Preseason Rankings
Missouri Valley
2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
109 Loyola Chicago 20.8%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 11 - 7 +3.8      -1.0 207 +4.8 52 59.6 349 0.0 1 0.0 1
114 Northern Iowa 19.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 11 11 - 7 +3.6      -0.2 184 +3.7 77 62.3 329 0.0 1 0.0 1
125 Missouri St. 16.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 8 +2.8      +0.9 141 +1.9 115 65.8 261 0.0 1 0.0 1
136 Bradley 12.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 +1.6      -1.1 209 +2.6 98 64.3 296 0.0 1 0.0 1
145 Drake 10.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 9 - 9 +1.0      +0.7 150 +0.3 153 71.5 102 0.0 1 0.0 1
158 Indiana St. 8.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 9 +0.2      +0.7 148 -0.5 181 71.5 104 0.0 1 0.0 1
182 Evansville 5.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -1.8      -2.2 245 +0.4 150 72.3 92 0.0 1 0.0 1
187 Illinois St. 5.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 7 - 11 -1.9      -2.3 249 +0.4 152 67.5 215 0.0 1 0.0 1
199 Valparaiso 4.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 7 - 11 -2.4      -3.3 270 +0.9 134 64.0 306 0.0 1 0.0 1
207 Southern Illinois 3.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 7 - 11 -2.9      -3.0 262 +0.2 159 65.2 278 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Loyola Chicago 3.5 26.1 18.0 14.0 11.1 8.7 7.2 5.3 4.4 3.2 1.7
Northern Iowa 3.7 23.7 17.4 14.0 11.6 9.5 7.8 5.9 4.9 3.4 1.9
Missouri St. 4.0 19.7 16.2 14.1 11.7 10.3 8.3 7.2 5.7 3.9 2.9
Bradley 4.6 14.6 13.5 12.6 11.5 11.3 10.0 8.7 7.8 5.9 4.2
Drake 4.9 12.1 12.5 12.3 11.7 11.3 10.2 9.3 8.4 7.1 5.1
Indiana St. 5.3 9.0 10.4 11.0 11.5 11.1 10.9 10.5 10.0 8.8 6.7
Evansville 6.2 5.2 6.6 7.5 9.2 10.4 11.1 11.6 12.4 13.1 12.9
Illinois St. 6.3 4.7 6.4 7.7 8.9 10.0 10.8 11.5 12.5 13.7 13.8
Valparaiso 6.5 3.9 6.2 6.8 8.0 9.2 10.9 12.2 13.6 14.6 14.7
Southern Illinois 6.8 3.3 4.5 6.3 7.6 8.9 11.0 12.2 13.9 15.4 16.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Loyola Chicago 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.5 3.8 5.2 7.0 8.7 10.2 11.6 11.6 11.4 9.7 7.7 4.9 2.6 0.8
Northern Iowa 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.5 4.3 5.5 7.6 9.5 10.7 11.4 11.5 10.8 9.1 6.8 4.4 2.3 0.7
Missouri St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.0 3.4 4.7 6.6 8.4 9.7 11.5 11.2 11.2 10.4 7.9 5.4 3.4 1.7 0.5
Bradley 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.1 4.9 6.5 8.4 9.9 11.0 10.6 10.3 10.3 8.0 6.2 4.2 2.4 1.0 0.3
Drake 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 3.6 5.6 7.3 8.9 9.8 11.4 11.0 10.7 9.2 7.0 5.5 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.2
Indiana St. 9 - 9 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.8 5.1 6.8 8.4 10.0 10.5 11.2 10.9 9.6 7.8 6.1 4.0 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.1
Evansville 8 - 10 0.5 1.8 3.3 5.6 7.8 9.4 10.1 11.2 11.1 10.3 8.8 6.9 5.2 3.5 2.3 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
Illinois St. 7 - 11 0.6 1.8 3.6 5.9 7.6 9.8 10.7 11.1 11.3 9.7 8.6 7.0 4.9 3.6 2.0 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
Valparaiso 7 - 11 0.6 2.0 4.0 6.2 8.3 10.6 11.6 11.8 10.5 9.5 7.7 6.0 4.9 3.1 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Southern Illinois 7 - 11 0.7 2.5 4.5 7.3 9.2 10.5 11.6 12.0 11.0 9.0 7.3 5.7 3.8 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Loyola Chicago 26.1% 18.5 6.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Iowa 23.7% 16.5 5.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Missouri St. 19.7% 13.4 4.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Bradley 14.6% 9.4 4.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Drake 12.1% 7.7 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Indiana St. 9.0% 5.8 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Evansville 5.2% 3.1 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Illinois St. 4.7% 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 3.9% 2.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0
Southern Illinois 3.3% 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Loyola Chicago 20.8% 19.2% 1.6% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.9 5.3 5.0 3.6 1.9 0.5 79.2 2.0%
Northern Iowa 19.6% 17.7% 1.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 2.1 5.7 4.9 3.0 1.4 0.4 80.4 2.3%
Missouri St. 16.6% 15.6% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.4 3.8 4.3 3.3 1.8 0.5 83.4 1.2%
Bradley 12.8% 12.0% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.2 3.0 3.2 2.7 1.6 0.4 87.2 1.0%
Drake 10.8% 10.2% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.2 2.8 2.4 1.6 0.5 89.2 0.6%
Indiana St. 8.5% 8.0% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.1 2.1 1.2 0.5 91.5 0.5%
Evansville 5.2% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.5 94.8 0.2%
Illinois St. 5.1% 4.9% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.4 95.0 0.2%
Valparaiso 4.1% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.7 95.9 0.1%
Southern Illinois 3.4% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.5 96.6 0.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Loyola Chicago 20.8% 1.1% 20.3% 4.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 19.6% 1.3% 19.0% 4.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 16.6% 0.8% 16.2% 3.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 12.8% 0.7% 12.5% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 10.8% 0.5% 10.5% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 8.5% 0.4% 8.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 5.2% 0.2% 5.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 5.1% 0.2% 4.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 4.1% 0.2% 4.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 3.4% 0.3% 3.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 93.3 6.5 0.1
1st Round 99.4% 1.0 0.6 94.8 4.5 0.1
2nd Round 18.9% 0.2 81.1 18.6 0.3
Sweet Sixteen 5.2% 0.1 94.8 5.1 0.0
Elite Eight 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0