IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.7	#279
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	74.1	#61
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.4	#197

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-6.3	#339

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.5%	12.9%	5.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.3	14.5	15.3

.500 or above	30.4%	66.1%	29.6%
.500 or above in Conference	48.0%	74.1%	47.4%
Conference Champion	5.7%	15.3%	5.4%
Last Place in Conference	9.1%	2.8%	9.2%

First Four	1.9%	2.7%	1.9%
First Round	4.6%	11.2%	4.5%
Second Round	0.2%	0.7%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Away) - 2.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 3	2 - 7	2 - 10
Quad 4	11 - 8	13 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2019	34	@ Utah St.	L	68-89	2%
Nov 15, 2019	96	@ UNC Greensboro	L	68-82	10%
Nov 16, 2019	212	Appalachian St.	L	82-86	37%
Nov 17, 2019	310	Tennessee Tech	W	77-75	58%
Nov 19, 2019	137	@ Grand Canyon	L	72-83	16%
Nov 30, 2019	167	Green Bay	L	85-88	38%
Dec 05, 2019	224	South Dakota St.	L	82-83	49%
Dec 16, 2019	153	@ North Dakota St.	L	71-81	19%
Dec 19, 2019	197	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	70-77	27%
Dec 28, 2019	280	Sacramento St.	W	77-74	61%
Dec 30, 2019	278	Northern Arizona	W	81-78	60%
Jan 02, 2020	214	@ Northern Colorado	L	71-78	28%
Jan 04, 2020	226	@ Southern Utah	L	77-83	31%
Jan 09, 2020	338	@ Idaho	W	76-73	59%
Jan 11, 2020	270	Portland St.	W	82-80	59%
Jan 18, 2020	192	Eastern Washington	L	77-79	45%
Jan 23, 2020	191	@ Weber St.	L	79-87	26%
Jan 25, 2020	335	@ Idaho St.	W	79-77	57%
Feb 01, 2020	198	@ Montana	L	73-80	27%
Feb 06, 2020	338	Idaho	W	79-70	76%
Feb 08, 2020	192	@ Eastern Washington	L	74-82	27%
Feb 13, 2020	335	Idaho St.	W	82-74	74%
Feb 15, 2020	191	Weber St.	L	82-84	45%
Feb 20, 2020	270	@ Portland St.	L	79-83	39%
Feb 22, 2020	198	Montana	L	76-77	46%
Feb 27, 2020	280	@ Sacramento St.	L	74-77	40%
Feb 29, 2020	278	@ Northern Arizona	L	78-81	40%
Mar 05, 2020	226	Southern Utah	L	80-81	49%
Mar 07, 2020	214	Northern Colorado	L	74-75	48%
Projected Record						12 - 17	9 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.2	0.7	1.2	1.4	1.1	0.7	0.2	0.1		5.7	1st
2nd												0.0	0.4	1.6	2.3	1.8	0.8	0.2	0.0				7.0	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.5	2.3	3.3	1.9	0.4	0.0						8.5	3rd
4th										0.1	0.6	2.9	3.7	1.7	0.3	0.0							9.4	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	1.0	3.2	3.8	1.9	0.2	0.0								10.1	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	1.0	3.6	4.7	1.7	0.2	0.0									11.2	6th
7th						0.0	0.1	1.3	3.8	4.4	1.6	0.1											11.5	7th
8th					0.0	0.3	1.6	3.8	3.9	1.4	0.2	0.0											11.2	8th
9th				0.1	0.6	2.4	3.6	3.2	1.0	0.1	0.0												10.9	9th
10th		0.0	0.3	0.9	2.4	2.8	2.0	0.6	0.0	0.0													9.0	10th
11th	0.1	0.5	1.1	1.5	1.4	0.7	0.1	0.0															5.6	11th

Total	0.1	0.5	1.4	2.5	4.4	6.2	7.4	9.0	9.7	10.6	10.3	9.0	8.5	7.0	5.2	3.5	2.2	1.3	0.7	0.2	0.1			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
19-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
18-2	96.7%	0.7		0.6	0.1
17-3	88.0%	1.1		0.9	0.2	0.0
16-4	63.1%	1.4		0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0
15-5	36.0%	1.2		0.5	0.5	0.2	0.0
14-6	14.0%	0.7		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-7	2.6%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.1%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	5.7%	5.7		3.3	1.7	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.1%		60.3%	59.5%	0.8%	12.1										0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0		2.0%
19-1	0.2%		55.1%	55.1%		13.4										0.0			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0		0.1
18-2	0.7%		32.1%	32.1%		13.8												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.5
17-3	1.3%		36.4%	36.4%		14.5													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.8
16-4	2.2%		29.1%	29.1%		14.6														0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	1.6
15-5	3.5%		22.3%	22.3%		15.2														0.0	0.1	0.4	0.3	2.7
14-6	5.2%		15.9%	15.9%		15.5														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	4.4
13-7	7.0%		10.0%	10.0%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	6.3
12-8	8.5%		7.4%	7.4%		15.9															0.0	0.1	0.5	7.8
11-9	9.0%		5.3%	5.3%		16.0																0.0	0.5	8.5
10-10	10.3%		2.5%	2.5%		16.0																0.0	0.3	10.1
9-11	10.6%		1.7%	1.7%		16.0																	0.2	10.5
8-12	9.7%		1.3%	1.3%		15.9																0.0	0.1	9.6
7-13	9.0%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	9.0
6-14	7.4%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	7.4
5-15	6.2%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	6.2
4-16	4.4%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	4.4
3-17	2.5%																							2.5
2-18	1.4%																							1.4
1-19	0.5%																							0.5
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		5.5%	5.5%	0.0%	15.3										0.0		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.7	1.5	3.0	94.5		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%