Preseason Rankings
Mercer
Southern
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.7#204
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.7#237
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#196
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#236
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 6.1% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.2 14.1
.500 or above 35.0% 58.6% 30.4%
.500 or above in Conference 39.6% 54.8% 36.7%
Conference Champion 2.8% 5.1% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 9.9% 4.6% 10.9%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round3.1% 5.9% 2.5%
Second Round0.3% 0.8% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. John's (Away) - 16.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 6
Quad 33 - 64 - 13
Quad 49 - 413 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 93   @ St. John's L 70-80 16%    
  Nov 11, 2019 320   Kennesaw St. W 77-67 83%    
  Nov 15, 2019 257   Florida Gulf Coast W 74-68 70%    
  Nov 19, 2019 122   @ Georgia Southern L 74-83 22%    
  Nov 23, 2019 131   @ Illinois-Chicago L 70-77 26%    
  Nov 26, 2019 115   @ St. Bonaventure L 61-70 21%    
  Dec 01, 2019 295   Canisius W 74-69 66%    
  Dec 07, 2019 162   Georgia St. W 74-73 51%    
  Dec 16, 2019 268   @ UNC Wilmington W 77-76 51%    
  Dec 20, 2019 102   Furman L 68-72 37%    
  Dec 22, 2019 163   Florida Atlantic W 70-69 51%    
  Jan 01, 2020 96   @ UNC Greensboro L 64-74 20%    
  Jan 04, 2020 235   Chattanooga W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 11, 2020 215   @ Western Carolina L 74-77 41%    
  Jan 15, 2020 300   VMI W 81-73 76%    
  Jan 18, 2020 142   @ Samford L 72-79 29%    
  Jan 22, 2020 215   Western Carolina W 77-74 61%    
  Jan 25, 2020 300   @ VMI W 78-76 58%    
  Jan 29, 2020 71   @ East Tennessee St. L 65-78 14%    
  Feb 01, 2020 306   The Citadel W 86-77 77%    
  Feb 05, 2020 102   @ Furman L 65-75 21%    
  Feb 08, 2020 71   East Tennessee St. L 68-75 28%    
  Feb 12, 2020 107   @ Wofford L 66-76 21%    
  Feb 15, 2020 96   UNC Greensboro L 67-71 37%    
  Feb 19, 2020 142   Samford L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 22, 2020 235   @ Chattanooga L 70-72 45%    
  Feb 26, 2020 306   @ The Citadel W 83-80 59%    
  Feb 29, 2020 107   Wofford L 69-73 39%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 4.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 2.4 2.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 7.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.6 3.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.0 3.9 1.0 0.1 12.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 4.0 6.4 3.8 0.7 0.0 15.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.9 5.8 2.9 0.5 0.0 15.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.2 4.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 14.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 2.6 3.8 2.8 0.8 0.1 10.8 9th
10th 0.2 1.1 1.6 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 5.8 10th
Total 0.2 1.1 2.4 4.6 6.9 9.9 11.1 11.9 12.2 10.9 9.2 7.2 5.1 3.5 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 89.3% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 65.1% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 43.7% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.1% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 57.1% 17.1% 40.0% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 48.3%
17-1 0.1% 72.2% 62.5% 9.7% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.8%
16-2 0.4% 42.0% 35.8% 6.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9.7%
15-3 1.1% 31.1% 28.2% 2.9% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 4.0%
14-4 2.1% 17.2% 17.2% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.7 0.1%
13-5 3.5% 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0%
12-6 5.1% 7.8% 7.7% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.7 0.1%
11-7 7.2% 6.2% 6.2% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.8
10-8 9.2% 4.1% 4.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 8.8
9-9 10.9% 2.5% 2.5% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 10.6
8-10 12.2% 1.2% 1.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.0
7-11 11.9% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 11.8
6-12 11.1% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 11.0
5-13 9.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.9
4-14 6.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.9
3-15 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.6
2-16 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.4
1-17 1.1% 1.1
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 3.2% 3.1% 0.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 96.8 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%