Preseason Rankings
Illinois-Chicago
Horizon
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.8#131
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.0#62
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#138
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#137
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.9% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.4% 29.7% 17.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 2.9% 0.4%
Average Seed 13.4 12.3 13.6
.500 or above 75.5% 92.5% 73.6%
.500 or above in Conference 80.9% 90.9% 79.8%
Conference Champion 23.0% 36.5% 21.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 0.3% 2.4%
First Four1.0% 1.7% 0.9%
First Round18.0% 28.6% 16.8%
Second Round2.6% 6.6% 2.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 1.6% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Memphis (Away) - 9.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 36 - 57 - 10
Quad 412 - 319 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 26   @ Memphis L 77-91 10%    
  Nov 13, 2019 120   Ball St. W 77-75 56%    
  Nov 16, 2019 136   @ Bradley L 68-71 40%    
  Nov 21, 2019 273   Robert Morris W 76-65 84%    
  Nov 23, 2019 204   Mercer W 77-70 74%    
  Nov 26, 2019 295   Canisius W 81-69 86%    
  Dec 01, 2019 163   @ Florida Atlantic L 72-73 46%    
  Dec 07, 2019 241   Purdue Fort Wayne W 85-76 79%    
  Dec 14, 2019 97   @ DePaul L 75-81 32%    
  Dec 18, 2019 187   @ Illinois St. W 73-72 53%    
  Dec 20, 2019 106   UC Irvine W 72-71 52%    
  Dec 28, 2019 311   Cleveland St. W 83-69 88%    
  Dec 30, 2019 225   Youngstown St. W 81-73 76%    
  Jan 03, 2020 167   @ Green Bay L 83-84 47%    
  Jan 05, 2020 250   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 74-70 62%    
  Jan 10, 2020 133   Northern Kentucky W 77-74 60%    
  Jan 12, 2020 103   Wright St. W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 18, 2020 253   @ IUPUI W 78-74 63%    
  Jan 23, 2020 201   @ Oakland W 77-76 54%    
  Jan 25, 2020 219   @ Detroit Mercy W 81-79 57%    
  Jan 30, 2020 225   @ Youngstown St. W 78-76 57%    
  Feb 01, 2020 311   @ Cleveland St. W 80-72 74%    
  Feb 06, 2020 250   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 77-67 79%    
  Feb 08, 2020 167   Green Bay W 86-81 66%    
  Feb 14, 2020 103   @ Wright St. L 69-74 34%    
  Feb 16, 2020 133   @ Northern Kentucky L 74-77 40%    
  Feb 22, 2020 253   IUPUI W 81-71 79%    
  Feb 27, 2020 219   Detroit Mercy W 84-76 74%    
  Feb 29, 2020 201   Oakland W 80-73 72%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.5 4.8 6.2 5.1 2.7 0.8 23.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.6 6.3 4.3 1.8 0.3 18.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.8 5.0 5.4 2.7 0.5 0.0 15.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.0 4.3 1.4 0.1 13.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.9 3.1 0.7 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.1 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.6 4.7 6.7 8.7 10.4 11.5 12.0 11.6 9.7 8.1 5.4 2.7 0.8 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 2.7    2.7 0.1
16-2 95.2% 5.1    4.4 0.7 0.0
15-3 77.1% 6.2    4.4 1.7 0.1
14-4 50.1% 4.8    2.6 1.9 0.3 0.0
13-5 21.8% 2.5    0.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.2% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.0% 23.0 15.8 5.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 80.7% 70.4% 10.4% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 34.9%
17-1 2.7% 61.0% 54.4% 6.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 14.5%
16-2 5.4% 49.9% 47.5% 2.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.7 4.6%
15-3 8.1% 37.4% 36.5% 0.8% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.0 1.3%
14-4 9.7% 28.4% 28.3% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 6.9 0.1%
13-5 11.6% 23.4% 23.4% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.1 8.9
12-6 12.0% 14.7% 14.7% 14.4 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.2 10.2
11-7 11.5% 11.3% 11.3% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 10.2
10-8 10.4% 8.0% 8.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 9.5
9-9 8.7% 6.7% 6.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 8.1
8-10 6.7% 4.1% 4.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.5
7-11 4.7% 2.2% 2.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 4.6
6-12 3.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.0 3.5
5-13 2.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 18.4% 18.0% 0.5% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.9 3.2 4.6 4.2 3.1 1.7 81.6 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.5 8.3 4.2 16.7 66.7 4.2