Preseason Rankings
Cincinnati
American Athletic
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.3#29
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.3#336
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#50
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#22
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 1.0% 0.2%
#1 Seed 2.9% 5.9% 1.6%
Top 2 Seed 7.8% 15.1% 4.6%
Top 4 Seed 18.8% 32.0% 13.1%
Top 6 Seed 29.7% 46.3% 22.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 66.0% 82.0% 59.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 57.1% 75.5% 50.1%
Average Seed 6.9 6.0 7.4
.500 or above 91.3% 97.3% 88.7%
.500 or above in Conference 88.3% 93.8% 85.9%
Conference Champion 27.6% 37.3% 23.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four6.5% 4.9% 7.2%
First Round62.9% 79.5% 55.8%
Second Round40.3% 56.2% 33.4%
Sweet Sixteen19.0% 29.5% 14.5%
Elite Eight8.7% 14.7% 6.2%
Final Four3.8% 6.4% 2.7%
Championship Game1.6% 2.8% 1.1%
National Champion0.6% 1.2% 0.4%

Next Game: Ohio St. (Away) - 30.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 5
Quad 25 - 39 - 8
Quad 37 - 116 - 9
Quad 45 - 021 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 14   @ Ohio St. L 61-67 30%    
  Nov 11, 2019 145   Drake W 75-61 91%    
  Nov 14, 2019 352   Alabama A&M W 78-45 99.8%   
  Nov 22, 2019 187   Illinois St. W 72-58 90%    
  Nov 30, 2019 146   UNLV W 74-60 90%    
  Dec 03, 2019 84   Vermont W 68-59 79%    
  Dec 07, 2019 23   @ Xavier L 64-67 38%    
  Dec 14, 2019 127   Colgate W 74-61 87%    
  Dec 18, 2019 30   Tennessee W 69-66 60%    
  Dec 21, 2019 39   Iowa W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 01, 2020 73   Connecticut W 72-64 75%    
  Jan 04, 2020 242   @ Tulane W 75-61 88%    
  Jan 08, 2020 100   Tulsa W 72-61 82%    
  Jan 11, 2020 94   @ Central Florida W 65-60 65%    
  Jan 16, 2020 26   @ Memphis L 73-76 40%    
  Jan 19, 2020 203   East Carolina W 76-58 93%    
  Jan 22, 2020 83   @ Temple W 69-66 59%    
  Jan 28, 2020 89   SMU W 69-59 80%    
  Feb 01, 2020 32   Houston W 66-63 61%    
  Feb 06, 2020 58   @ Wichita St. W 66-65 51%    
  Feb 09, 2020 73   @ Connecticut W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 13, 2020 26   Memphis W 76-73 59%    
  Feb 16, 2020 203   @ East Carolina W 73-61 84%    
  Feb 19, 2020 94   Central Florida W 68-57 81%    
  Feb 23, 2020 58   Wichita St. W 69-63 69%    
  Mar 01, 2020 32   @ Houston L 63-66 41%    
  Mar 03, 2020 79   @ South Florida W 66-63 59%    
  Mar 07, 2020 83   Temple W 72-63 77%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.0 7.7 7.3 4.1 1.4 27.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.4 6.1 2.9 0.5 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.0 4.2 1.0 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.7 3.3 0.6 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 4.0 2.5 0.5 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.9 2.5 0.4 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.1 4.9 6.8 9.0 10.4 13.0 13.0 12.2 10.6 7.8 4.1 1.4 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.4    1.4
17-1 100.0% 4.1    4.0 0.1
16-2 93.2% 7.3    6.3 1.0 0.0
15-3 72.8% 7.7    5.0 2.4 0.3 0.0
14-4 41.5% 5.0    2.1 2.1 0.8 0.1
13-5 13.7% 1.8    0.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.6% 27.6 19.1 6.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.4% 100.0% 63.5% 36.5% 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 4.1% 100.0% 52.0% 48.0% 2.4 1.1 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 7.8% 99.9% 44.2% 55.7% 3.5 0.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-3 10.6% 98.9% 35.8% 63.1% 5.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 2.3 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.3%
14-4 12.2% 95.2% 27.2% 68.0% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.6 93.5%
13-5 13.0% 86.5% 21.1% 65.4% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.4 0.4 0.0 1.8 82.9%
12-6 13.0% 71.3% 15.7% 55.6% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.1 0.6 0.0 3.7 66.0%
11-7 10.4% 54.4% 10.9% 43.5% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.9 0.7 0.0 4.7 48.8%
10-8 9.0% 32.8% 6.7% 26.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 0.6 0.0 6.1 27.9%
9-9 6.8% 16.6% 5.0% 11.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.6 12.3%
8-10 4.9% 5.2% 2.3% 3.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.6 3.0%
7-11 3.1% 2.3% 2.0% 0.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.3%
6-12 2.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0%
5-13 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 66.0% 20.7% 45.3% 6.9 2.9 4.8 5.0 6.1 5.3 5.5 5.6 6.2 6.6 7.3 7.7 2.8 0.1 0.0 34.0 57.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.3 69.0 27.8 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.4 58.9 40.2 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 65.9 34.1