.6	0.3	0.0							9.7	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	1.4	4.1	3.6	1.3	0.3	0.0								10.9	5th
6th							0.0	0.3	1.9	4.1	3.9	1.3	0.1										11.6	6th
7th						0.0	0.4	1.8	4.9	3.7	0.9	0.1	0.0										11.9	7th
8th					0.0	0.4	2.6	4.4	2.9	1.0	0.1												11.4	8th
9th			0.0	0.1	0.6	3.0	4.2	2.5	0.5	0.0													10.9	9th
10th		0.0	0.3	1.4	3.1	3.4	1.8	0.4	0.1														10.5	10th
11th	0.3	0.8	1.8	2.5	1.8	0.7	0.2	0.0															8.1	11th

Total	0.3	0.8	2.1	4.0	5.6	7.5	9.1	9.4	10.5	10.5	10.1	8.8	7.1	5.2	3.9	2.5	1.5	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
18-2	89.9%	0.3		0.2	0.1
17-3	79.4%	0.7		0.5	0.1	0.0
16-4	42.5%	0.6		0.4	0.2	0.0
15-5	16.9%	0.4		0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0
14-6	3.6%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	1.6%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.2%	0.0				0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	2.3%	2.3		1.3	0.8	0.1	0.1

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%		97.0%	93.9%	3.0%	9.2							0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0				0.0		50.0%
19-1	0.1%		51.1%	36.0%	15.2%	11.2											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0		23.7%
18-2	0.3%		25.7%	21.2%	4.5%	13.0													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.2		5.7%
17-3	0.8%		22.7%	21.1%	1.6%	13.6													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0		0.6		2.0%
16-4	1.5%		15.2%	15.2%	0.0%	14.5													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.2		0.0%
15-5	2.5%		11.8%	11.8%		14.5													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	2.2
14-6	3.9%		8.0%	8.0%		15.5													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	3.6
13-7	5.2%		5.5%	5.5%		15.5															0.0	0.1	0.2	4.9
12-8	7.1%		3.3%	3.3%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.2	6.9
11-9	8.8%		1.6%	1.6%		16.0															0.0	0.0	0.1	8.6
10-10	10.1%		1.3%	1.3%		15.9																0.0	0.1	10.0
9-11	10.5%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	10.4
8-12	10.5%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	10.4
7-13	9.4%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	9.3
6-14	9.1%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	9.1
5-15	7.5%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	7.5
4-16	5.6%																							5.6
3-17	4.0%																							4.0
2-18	2.1%																							2.1
1-19	0.8%																							0.8
0-20	0.3%																							0.3

Total	100%		2.2%	2.1%	0.0%	15.0							0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.5	1.0	97.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%