IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Utah St.
Mountain West
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	+1.4	#144
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.0	#228
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.6	#121

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.2	#172

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Top 4 Seed	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Top 6 Seed	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.2%	6.8%	2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	3.0%	4.1%	1.1%
Average Seed	10.7	10.5	11.5

.500 or above	47.0%	57.1%	29.8%
.500 or above in Conference	46.2%	52.5%	35.7%
Conference Champion	1.6%	2.2%	0.7%
Last Place in Conference	5.2%	3.6%	7.7%

First Four	1.3%	1.7%	0.7%
First Round	4.5%	5.8%	2.3%
Second Round	1.5%	1.9%	0.8%
Sweet Sixteen	0.4%	0.5%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Montana St. (Away) - 62.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.2 - 2.7	0.2 - 2.7
Quad 1b	0.4 - 2.3	0.6 - 4.9
Quad 2	1.2 - 3.8	1.8 - 8.7
Quad 3	3.9 - 4.6	5.7 - 13.3
Quad 4	8.5 - 2.5	14.2 - 15.8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	251	@ Montana St.	W	78-71	63%
Nov 09, 2018	193	Hartford	W	73-70	71%
Nov 13, 2018	344	Mississippi Valley	W	80-65	95%
Nov 16, 2018	152	Utah Valley	W	72-71	63%
Nov 19, 2018	59	St. Mary's	L	65-72	25%
Nov 21, 2018	43	Arizona St.	L	73-82	22%
Nov 28, 2018	116	Northern Iowa	L	64-66	53%
Dec 01, 2018	90	@ UC Irvine	L	67-71	27%
Dec 05, 2018	63	@ BYU	L	67-74	20%
Dec 08, 2018	147	Weber St.	W	72-71	51%
Dec 15, 2018	325	Alabama St.	W	79-67	89%
Dec 20, 2018	37	@ Houston	L	67-77	15%
Jan 02, 2019	7	@ Nevada	L	69-84	6%
Jan 05, 2019	212	Air Force	W	71-67	73%
Jan 09, 2019	91	Fresno St.	L	68-72	47%
Jan 12, 2019	173	@ Wyoming	W	78-76	47%
Jan 16, 2019	321	@ San Jose St.	W	73-62	75%
Jan 19, 2019	180	Colorado St.	W	74-72	67%
Jan 26, 2019	92	@ New Mexico	L	75-79	27%
Jan 30, 2019	321	San Jose St.	W	73-62	88%
Feb 02, 2019	139	UNLV	L	76-77	57%
Feb 05, 2019	91	@ Fresno St.	L	68-72	28%
Feb 09, 2019	45	@ San Diego St.	L	67-76	17%
Feb 13, 2019	173	Wyoming	W	78-76	66%
Feb 16, 2019	212	@ Air Force	W	71-67	55%
Feb 20, 2019	92	New Mexico	L	75-79	48%
Feb 23, 2019	95	@ Boise St.	L	69-73	29%
Feb 26, 2019	45	San Diego St.	L	67-76	32%
Mar 02, 2019	7	Nevada	L	69-84	16%
Mar 05, 2019	180	@ Colorado St.	W	74-72	47%
Projected Record						14.2 - 15.8	8.3 - 9.7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mountain West Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.0		1.6	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	1.2	1.9	1.5	0.5	0.1				5.4	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.6	2.5	3.1	2.0	0.4	0.0					8.7	3rd
4th									0.0	0.9	3.9	4.5	1.7	0.2	0.0						11.2	4th
5th								0.1	1.3	4.2	5.1	1.5	0.2								12.4	5th
6th							0.1	1.4	5.1	4.9	1.6	0.2	0.0								13.4	6th
7th					0.0	0.1	1.5	5.1	5.5	1.4	0.1										13.8	7th
8th				0.0	0.2	1.9	4.9	4.5	1.1	0.1											12.7	8th
9th				0.3	2.0	4.4	3.1	0.9	0.0												10.7	9th
10th		0.0	0.5	1.7	3.1	1.5	0.3	0.0													7.2	10th
11th	0.1	0.5	0.9	0.9	0.4	0.1															2.8	11th

Total	0.1	0.5	1.4	3.0	5.7	8.1	9.8	12.1	13.1	11.6	11.3	9.0	6.3	4.2	2.2	1.0	0.5	0.2	0.0			Total

Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
16-2	85.0%	0.4		0.3	0.1
15-3	48.2%	0.5		0.2	0.2	0.0
14-4	15.6%	0.3		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-5	4.5%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0
12-6	0.2%	0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	1.6%	1.6		0.8	0.6	0.1	0.0		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%							0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
17-1	0.2%		99.7%	30.6%	69.1%	5.8		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		99.6%
16-2	0.5%		89.7%	27.2%	62.5%	7.3		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0					0.1		85.9%
15-3	1.0%		66.1%	19.3%	46.8%	9.1					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0				0.3		58.0%
14-4	2.2%		39.0%	8.7%	30.3%	9.9					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0			1.3		33.2%
13-5	4.2%		22.5%	5.4%	17.1%	10.8							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		3.3		18.1%
12-6	6.3%		13.2%	6.4%	6.7%	11.4								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0		5.4		7.2%
11-7	9.0%		4.4%	2.6%	1.9%	12.0										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8.6		1.9%
10-8	11.3%		3.0%	2.5%	0.5%	13.1												0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	11.0		0.5%
9-9	11.6%		2.0%	2.0%	0.0%	14.0											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	11.4		0.0%
8-10	13.1%		1.2%	1.2%		13.7													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	13.0
7-11	12.1%		0.6%	0.6%		15.2														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	12.0
6-12	9.8%		0.5%	0.5%		14.8														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.8
5-13	8.1%		0.4%	0.4%		15.0															0.0	0.0	0.0	8.1
4-14	5.7%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	5.7
3-15	3.0%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.0	2.9
2-16	1.4%																							1.4
1-17	0.5%																							0.5
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		5.2%	2.3%	2.9%	10.7		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.7	1.2	0.9	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.2	94.8		3.0%