Preseason Rankings
BYU
West Coast
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.0#67
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace76.7#30
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#31
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#124
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.0% 3.3% 0.7%
Top 6 Seed 6.5% 7.0% 1.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.1% 33.8% 14.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 25.0% 26.6% 10.0%
Average Seed 9.0 9.0 10.1
.500 or above 83.5% 85.8% 61.4%
.500 or above in Conference 82.4% 83.6% 69.9%
Conference Champion 10.2% 10.8% 4.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.9% 2.3%
First Four8.0% 8.4% 4.3%
First Round27.8% 29.4% 12.1%
Second Round13.4% 14.3% 4.9%
Sweet Sixteen4.9% 5.2% 1.3%
Elite Eight1.8% 2.0% 0.3%
Final Four0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Fullerton (Home) - 90.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 5
Quad 23 - 34 - 8
Quad 37 - 312 - 10
Quad 47 - 119 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 213   Cal St. Fullerton W 86-72 91%    
  Nov 09, 2019 77   San Diego St. W 78-74 65%    
  Nov 13, 2019 226   Southern Utah W 88-74 91%    
  Nov 15, 2019 32   @ Houston L 72-79 26%    
  Nov 20, 2019 90   @ Boise St. L 76-77 49%    
  Nov 25, 2019 82   UCLA W 87-85 55%    
  Dec 04, 2019 110   @ Utah W 79-78 55%    
  Dec 07, 2019 146   UNLV W 82-75 73%    
  Dec 10, 2019 95   Nevada W 84-78 70%    
  Dec 14, 2019 34   Utah St. L 77-81 38%    
  Dec 21, 2019 191   Weber St. W 90-77 87%    
  Dec 28, 2019 205   Oral Roberts W 88-74 88%    
  Jan 04, 2020 149   Loyola Marymount W 76-66 80%    
  Jan 09, 2020 19   @ St. Mary's L 69-77 24%    
  Jan 11, 2020 285   Portland W 86-68 93%    
  Jan 16, 2020 164   San Diego W 81-70 82%    
  Jan 18, 2020 8   @ Gonzaga L 77-89 16%    
  Jan 23, 2020 247   @ Pacific W 78-68 79%    
  Jan 25, 2020 111   @ San Francisco W 78-77 54%    
  Jan 30, 2020 117   Pepperdine W 88-80 73%    
  Feb 01, 2020 19   St. Mary's L 72-74 42%    
  Feb 06, 2020 285   @ Portland W 83-71 83%    
  Feb 08, 2020 111   San Francisco W 81-74 73%    
  Feb 13, 2020 149   @ Loyola Marymount W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 15, 2020 164   @ San Diego W 78-73 66%    
  Feb 20, 2020 128   Santa Clara W 81-72 77%    
  Feb 22, 2020 8   Gonzaga L 80-86 31%    
  Feb 29, 2020 117   @ Pepperdine W 85-83 55%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.9 3.9 2.0 0.5 10.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 4.3 7.1 5.5 1.3 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.7 8.0 8.9 4.1 0.4 24.4 3rd
4th 0.3 3.1 6.7 5.7 1.7 0.0 17.5 4th
5th 0.3 2.4 5.0 3.5 0.6 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.2 1.5 3.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 0.7 0.1 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.1 4.7 7.4 10.4 13.3 15.2 15.0 12.1 8.8 5.1 2.0 0.5 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
15-1 100.0% 2.0    1.7 0.2
14-2 75.4% 3.9    2.3 1.5 0.1
13-3 32.6% 2.9    0.9 1.5 0.4 0.0
12-4 7.4% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-5 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 10.2% 10.2 5.6 3.7 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.5% 98.5% 54.5% 44.0% 3.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.7%
15-1 2.0% 99.1% 42.7% 56.4% 4.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.4%
14-2 5.1% 92.4% 30.5% 62.0% 6.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 89.1%
13-3 8.8% 81.7% 21.3% 60.3% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.0 1.6 76.7%
12-4 12.1% 61.6% 13.7% 47.9% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.7 55.5%
11-5 15.0% 36.6% 9.3% 27.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 1.4 0.1 0.0 9.5 30.1%
10-6 15.2% 19.2% 5.7% 13.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 12.3 14.3%
9-7 13.3% 8.7% 3.9% 4.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.1 4.9%
8-8 10.4% 4.7% 2.3% 2.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.9 2.4%
7-9 7.4% 1.7% 1.4% 0.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.3 0.3%
6-10 4.7% 0.9% 0.9% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6
5-11 3.1% 0.6% 0.6% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1
4-12 1.5% 0.6% 0.6% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
3-13 0.7% 0.7
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 32.1% 9.4% 22.7% 9.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.4 3.5 4.9 7.6 4.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 67.9 25.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.4 61.8 32.7 5.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.7 33.3 62.7 3.9