IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Vermont
America East
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	+6.2	#84
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.2	#297
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.2	#108

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+4.0	#68

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.6%	1.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	1.5%	2.9%	0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid	56.2%	62.4%	50.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	1.5%	2.9%	0.6%
Average Seed	12.8	12.2	13.4

.500 or above	97.0%	99.0%	95.1%
.500 or above in Conference	99.1%	99.7%	98.6%
Conference Champion	70.6%	76.0%	65.5%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%

First Four	1.3%	1.1%	1.5%
First Round	55.6%	61.9%	49.7%
Second Round	12.2%	16.4%	8.3%
Sweet Sixteen	3.9%	5.7%	2.2%
Elite Eight	0.9%	1.4%	0.4%
Final Four	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Away) - 48.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 1	2 - 4
Quad 3	5 - 3	7 - 6
Quad 4	17 - 2	24 - 8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2019	115	@ St. Bonaventure	L	62-63	49%
Nov 10, 2019	159	@ Bucknell	W	72-69	61%
Nov 13, 2019	200	Boston University	W	75-63	86%
Nov 16, 2019	93	@ St. John's	L	71-72	45%
Nov 19, 2019	10	@ Virginia	L	52-65	12%
Nov 23, 2019	342	Central Connecticut St.	W	79-59	96%
Dec 01, 2019	144	@ Yale	W	74-72	58%
Dec 03, 2019	29	@ Cincinnati	L	59-68	21%
Dec 07, 2019	181	Towson	W	70-59	82%
Dec 18, 2019	96	UNC Greensboro	W	69-64	66%
Dec 20, 2019	177	Lipscomb	W	79-69	81%
Dec 31, 2019	190	George Washington	W	72-61	83%
Jan 02, 2020	193	@ Dartmouth	W	70-65	67%
Jan 08, 2020	196	Stony Brook	W	73-62	83%
Jan 11, 2020	206	@ Maryland Baltimore Co.	W	66-60	69%
Jan 15, 2020	339	@ Binghamton	W	74-58	91%
Jan 18, 2020	321	Hartford	W	77-58	95%
Jan 22, 2020	333	@ Maine	W	71-56	89%
Jan 25, 2020	263	Umass Lowell	W	81-66	89%
Jan 29, 2020	334	@ New Hampshire	W	70-55	89%
Feb 01, 2020	178	@ Albany	W	70-65	65%
Feb 05, 2020	333	Maine	W	74-53	96%
Feb 08, 2020	321	@ Hartford	W	74-61	86%
Feb 12, 2020	334	New Hampshire	W	73-52	96%
Feb 15, 2020	339	Binghamton	W	77-55	96%
Feb 20, 2020	196	@ Stony Brook	W	70-65	67%
Feb 22, 2020	206	Maryland Baltimore Co.	W	69-57	83%
Feb 29, 2020	263	@ Umass Lowell	W	78-69	77%
Mar 03, 2020	178	Albany	W	73-62	81%
Projected Record						22 - 7	14 - 2

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected America East Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.6	3.6	10.6	19.3	21.9	14.5		70.6	1st
2nd									0.0	0.1	0.7	3.2	6.5	5.6	1.8				17.8	2nd
3rd									0.1	0.6	2.0	2.7	1.3	0.2					6.9	3rd
4th								0.1	0.4	1.0	0.9	0.3	0.0						2.8	4th
5th						0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0							1.2	5th
6th						0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0									0.5	6th
7th				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0										0.2	7th
8th			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0												0.1	8th
9th			0.0	0.0	0.0														0.0	9th

Total			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	1.1	2.1	3.8	6.8	11.4	16.4	21.1	21.9	14.5			Total

America East Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	14.5		14.5
15-1	100.0%	21.9		21.0	0.9
14-2	91.5%	19.3		15.3	4.0	0.1
13-3	64.7%	10.6		6.1	4.0	0.5	0.0
12-4	31.8%	3.6		1.3	1.6	0.6	0.1
11-5	9.4%	0.6		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
10-6	1.0%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	70.6%	70.6		58.2	10.8	1.4	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	14.5%		81.5%	79.0%	2.5%	10.7		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.7	0.8	1.8	3.1	2.2	0.8	0.1	0.0	2.7		12.1%
15-1	21.9%		71.8%	70.7%	1.1%	12.6				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	1.5	5.1	5.2	2.6	0.5	0.0	6.2		3.9%
14-2	21.1%		59.4%	59.2%	0.2%	13.2									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	2.7	4.5	3.5	1.3	0.1	8.6		0.5%
13-3	16.4%		48.8%	48.6%	0.1%	13.8												0.0	0.9	2.2	2.9	1.7	0.4	8.4		0.3%
12-4	11.4%		39.0%	39.0%		14.3													0.2	0.8	1.5	1.4	0.5	7.0
11-5	6.8%		31.2%	31.2%		14.7													0.0	0.3	0.5	0.8	0.5	4.7
10-6	3.8%		23.9%	23.9%		15.2													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.4	2.9
9-7	2.1%		16.4%	16.4%		15.4													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	1.8
8-8	1.1%		15.6%	15.6%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	1.0
7-9	0.5%		11.5%	11.5%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.0	0.4
6-10	0.3%		11.6%	11.6%		16.0																	0.0	0.2
5-11	0.1%		23.2%	23.2%		16.0																	0.0	0.1
4-12	0.0%																							0.0
3-13	0.0%																							0.0
2-14	0.0%																							0.0
1-15
0-16

Total	100%		56.2%	55.5%	0.7%	12.8		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.8	1.3	3.6	12.1	15.2	12.1	6.4	2.3	43.8		1.5%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.2%	100.0%	4.0	7.6	4.5	19.0	46.5	8.3	7.8	2.9	3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	5.6				48.5			48.5	3.0