Preseason Rankings
Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.7#10
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace54.5#353
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#35
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+10.6#3
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.3% 4.4% 1.1%
#1 Seed 13.3% 17.0% 5.8%
Top 2 Seed 26.3% 32.3% 14.0%
Top 4 Seed 48.7% 56.8% 32.2%
Top 6 Seed 64.6% 72.5% 48.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.9% 91.7% 77.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 84.8% 90.1% 74.6%
Average Seed 4.6 4.2 5.6
.500 or above 96.6% 98.5% 92.6%
.500 or above in Conference 87.7% 92.8% 77.2%
Conference Champion 16.5% 21.2% 6.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 1.0%
First Four2.1% 1.5% 3.5%
First Round85.9% 91.0% 75.2%
Second Round68.6% 74.9% 55.7%
Sweet Sixteen42.5% 48.3% 30.7%
Elite Eight23.9% 28.2% 15.1%
Final Four12.9% 15.6% 7.4%
Championship Game6.6% 8.0% 3.7%
National Champion3.3% 4.1% 1.6%

Next Game: Syracuse (Away) - 67.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 7
Quad 26 - 112 - 8
Quad 35 - 017 - 8
Quad 45 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 59   @ Syracuse W 61-56 67%    
  Nov 10, 2019 232   James Madison W 72-48 99%    
  Nov 16, 2019 173   Columbia W 73-53 97%    
  Nov 19, 2019 84   Vermont W 65-52 88%    
  Nov 23, 2019 237   Massachusetts W 72-51 97%    
  Nov 27, 2019 333   Maine W 73-42 99.7%   
  Dec 04, 2019 12   @ Purdue L 60-62 42%    
  Dec 07, 2019 5   North Carolina W 70-69 53%    
  Dec 18, 2019 196   Stony Brook W 72-50 97%    
  Dec 22, 2019 78   South Carolina W 69-56 86%    
  Dec 29, 2019 267   Navy W 73-47 99%    
  Jan 04, 2020 85   Virginia Tech W 64-51 87%    
  Jan 07, 2020 101   @ Boston College W 65-56 79%    
  Jan 11, 2020 59   Syracuse W 64-53 81%    
  Jan 15, 2020 18   @ Florida St. W 62-61 51%    
  Jan 18, 2020 75   @ Georgia Tech W 63-56 71%    
  Jan 20, 2020 22   North Carolina St. W 70-63 71%    
  Jan 26, 2020 91   @ Wake Forest W 66-58 76%    
  Jan 28, 2020 18   Florida St. W 64-58 70%    
  Feb 05, 2020 81   Clemson W 64-51 86%    
  Feb 08, 2020 6   @ Louisville L 59-64 34%    
  Feb 11, 2020 41   Notre Dame W 64-55 76%    
  Feb 15, 2020 5   @ North Carolina L 67-72 34%    
  Feb 19, 2020 101   Boston College W 68-53 90%    
  Feb 22, 2020 72   @ Pittsburgh W 63-57 70%    
  Feb 26, 2020 85   @ Virginia Tech W 61-54 72%    
  Feb 29, 2020 3   Duke W 66-65 50%    
  Mar 04, 2020 63   @ Miami (FL) W 64-59 65%    
  Mar 07, 2020 6   Louisville W 62-61 53%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.6 4.5 4.8 2.7 0.9 16.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.1 5.6 3.2 0.8 0.0 15.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.1 5.3 2.1 0.4 0.0 15.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.8 4.2 1.4 0.1 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.2 3.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.1 3.1 0.9 0.1 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.2 2.3 0.5 0.0 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.1 0.6 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.0 4.9 6.5 8.2 10.2 11.2 12.2 11.8 10.4 8.0 5.5 2.8 0.9 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
19-1 98.4% 2.7    2.4 0.3
18-2 86.1% 4.8    3.5 1.1 0.1
17-3 56.1% 4.5    2.3 1.9 0.3 0.0
16-4 25.0% 2.6    0.8 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 7.0% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.5% 16.5 10.2 4.9 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.9% 100.0% 56.3% 43.7% 1.1 0.8 0.1 100.0%
19-1 2.8% 100.0% 47.0% 53.0% 1.2 2.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 5.5% 100.0% 37.8% 62.2% 1.4 3.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 8.0% 100.0% 28.0% 72.0% 1.8 3.5 3.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 10.4% 100.0% 22.4% 77.6% 2.4 2.1 3.8 2.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 11.8% 99.9% 17.2% 82.7% 3.3 0.9 2.6 3.7 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 12.2% 100.0% 12.5% 87.5% 4.3 0.2 1.0 2.6 3.2 2.6 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 11.2% 99.0% 8.0% 91.0% 5.4 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.2 2.5 2.3 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.9%
12-8 10.2% 96.4% 4.3% 92.2% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.0 2.2 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.4 96.3%
11-9 8.2% 90.0% 2.6% 87.4% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.8 89.8%
10-10 6.5% 68.9% 1.3% 67.5% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.0 68.4%
9-11 4.9% 38.8% 1.6% 37.2% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.0 37.8%
8-12 3.0% 17.0% 0.8% 16.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.5 16.4%
7-13 2.1% 3.0% 0.1% 3.0% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 3.0%
6-14 1.2% 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.6%
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 86.9% 13.8% 73.1% 4.6 13.3 13.0 11.8 10.7 8.6 7.3 6.3 5.3 4.1 3.1 2.7 0.8 0.0 13.1 84.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.0 97.2 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 85.8 14.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 92.4 7.6