Preseason Rankings
Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+18.8#6
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.1#197
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.8#7
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.9#9
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.2% 7.4% 2.4%
#1 Seed 22.5% 26.4% 11.1%
Top 2 Seed 41.2% 47.1% 23.5%
Top 4 Seed 65.4% 71.8% 46.3%
Top 6 Seed 79.4% 84.6% 63.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.0% 96.5% 86.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.4% 95.4% 84.6%
Average Seed 3.7 3.3 4.8
.500 or above 98.7% 99.5% 96.4%
.500 or above in Conference 94.9% 97.4% 87.7%
Conference Champion 28.2% 33.4% 12.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four1.3% 0.9% 2.5%
First Round93.5% 96.1% 85.9%
Second Round80.3% 84.8% 67.2%
Sweet Sixteen55.4% 60.0% 41.6%
Elite Eight34.5% 38.2% 23.4%
Final Four20.1% 22.8% 12.1%
Championship Game11.2% 12.9% 6.3%
National Champion6.2% 7.2% 3.3%

Next Game: Miami (FL) (Away) - 74.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 18 - 6
Quad 26 - 114 - 7
Quad 36 - 020 - 7
Quad 46 - 026 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 63   @ Miami (FL) W 75-68 75%    
  Nov 10, 2019 225   Youngstown St. W 87-62 99%    
  Nov 13, 2019 158   Indiana St. W 85-63 98%    
  Nov 17, 2019 322   NC Central W 84-52 99.8%   
  Nov 20, 2019 340   South Carolina Upstate W 90-56 99.9%   
  Nov 24, 2019 132   Akron W 77-57 96%    
  Nov 29, 2019 76   Western Kentucky W 78-66 86%    
  Dec 03, 2019 21   Michigan W 71-62 78%    
  Dec 06, 2019 72   Pittsburgh W 77-63 89%    
  Dec 10, 2019 13   Texas Tech W 70-67 60%    
  Dec 14, 2019 274   Eastern Kentucky W 97-69 99%    
  Dec 18, 2019 150   Miami (OH) W 80-59 96%    
  Dec 28, 2019 2   @ Kentucky L 67-71 37%    
  Jan 04, 2020 18   Florida St. W 76-68 76%    
  Jan 07, 2020 63   Miami (FL) W 78-65 86%    
  Jan 11, 2020 41   @ Notre Dame W 72-67 65%    
  Jan 14, 2020 72   @ Pittsburgh W 74-66 76%    
  Jan 18, 2020 3   @ Duke L 76-80 37%    
  Jan 22, 2020 75   Georgia Tech W 77-62 89%    
  Jan 25, 2020 81   Clemson W 75-60 90%    
  Jan 29, 2020 101   @ Boston College W 77-65 83%    
  Feb 01, 2020 22   @ North Carolina St. W 80-77 60%    
  Feb 05, 2020 91   Wake Forest W 81-64 92%    
  Feb 08, 2020 10   Virginia W 64-59 66%    
  Feb 12, 2020 75   @ Georgia Tech W 74-65 76%    
  Feb 15, 2020 81   @ Clemson W 72-63 78%    
  Feb 19, 2020 59   Syracuse W 75-62 86%    
  Feb 22, 2020 5   North Carolina W 83-80 59%    
  Feb 24, 2020 18   @ Florida St. W 73-71 58%    
  Mar 01, 2020 85   Virginia Tech W 75-59 90%    
  Mar 07, 2020 10   @ Virginia L 61-62 47%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.8 7.1 7.8 6.1 2.2 28.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.4 7.3 5.0 1.9 0.1 21.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.8 5.4 2.7 0.4 0.0 15.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.7 4.1 1.4 0.1 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.9 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.0 2.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 5.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.7 5.2 7.3 9.3 11.7 13.2 14.0 12.5 9.7 6.2 2.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.2    2.2
19-1 97.7% 6.1    5.4 0.7
18-2 80.6% 7.8    5.6 2.1 0.1
17-3 56.5% 7.1    3.8 2.9 0.4 0.0
16-4 27.3% 3.8    1.3 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 7.6% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 28.2% 28.2 18.4 7.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.2% 100.0% 62.7% 37.3% 1.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
19-1 6.2% 100.0% 47.2% 52.8% 1.2 4.9 1.2 0.1 100.0%
18-2 9.7% 100.0% 38.8% 61.2% 1.4 6.1 3.2 0.4 0.0 100.0%
17-3 12.5% 100.0% 33.9% 66.1% 1.8 5.5 4.9 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 14.0% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 2.4 2.9 5.0 3.8 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 13.2% 99.9% 17.0% 83.0% 3.3 1.0 2.8 4.1 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 11.7% 100.0% 13.1% 86.9% 4.3 0.3 1.0 2.5 3.0 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 9.3% 99.1% 8.3% 90.8% 5.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.0%
12-8 7.3% 96.3% 5.5% 90.8% 6.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 96.1%
11-9 5.2% 87.4% 3.6% 83.8% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 87.0%
10-10 3.7% 71.0% 2.2% 68.9% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 70.4%
9-11 2.3% 39.3% 1.2% 38.1% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4 38.6%
8-12 1.4% 16.9% 0.1% 16.8% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 16.8%
7-13 0.7% 4.4% 0.9% 3.5% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.5%
6-14 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 9.0 0.0 0.4 0.1%
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 94.0% 21.2% 72.8% 3.7 22.5 18.6 13.7 10.5 8.0 6.1 4.4 3.5 2.8 1.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 6.0 92.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.1 94.2 5.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 88.9 10.8 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 81.9 18.1