Preseason Rankings
Georgia Southern
Sun Belt
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.0#122
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace81.6#12
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#100
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#149
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 2.5% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.3% 34.0% 19.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.0% 3.4% 0.7%
Average Seed 12.7 11.4 13.0
.500 or above 80.1% 94.3% 78.1%
.500 or above in Conference 83.9% 92.9% 82.6%
Conference Champion 26.6% 41.7% 24.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.4% 1.4%
First Four0.6% 1.5% 0.5%
First Round21.0% 33.6% 19.3%
Second Round4.1% 9.9% 3.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 3.1% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.3% 1.0% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Auburn (Away) - 11.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 37 - 58 - 9
Quad 411 - 219 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 25   @ Auburn L 75-88 12%    
  Nov 11, 2019 155   @ North Florida L 86-87 50%    
  Nov 15, 2019 134   Radford W 78-74 66%    
  Nov 19, 2019 204   Mercer W 83-74 78%    
  Nov 29, 2019 302   Campbell W 82-71 84%    
  Nov 30, 2019 262   North Dakota W 86-77 78%    
  Dec 01, 2019 257   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 81-76 68%    
  Dec 15, 2019 136   @ Bradley L 73-75 45%    
  Dec 19, 2019 156   Texas St. W 76-70 69%    
  Dec 21, 2019 135   Texas Arlington W 78-74 64%    
  Dec 23, 2019 62   @ Georgia L 76-85 23%    
  Jan 02, 2020 172   @ Coastal Carolina W 83-82 52%    
  Jan 04, 2020 212   @ Appalachian St. W 87-84 61%    
  Jan 06, 2020 220   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 82-79 61%    
  Jan 09, 2020 223   Louisiana Monroe W 84-75 78%    
  Jan 11, 2020 202   Louisiana W 91-82 76%    
  Jan 16, 2020 297   @ Troy W 82-74 74%    
  Jan 18, 2020 138   @ South Alabama L 78-79 46%    
  Jan 25, 2020 162   Georgia St. W 85-79 70%    
  Jan 30, 2020 297   Troy W 85-71 87%    
  Feb 01, 2020 138   South Alabama W 81-76 66%    
  Feb 06, 2020 223   @ Louisiana Monroe W 81-78 61%    
  Feb 08, 2020 202   @ Louisiana W 88-85 58%    
  Feb 13, 2020 172   Coastal Carolina W 86-79 71%    
  Feb 15, 2020 212   Appalachian St. W 90-81 77%    
  Feb 20, 2020 156   @ Texas St. L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 22, 2020 135   @ Texas Arlington L 75-77 45%    
  Feb 29, 2020 162   @ Georgia St. W 82-81 50%    
  Mar 03, 2020 271   Arkansas St. W 87-75 84%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.0 6.4 6.1 4.8 2.8 0.8 26.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.9 5.4 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 17.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.7 4.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 13.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.5 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.7 2.6 0.5 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 6.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 4.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.0 2.7 4.1 5.5 7.1 8.6 10.4 10.6 11.1 10.8 9.8 7.1 4.9 2.8 0.8 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
19-1 99.7% 2.8    2.7 0.0
18-2 98.1% 4.8    4.5 0.3
17-3 86.5% 6.1    5.0 1.0 0.0
16-4 65.2% 6.4    3.9 2.1 0.3 0.0
15-5 37.6% 4.0    1.7 1.7 0.6 0.0
14-6 13.1% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 26.6% 26.6 19.0 5.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.8% 83.7% 70.1% 13.6% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 45.4%
19-1 2.8% 68.1% 58.6% 9.5% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.9 23.0%
18-2 4.9% 58.9% 54.6% 4.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.0 9.5%
17-3 7.1% 43.9% 41.7% 2.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.0 3.7%
16-4 9.8% 38.9% 38.4% 0.5% 13.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 6.0 0.8%
15-5 10.8% 29.9% 29.8% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 7.5 0.1%
14-6 11.1% 22.5% 22.5% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 8.6
13-7 10.6% 14.4% 14.4% 14.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 9.1
12-8 10.4% 8.3% 8.3% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 9.5
11-9 8.6% 5.7% 5.7% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 8.1
10-10 7.1% 2.9% 2.9% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.9
9-11 5.5% 2.2% 2.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.3
8-12 4.1% 1.2% 1.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0
7-13 2.7% 0.8% 0.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
6-14 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.0
5-15 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 21.3% 20.5% 0.8% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.5 5.0 5.9 4.8 2.1 0.4 78.7 1.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.1 0.8 3.4 16.0 51.3 26.1 0.8 1.7