Preseason Rankings
Sun Belt
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
106 Georgia St. 28.7%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 7 13 - 5 +4.4      +3.3 90 +1.1 136 78.2 25 0.0 1 0.0 1
127 Arkansas Little Rock 16.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 10 11 - 7 +2.3      +2.3 116 0.0 167 71.0 112 0.0 1 0.0 1
143 Texas St. 15.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 10 11 - 7 +1.2      -0.3 182 +1.4 125 63.3 307 0.0 1 0.0 1
156 Texas Arlington 11.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 12 10 - 8 +0.3      -0.9 198 +1.2 131 67.9 206 0.0 1 0.0 1
175 Coastal Carolina 8.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 9 10 - 8 -0.8      +1.4 132 -2.2 239 78.1 26 0.0 1 0.0 1
185 Louisiana 5.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 11 9 - 9 -1.4      +0.7 149 -2.0 232 76.3 37 0.0 1 0.0 1
187 South Alabama 5.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 12 9 - 9 -1.7      -0.2 180 -1.4 216 63.8 300 0.0 1 0.0 1
194 Appalachian St. 4.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 13 9 - 9 -2.2      -1.7 222 -0.5 185 67.0 235 0.0 1 0.0 1
203 Georgia Southern 4.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 12 9 - 9 -2.6      -1.7 223 -1.0 201 76.4 36 0.0 1 0.0 1
219 Arkansas St. 2.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 14 7 - 11 -4.0      -0.5 187 -3.5 276 67.1 234 0.0 1 0.0 1
278 Louisiana Monroe 0.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 17 5 - 13 -6.6      -4.5 295 -2.1 236 62.6 322 0.0 1 0.0 1
281 Troy 0.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 17 6 - 12 -6.8      -3.1 263 -3.7 282 70.6 127 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Georgia St. 3.0 38.1 19.3 12.1 9.0 6.2 5.0 3.6 2.5 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.3
Arkansas Little Rock 4.2 19.7 16.8 13.3 11.1 9.9 7.7 7.0 5.0 4.0 2.8 1.8 1.0
Texas St. 4.6 15.6 15.0 13.7 11.8 9.9 8.6 7.4 5.8 4.9 3.6 2.5 1.3
Texas Arlington 5.0 12.6 13.3 12.3 12.0 10.5 9.2 8.1 6.8 5.7 4.4 3.4 1.9
Coastal Carolina 5.7 9.6 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.8 10.2 9.7 8.4 7.5 6.5 4.6 3.1
Louisiana 6.4 6.6 7.5 7.9 8.8 9.3 9.8 10.1 10.0 9.5 9.0 7.1 4.4
South Alabama 6.4 6.8 7.3 8.1 9.1 9.1 9.7 9.6 9.7 9.6 9.2 7.1 4.7
Appalachian St. 6.4 6.1 7.1 8.7 9.2 9.8 9.8 10.1 9.4 9.3 8.4 7.0 5.1
Georgia Southern 6.4 5.8 7.3 8.6 9.8 9.8 9.9 9.3 9.4 8.8 8.6 7.4 5.3
Arkansas St. 7.5 2.6 4.2 5.7 6.5 8.6 8.6 10.5 10.7 10.8 11.4 10.7 9.8
Louisiana Monroe 9.1 0.7 1.5 2.2 3.4 4.4 5.8 7.3 8.5 10.9 14.2 19.1 22.0
Troy 9.0 0.9 1.6 2.5 3.6 4.5 5.7 7.6 8.9 11.3 14.0 18.6 20.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Georgia St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.5 3.5 5.1 6.6 8.7 10.5 12.0 12.5 13.0 11.3 7.8 3.4
Arkansas Little Rock 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.3 5.2 7.1 8.4 9.5 11.2 11.7 11.0 10.0 8.2 5.6 2.8 1.0
Texas St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.9 4.6 6.0 8.2 9.1 10.2 11.3 11.2 10.5 8.9 6.9 4.1 2.3 0.7
Texas Arlington 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.5 3.8 4.9 7.0 8.9 9.8 10.7 11.2 11.0 8.9 7.5 5.7 3.5 1.6 0.5
Coastal Carolina 10 - 8 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.8 5.5 7.1 8.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 9.9 8.9 7.6 5.5 3.8 2.3 1.2 0.3
Louisiana 9 - 9 0.2 1.0 2.2 3.5 5.7 7.1 8.8 10.2 11.1 10.5 9.8 8.2 7.4 5.3 3.8 2.6 1.6 0.7 0.1
South Alabama 9 - 9 0.3 1.1 2.2 3.7 5.5 7.0 8.8 10.3 10.5 10.3 9.7 8.6 7.3 5.8 4.1 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.1
Appalachian St. 9 - 9 0.2 0.9 2.1 3.4 5.4 7.2 8.7 9.9 10.8 10.5 10.1 8.6 7.6 5.9 4.3 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.1
Georgia Southern 9 - 9 0.3 0.9 2.2 3.9 5.5 7.2 8.4 9.9 10.2 10.6 10.0 8.9 7.5 6.0 3.8 2.7 1.3 0.6 0.2
Arkansas St. 7 - 11 0.6 2.0 3.9 6.4 8.0 9.5 11.0 10.9 10.9 9.6 8.5 6.6 5.0 3.0 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 5 - 13 2.3 6.3 9.3 11.4 12.4 12.4 11.1 9.1 8.4 5.9 4.7 2.8 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Troy 6 - 12 2.4 5.5 9.4 11.1 12.0 11.9 11.3 10.0 8.0 6.6 4.5 3.1 2.0 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Georgia St. 38.1% 27.5 8.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 19.7% 12.4 5.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Texas St. 15.6% 9.4 4.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Texas Arlington 12.6% 7.6 3.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 9.6% 5.8 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
Louisiana 6.6% 3.8 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
South Alabama 6.8% 3.9 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Appalachian St. 6.1% 3.3 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Georgia Southern 5.8% 3.1 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Arkansas St. 2.6% 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 0.7% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Troy 0.9% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Georgia St. 28.7% 27.5% 1.2% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 2.0 5.3 8.6 6.4 2.3 0.4 71.3 1.7%
Arkansas Little Rock 16.5% 16.0% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 3.1 5.5 3.7 1.3 0.3 83.5 0.7%
Texas St. 15.3% 15.1% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.4 3.8 5.0 2.9 1.2 84.7 0.2%
Texas Arlington 11.9% 11.7% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.2 3.1 2.4 0.8 88.1 0.2%
Coastal Carolina 8.0% 7.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.3 2.5 1.4 0.4 92.0 0.1%
Louisiana 5.8% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 1.8 0.8 0.1 94.2 0.1%
South Alabama 5.0% 4.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.6 0.9 0.2 95.0 0.1%
Appalachian St. 4.3% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.1 0.3 95.7 0.1%
Georgia Southern 4.2% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 0.9 0.3 95.8 0.0%
Arkansas St. 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.2 98.0 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.5 0.0%
Troy 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Georgia St. 28.7% 0.8% 28.3% 7.2% 2.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 16.5% 0.4% 16.3% 3.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 15.3% 0.4% 15.1% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 11.9% 0.3% 11.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 8.0% 0.2% 7.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 5.8% 0.1% 5.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 5.0% 0.1% 5.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 4.3% 0.2% 4.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 4.2% 0.1% 4.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.4 2.6 0.0
1st Round 99.7% 1.0 0.3 98.0 1.6 0.0
2nd Round 18.3% 0.2 81.7 18.1 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 5.4% 0.1 94.6 5.4 0.0
Elite Eight 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0