Preseason Rankings
Weber St.
Big Sky
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.1#147
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.2#201
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#136
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#162
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.8% 20.3% 12.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 1.8% 0.2%
Average Seed 13.7 13.2 14.1
.500 or above 79.9% 91.2% 74.5%
.500 or above in Conference 85.0% 91.3% 82.0%
Conference Champion 17.8% 24.9% 14.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.4% 1.4%
First Four1.3% 1.7% 1.2%
First Round14.2% 19.5% 11.7%
Second Round2.1% 3.1% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Away) - 32.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 0.30.0 - 0.3
Quad 1b0.2 - 0.80.2 - 1.1
Quad 20.9 - 2.21.1 - 3.3
Quad 33.8 - 4.04.8 - 7.3
Quad 413.3 - 3.518.2 - 10.8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 121   @ San Diego L 69-71 32%    
  Nov 15, 2018 321   San Jose St. W 74-63 84%    
  Nov 16, 2018 219   Central Michigan W 75-70 65%    
  Nov 18, 2018 204   Cal St. Bakersfield W 69-65 64%    
  Dec 01, 2018 63   BYU L 67-74 36%    
  Dec 05, 2018 91   @ Fresno St. L 68-72 27%    
  Dec 08, 2018 144   Utah St. L 71-72 49%    
  Dec 15, 2018 152   Utah Valley W 72-71 62%    
  Dec 22, 2018 351   Delaware St. W 77-59 96%    
  Dec 29, 2018 174   @ Eastern Washington W 72-70 46%    
  Dec 31, 2018 262   @ Idaho W 72-65 63%    
  Jan 03, 2019 326   Northern Arizona W 76-64 89%    
  Jan 05, 2019 295   Southern Utah W 80-71 84%    
  Jan 12, 2019 246   @ Portland St. W 82-76 60%    
  Jan 17, 2019 247   Idaho St. W 76-70 78%    
  Jan 19, 2019 172   Northern Colorado W 75-73 65%    
  Jan 24, 2019 251   @ Montana St. W 78-72 61%    
  Jan 26, 2019 73   @ Montana L 69-75 22%    
  Jan 31, 2019 246   Portland St. W 82-76 77%    
  Feb 02, 2019 257   Sacramento St. W 73-66 79%    
  Feb 07, 2019 295   @ Southern Utah W 80-71 69%    
  Feb 09, 2019 326   @ Northern Arizona W 76-64 77%    
  Feb 14, 2019 73   Montana L 69-75 41%    
  Feb 16, 2019 251   Montana St. W 78-72 78%    
  Feb 21, 2019 257   @ Sacramento St. W 73-66 62%    
  Feb 28, 2019 172   @ Northern Colorado W 75-73 46%    
  Mar 04, 2019 247   @ Idaho St. W 76-70 60%    
  Mar 07, 2019 262   Idaho W 72-65 79%    
  Mar 09, 2019 174   Eastern Washington W 72-70 65%    
Projected Record 18.2 - 10.8 13.0 - 7.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.3 5.2 4.2 2.2 0.5 17.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 2.2 5.7 6.2 5.4 2.4 0.5 22.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.3 5.7 5.1 2.5 0.5 0.0 17.9 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 3.3 4.5 3.1 0.9 0.1 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.7 3.8 1.9 0.4 0.1 9.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 2.1 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 6.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.7 0.8 0.1 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.4 3.8 5.3 7.0 9.1 10.4 11.5 12.3 10.6 9.1 7.6 4.7 2.2 0.5 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 2.2    2.1 0.1
18-2 88.8% 4.2    3.4 0.8 0.0
17-3 68.1% 5.2    3.4 1.6 0.1
16-4 35.7% 3.3    1.7 1.4 0.2
15-5 17.3% 1.8    0.7 0.8 0.4 0.0
14-6 4.9% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.8% 17.8 11.9 4.9 0.9 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 87.1% 70.4% 16.7% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 56.4%
19-1 2.2% 59.8% 49.5% 10.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 20.3%
18-2 4.7% 44.7% 41.6% 3.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.6 5.3%
17-3 7.6% 36.4% 35.2% 1.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 4.8 2.0%
16-4 9.1% 27.2% 27.1% 0.2% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.1 6.7 0.2%
15-5 10.6% 18.5% 18.5% 14.4 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 8.7
14-6 12.3% 11.8% 11.8% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 10.9
13-7 11.5% 9.0% 9.0% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 10.4
12-8 10.4% 5.4% 5.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 9.8
11-9 9.1% 4.6% 4.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 8.7
10-10 7.0% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 6.8
9-11 5.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 5.2
8-12 3.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 3.8
7-13 2.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.4
6-14 1.8% 1.8
5-15 0.9% 0.9
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 14.8% 14.3% 0.6% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.4 2.9 3.4 3.2 2.1 85.2 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 6.2 1.7 25.8 45.8 3.3 22.5 0.8