Preseason Rankings
Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.9#208
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.8#54
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#124
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#304
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.6% 16.6% 8.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.0 14.8
.500 or above 38.2% 64.6% 34.7%
.500 or above in Conference 63.7% 77.9% 61.9%
Conference Champion 10.7% 18.8% 9.6%
Last Place in Conference 6.0% 2.2% 6.5%
First Four1.7% 1.2% 1.8%
First Round8.8% 16.1% 7.8%
Second Round0.7% 2.0% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Away) - 11.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 33 - 74 - 13
Quad 410 - 514 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 74   @ Oregon St. L 70-83 12%    
  Nov 09, 2019 92   @ New Mexico L 82-93 15%    
  Nov 12, 2019 117   Pepperdine L 82-85 38%    
  Nov 15, 2019 25   @ Auburn L 71-90 5%    
  Nov 17, 2019 105   @ Richmond L 73-83 19%    
  Nov 24, 2019 127   Colgate L 76-81 31%    
  Nov 25, 2019 167   @ Green Bay L 84-90 31%    
  Nov 30, 2019 118   Fresno St. L 75-78 39%    
  Dec 04, 2019 285   @ Portland W 77-76 54%    
  Dec 06, 2019 270   @ Portland St. W 82-81 51%    
  Dec 11, 2019 153   North Dakota St. L 76-77 48%    
  Dec 15, 2019 247   @ Pacific L 73-74 46%    
  Dec 28, 2019 90   @ Boise St. L 71-82 17%    
  Dec 31, 2019 329   Morgan St. W 89-78 82%    
  Jan 08, 2020 289   Long Beach St. W 86-79 73%    
  Jan 11, 2020 327   @ Cal Poly W 79-75 65%    
  Jan 16, 2020 296   @ UC Riverside W 73-71 56%    
  Jan 18, 2020 266   UC Davis W 76-70 69%    
  Jan 22, 2020 160   @ UC Santa Barbara L 72-78 31%    
  Jan 25, 2020 213   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 77-80 40%    
  Jan 30, 2020 160   UC Santa Barbara L 74-75 50%    
  Feb 02, 2020 183   @ Hawaii L 73-77 37%    
  Feb 08, 2020 296   UC Riverside W 76-68 74%    
  Feb 13, 2020 327   Cal Poly W 82-72 81%    
  Feb 15, 2020 266   @ UC Davis L 73-74 50%    
  Feb 22, 2020 106   UC Irvine L 73-77 37%    
  Feb 26, 2020 289   @ Long Beach St. W 83-82 54%    
  Feb 29, 2020 213   Cal St. Fullerton W 80-77 60%    
  Mar 04, 2020 106   @ UC Irvine L 70-80 21%    
  Mar 07, 2020 183   Hawaii W 76-74 56%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.5 3.2 2.6 1.0 0.3 10.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.0 4.1 1.6 0.3 13.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.0 6.6 3.8 0.7 0.0 16.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.9 6.2 2.7 0.3 0.0 15.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 4.8 5.5 1.9 0.2 13.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.4 4.5 1.3 0.1 11.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 3.5 3.4 0.7 0.0 9.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.3 1.9 0.5 0.0 6.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.5 9th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.3 6.8 9.6 11.1 12.7 12.6 12.0 10.2 7.3 4.8 2.9 1.0 0.3 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
15-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.1
14-2 89.6% 2.6    2.1 0.5 0.0
13-3 66.5% 3.2    1.8 1.2 0.1 0.0
12-4 34.0% 2.5    1.0 1.1 0.4 0.0
11-5 10.1% 1.0    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 10.7% 10.7 6.4 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.3% 55.5% 49.5% 6.0% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.9%
15-1 1.0% 47.2% 47.1% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.3%
14-2 2.9% 37.4% 37.1% 0.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.8 0.4%
13-3 4.8% 28.1% 28.1% 14.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 3.4
12-4 7.3% 22.7% 22.7% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.2 5.7 0.0%
11-5 10.2% 15.6% 15.6% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 8.6
10-6 12.0% 10.0% 10.0% 15.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 10.8
9-7 12.6% 6.2% 6.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 11.8
8-8 12.7% 4.9% 4.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 12.1
7-9 11.1% 3.9% 3.9% 15.9 0.0 0.4 10.6
6-10 9.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.4
5-11 6.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 6.7
4-12 4.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.0 4.3
3-13 2.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.6
2-14 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.3
1-15 0.5% 0.5
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.2 2.8 2.9 90.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%