Preseason Rankings
East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.3#71
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.0#201
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#60
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#96
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.3% 1.5% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 2.9% 3.4% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.8% 38.4% 24.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.6% 6.6% 1.8%
Average Seed 11.3 11.2 12.4
.500 or above 95.4% 97.1% 87.6%
.500 or above in Conference 95.2% 96.2% 90.3%
Conference Champion 42.3% 45.1% 29.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four2.2% 2.4% 0.9%
First Round34.9% 37.3% 24.1%
Second Round11.8% 13.1% 6.1%
Sweet Sixteen4.2% 4.7% 2.2%
Elite Eight1.3% 1.4% 0.7%
Final Four0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Away) - 81.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 22 - 4
Quad 37 - 39 - 7
Quad 412 - 121 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 258   @ Tennessee Martin W 81-71 82%    
  Nov 14, 2019 218   Winthrop W 86-72 89%    
  Nov 19, 2019 4   @ Kansas L 68-83 9%    
  Nov 23, 2019 349   Delaware St. W 68-43 99%    
  Nov 26, 2019 212   Appalachian St. W 85-72 88%    
  Nov 30, 2019 220   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 78-70 74%    
  Dec 04, 2019 306   @ The Citadel W 89-76 86%    
  Dec 07, 2019 153   @ North Dakota St. W 73-69 63%    
  Dec 18, 2019 20   @ LSU L 72-81 23%    
  Dec 21, 2019 311   Cleveland St. W 83-64 95%    
  Jan 01, 2020 107   Wofford W 75-68 71%    
  Jan 04, 2020 102   @ Furman W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 08, 2020 96   @ UNC Greensboro L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 11, 2020 300   VMI W 86-68 94%    
  Jan 15, 2020 142   Samford W 80-71 79%    
  Jan 18, 2020 215   @ Western Carolina W 80-73 73%    
  Jan 25, 2020 235   Chattanooga W 78-64 88%    
  Jan 29, 2020 204   Mercer W 78-65 86%    
  Feb 01, 2020 96   UNC Greensboro W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 05, 2020 235   @ Chattanooga W 75-67 75%    
  Feb 08, 2020 204   @ Mercer W 75-68 72%    
  Feb 12, 2020 306   The Citadel W 92-73 93%    
  Feb 15, 2020 300   @ VMI W 83-71 85%    
  Feb 19, 2020 102   Furman W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 22, 2020 142   @ Samford W 77-74 61%    
  Feb 26, 2020 107   @ Wofford W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 29, 2020 215   Western Carolina W 83-70 87%    
Projected Record 20 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.0 6.3 10.7 11.6 8.0 3.4 42.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.1 6.8 7.0 3.8 0.7 22.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.2 5.4 4.0 1.0 0.1 14.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 2.8 3.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.4 0.9 0.1 5.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.2 3.8 6.5 8.4 10.7 13.2 14.4 14.5 12.3 8.0 3.4 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.4    3.4
17-1 100.0% 8.0    7.8 0.2
16-2 94.1% 11.6    9.9 1.7 0.0
15-3 73.4% 10.7    7.1 3.2 0.3
14-4 44.1% 6.3    2.7 2.7 0.8 0.1
13-5 15.2% 2.0    0.5 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 42.3% 42.3 31.5 8.7 1.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.4% 89.9% 70.6% 19.3% 6.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 65.7%
17-1 8.0% 76.2% 60.6% 15.6% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 1.9 39.5%
16-2 12.3% 60.0% 51.2% 8.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 2.0 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.9 18.0%
15-3 14.5% 45.9% 41.5% 4.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 3.2 1.7 0.4 0.0 7.9 7.6%
14-4 14.4% 35.5% 34.4% 1.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 9.3 1.6%
13-5 13.2% 25.2% 25.0% 0.2% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 9.9 0.2%
12-6 10.7% 18.9% 18.9% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 8.7 0.0%
11-7 8.4% 13.7% 13.7% 13.8 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 7.2
10-8 6.5% 11.1% 11.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 5.8
9-9 3.8% 5.5% 5.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.6
8-10 2.2% 3.6% 3.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
7-11 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
6-12 0.7% 2.0% 2.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 35.8% 32.0% 3.8% 11.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.3 2.0 5.1 10.7 7.4 3.4 1.2 0.2 64.2 5.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.8 10.8 31.8 27.6 29.1 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 4.4 17.9 35.8 31.6 14.7