Pre-tourney Rankings
Dayton
Atlantic 10
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.4#81
Expected Predictive Rating+7.5#79
Pace64.7#284
Improvement+1.8#98

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#74
First Shot+7.0#21
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#316
Layup/Dunks+0.3#142
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#136
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#24
Freethrows+0.6#138
Improvement+2.5#46

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#95
First Shot+2.5#92
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#145
Layups/Dunks+5.9#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#339
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#268
Freethrows+2.9#16
Improvement-0.7#212
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.7% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.7% n/a n/a
Average Seed 11.8 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.4% n/a n/a
First Round2.6% n/a n/a
Second Round0.6% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0.1% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.0% n/a n/a
Final Four0.0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 03 - 2
Quad 23 - 36 - 5
Quad 35 - 211 - 7
Quad 43 - 214 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 01, 2020 302   Eastern Illinois W 66-63 95%     1 - 0 -8.0 -7.6 -0.2
  Dec 05, 2020 57   SMU L 64-66 49%     1 - 1 +5.6 -2.8 +8.4
  Dec 08, 2020 200   Northern Kentucky W 66-60 87%     2 - 1 +1.3 -8.8 +10.4
  Dec 12, 2020 71   Mississippi St. W 85-82 2OT 47%     3 - 1 +11.1 +5.2 +5.5
  Dec 19, 2020 48   Mississippi W 65-62 45%     4 - 1 +11.7 +0.7 +11.1
  Dec 30, 2020 194   La Salle L 65-67 86%     4 - 2 0 - 1 -6.2 -3.9 -2.5
  Jan 02, 2021 128   George Mason W 74-65 74%     5 - 2 1 - 1 +9.7 +11.3 -0.6
  Jan 05, 2021 301   @ Fordham L 54-55 90%     5 - 3 1 - 2 -8.1 -4.2 -4.1
  Jan 08, 2021 56   @ Davidson W 89-78 OT 34%     6 - 3 2 - 2 +22.5 +17.2 +5.1
  Jan 13, 2021 114   Duquesne W 72-63 71%     7 - 3 3 - 2 +10.6 +3.3 +7.5
  Jan 17, 2021 217   @ George Washington W 67-54 81%     8 - 3 4 - 2 +11.1 +1.2 +11.7
  Jan 23, 2021 53   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 43-66 33%     8 - 4 4 - 3 -11.1 -17.7 +5.1
  Jan 26, 2021 55   @ Saint Louis W 76-71 34%     9 - 4 5 - 3 +16.6 +6.6 +9.9
  Jan 30, 2021 106   Rhode Island W 67-56 67%     10 - 4 6 - 3 +13.8 +5.5 +9.8
  Feb 02, 2021 114   @ Duquesne L 64-69 58%     10 - 5 6 - 4 +0.4 -3.8 +4.2
  Feb 05, 2021 128   George Mason W 74-65 74%     11 - 5 7 - 4 +9.7 +4.9 +5.0
  Feb 09, 2021 53   Virginia Commonwealth L 67-76 47%     11 - 6 7 - 5 -0.8 +10.2 -12.2
  Feb 16, 2021 106   @ Rhode Island L 89-91 2OT 53%     11 - 7 7 - 6 +4.6 +1.2 +3.8
  Feb 19, 2021 55   Saint Louis W 76-53 48%     12 - 7 8 - 6 +30.9 +6.8 +24.2
  Feb 24, 2021 196   @ Saint Joseph's L 84-97 77%     12 - 8 8 - 7 -13.5 +6.6 -19.6
  Mar 01, 2021 30   @ St. Bonaventure W 55-52 23%     13 - 8 9 - 7 +18.2 -4.3 +22.7
  Mar 04, 2021 106   Rhode Island W 84-72 60%     14 - 8 10 - 7 +16.7 +21.2 -3.6
  Mar 05, 2021 53   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 68-73 33%     14 - 9 10 - 8 +6.9 +1.7 +5.4
Projected Record 14 - 9 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

The conference records below are based on games currently on the team's schedule above.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 100.0% 5.7% 5.7% 11.8 0.0 1.6 3.9 0.2 94.3 5.7%
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.7% 0.0% 5.7% 11.8 0.0 1.6 3.9 0.2 94.3 5.7%