Pre-tourney Rankings
Pac-12
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
15 USC 99.8%   5   22 - 7 15 - 5 22 - 7 15 - 5 +14.8      +7.3 30 +7.5 20 67.1 227 +14.3 20 +14.3 2
23 Colorado 99.5%   6   22 - 8 15 - 6 22 - 8 15 - 6 +14.4      +8.2 19 +6.2 32 65.2 270 +13.5 29 +13.5 3
33 Oregon 98.8%   8   20 - 6 14 - 4 20 - 6 14 - 4 +12.5      +8.9 12 +3.5 76 66.9 231 +14.1 23 +15.6 1
42 Arizona 0.0%   17 - 9 11 - 9 17 - 9 11 - 9 +10.9      +7.7 25 +3.2 84 69.0 179 +10.0 57 +9.5 5
43 UCLA 56.8%   11   17 - 9 13 - 6 17 - 9 13 - 6 +10.8      +7.6 28 +3.2 85 62.4 321 +11.7 43 +12.9 4
68 Utah 0.0%   12 - 13 8 - 11 12 - 13 8 - 11 +8.3      +6.3 41 +2.1 112 67.5 216 +6.4 91 +6.3 8
80 Oregon St. 100.0%   12   16 - 12 10 - 10 16 - 12 10 - 10 +7.5      +5.3 54 +2.1 108 63.1 310 +9.2 62 +8.8 7
82 Stanford 0.2%   14 - 13 10 - 10 14 - 13 10 - 10 +7.3      +1.7 122 +5.6 40 71.2 121 +8.7 71 +9.1 6
98 Washington St. 0.0%   14 - 13 7 - 12 14 - 13 7 - 12 +5.3      -0.8 196 +6.1 33 68.3 196 +5.3 102 +5.1 10
103 Arizona St. 0.0%   11 - 14 7 - 10 11 - 14 7 - 10 +5.0      +3.3 96 +1.7 122 79.4 16 +5.7 97 +5.5 9
126 California 0.0%   8 - 20 3 - 17 8 - 20 3 - 17 +2.7      +1.3 134 +1.4 131 63.0 311 +0.7 154 -2.1 12
161 Washington 0.0%   5 - 21 4 - 17 5 - 21 4 - 17 +0.3      +0.3 169 0.0 170 74.4 66 -1.1 184 +0.7 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
USC 1.0 100.0
Colorado 1.0 100.0
Oregon 3.0 100.0
Arizona 5.0 100.0
UCLA 4.0 100.0
Utah 8.0 100.0
Oregon St. 6.0 100.0
Stanford 6.0 100.0
Washington St. 9.0 100.0
Arizona St. 9.0 100.0
California 12.0 100.0
Washington 11.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
USC 15 - 5 100.0
Colorado 15 - 5 100.0
Oregon 14 - 6 100.0
Arizona 11 - 9 100.0
UCLA 13 - 7 100.0
Utah 8 - 12 100.0
Oregon St. 10 - 10 100.0
Stanford 10 - 10 100.0
Washington St. 7 - 13 100.0
Arizona St. 7 - 13 100.0
California 3 - 17 100.0
Washington 4 - 16 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
USC 100.0% 100.0
Colorado 100.0% 100.0
Oregon
Arizona
UCLA
Utah
Oregon St.
Stanford
Washington St.
Arizona St.
California
Washington


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
USC 99.8% 0.0% 99.8% 5   0.0 1.2 9.2 22.3 33.2 22.7 9.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.2 99.8%
Colorado 99.5% 0.0% 99.5% 6   0.0 0.6 2.7 14.9 35.6 29.2 13.2 3.3 0.2 0.5 99.5%
Oregon 98.8% 0.0% 98.8% 8   0.0 0.1 2.0 6.6 20.4 32.7 31.2 5.7 0.1 1.2 98.8%
Arizona 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UCLA 56.8% 0.0% 56.8% 11   0.2 2.5 17.0 31.5 5.5 0.0 43.2 56.8%
Utah 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Oregon St. 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 12   0.0 0.9 19.0 77.7 2.4
Stanford 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.2%
Washington St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Arizona St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
California 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
USC 99.8% 0.0% 99.8% 73.9% 39.4% 14.9% 6.0% 2.0% 0.6%
Colorado 99.5% 0.0% 99.5% 65.2% 29.0% 12.6% 4.6% 1.6% 0.4%
Oregon 98.8% 0.0% 98.8% 50.3% 12.9% 5.5% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
Arizona 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UCLA 56.8% 17.2% 48.5% 18.5% 6.3% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Utah 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 24.9% 7.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arizona St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.6 0.7 43.5 55.6 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 4.5 0.0 0.9 51.7 47.4 0.0
2nd Round 97.8% 2.3 2.2 16.4 38.8 32.5 9.3 0.8
Sweet Sixteen 68.3% 0.9 31.7 45.4 19.5 3.1 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 32.1% 0.4 67.9 28.4 3.6 0.1 0.0
Final Four 12.6% 0.1 87.4 12.2 0.4 0.0
Final Game 4.2% 0.0 95.8 4.2 0.0
Champion 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1