IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Southern Utah
Big Sky
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.5	#295
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	76.1	#38
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.4	#266

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.1	#304

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.2%	1.7%	0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.2	15.1	15.4

.500 or above	15.9%	24.7%	8.0%
.500 or above in Conference	25.8%	32.8%	19.5%
Conference Champion	0.9%	1.5%	0.4%
Last Place in Conference	20.4%	16.1%	24.3%

First Four	0.5%	0.6%	0.4%
First Round	0.9%	1.5%	0.4%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: San Jose St. (Away) - 47.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 0.3	0.0 - 0.3
Quad 1b	0.0 - 0.7	0.0 - 1.0
Quad 2	0.2 - 2.4	0.2 - 3.5
Quad 3	1.5 - 6.6	1.7 - 10.1
Quad 4	7.5 - 7.7	9.2 - 17.8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 10, 2018	321	@ San Jose St.	W	73-71	47%
Nov 18, 2018	244	@ Seattle	L	73-76	29%
Nov 23, 2018	139	@ UNLV	L	77-87	12%
Dec 05, 2018	189	@ Long Beach St.	L	78-84	21%
Dec 08, 2018	219	@ Central Michigan	L	75-79	27%
Dec 15, 2018	234	Pepperdine	L	76-79	48%
Dec 21, 2018	58	@ USC	L	69-85	5%
Dec 29, 2018	251	Montana St.	L	78-80	53%
Dec 31, 2018	73	Montana	L	69-84	16%
Jan 03, 2019	247	@ Idaho St.	L	75-78	31%
Jan 05, 2019	147	@ Weber St.	L	71-80	16%
Jan 12, 2019	326	Northern Arizona	W	75-72	69%
Jan 17, 2019	246	Portland St.	L	82-85	51%
Jan 19, 2019	257	Sacramento St.	L	72-74	53%
Jan 24, 2019	172	@ Northern Colorado	L	75-82	21%
Jan 28, 2019	326	@ Northern Arizona	W	75-72	50%
Feb 02, 2019	174	@ Eastern Washington	L	71-78	21%
Feb 04, 2019	262	@ Idaho	L	71-73	35%
Feb 07, 2019	147	Weber St.	L	71-80	31%
Feb 09, 2019	247	Idaho St.	L	75-78	51%
Feb 14, 2019	257	@ Sacramento St.	L	72-74	33%
Feb 16, 2019	246	@ Portland St.	L	82-85	32%
Feb 21, 2019	174	Eastern Washington	L	71-78	37%
Feb 23, 2019	262	Idaho	L	71-73	55%
Mar 02, 2019	73	@ Montana	L	69-84	8%
Mar 04, 2019	251	@ Montana St.	L	78-80	33%
Mar 07, 2019	172	Northern Colorado	L	75-82	37%
Projected Record						9.2 - 17.8	7.3 - 12.7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.9	1st
2nd												0.0	0.1	0.6	0.9	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0				2.8	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.0	0.5	1.2	1.7	0.7	0.2	0.0						4.5	3rd
4th										0.1	0.8	2.3	2.3	0.8	0.2	0.0							6.5	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	1.0	3.0	2.6	0.9	0.2	0.0								7.7	5th
6th							0.0	0.3	1.5	4.0	2.8	0.8	0.0										9.4	6th
7th						0.0	0.4	2.2	4.7	3.4	0.8	0.1	0.0										11.6	7th
8th					0.0	0.5	3.2	5.0	3.4	0.7	0.0												12.8	8th
9th			0.0	0.1	1.1	4.0	5.8	2.9	0.8	0.0													14.8	9th
10th		0.1	0.6	2.4	4.6	4.5	2.5	0.4	0.0														15.1	10th
11th	0.5	1.9	3.1	4.2	2.8	1.1	0.2	0.0															13.8	11th

Total	0.5	2.0	3.7	6.7	8.5	10.1	12.0	10.8	10.5	9.2	7.5	6.3	4.6	3.3	1.9	1.2	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0
18-2	99.5%	0.1		0.1	0.0
17-3	63.4%	0.1		0.1	0.0
16-4	42.2%	0.3		0.2	0.1	0.0
15-5	16.1%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
14-6	5.7%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	1.6%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.9%	0.9		0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%																			0.0				0.0
19-1	0.0%		7.7%	7.7%		12.8												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
18-2	0.1%		65.9%	65.9%		13.0													0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
17-3	0.2%		39.2%	39.2%		13.5													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0		0.1
16-4	0.7%		13.0%	13.0%		14.0														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.6
15-5	1.2%		10.9%	10.9%		14.7														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.1
14-6	1.9%		7.2%	7.2%		15.1														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	1.7
13-7	3.3%		3.0%	3.0%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.1	3.2
12-8	4.6%		2.9%	2.9%		15.9																0.0	0.1	4.4
11-9	6.3%		1.5%	1.5%		16.0																0.0	0.1	6.2
10-10	7.5%		1.5%	1.5%		15.9																0.0	0.1	7.4
9-11	9.2%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	9.2
8-12	10.5%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.1	10.4
7-13	10.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.8
6-14	12.0%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	12.0
5-15	10.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.1
4-16	8.5%																							8.5
3-17	6.7%																							6.7
2-18	3.7%																							3.7
1-19	2.0%																							2.0
0-20	0.5%																							0.5

Total	100%		1.2%	1.2%	0.0%	15.2												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.6	98.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.3%