Preseason Rankings
Western Athletic
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
92 New Mexico St. 58.3%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 2 14 - 2 +5.8      +2.6 102 +3.1 89 60.4 338 0.0 1 0.0 1
177 Grand Canyon 18.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 9 11 - 5 -0.9      +0.7 146 -1.6 220 68.2 199 0.0 1 0.0 1
214 Cal St. Bakersfield 0.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 11 0 - 0 -3.6      -3.0 262 -0.6 187 62.8 318 0.0 1 0.0 1
231 UT Rio Grande Valley 8.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 10 10 - 6 -4.4      -2.7 249 -1.8 223 73.7 64 0.0 1 0.0 1
271 California Baptist 5.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 11 9 - 7 -6.4      -0.9 199 -5.5 316 69.9 141 0.0 1 0.0 1
286 Seattle 4.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 14 8 - 8 -7.0      -3.0 261 -4.0 291 71.9 91 0.0 1 0.0 1
291 Utah Valley 3.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 13 7 - 7 -7.3      -4.9 307 -2.4 243 73.1 73 0.0 1 0.0 1
337 Dixie St. 0.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 17 4 - 12 -14.7      -16.9 347 +2.1 108 69.3 162 0.0 1 0.0 1
340 Tarleton St. 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 15 4 - 10 -15.0      -7.1 329 -7.8 338 69.3 163 0.0 1 0.0 1
345 Chicago St. 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 24 3 - 13 -17.7      -16.8 346 -0.9 200 71.4 104 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
New Mexico St. 1.4 74.3 17.2 5.5 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Grand Canyon 2.6 22.9 35.0 19.8 11.6 6.1 2.9 1.2 0.5 0.1
Cal St. Bakersfield 9.9 0.0 13.9 86.1
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.5 8.2 21.7 24.8 19.1 13.3 7.3 3.6 1.5 0.5
California Baptist 4.1 4.5 14.4 22.1 21.1 17.5 11.2 5.6 2.6 1.0
Seattle 4.4 4.1 12.6 17.5 19.2 19.0 13.1 8.1 4.4 1.9
Utah Valley 5.3 0.7 4.2 10.1 16.6 20.6 22.6 14.5 7.8 2.9
Dixie St. 6.9 0.3 0.9 2.7 5.5 9.9 16.1 22.5 22.6 19.4
Tarleton St. 7.2 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.6 7.5 14.3 23.3 27.8 21.4
Chicago St. 7.5 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.0 6.5 11.8 18.3 25.7 33.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
New Mexico St. 14 - 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 3.0 5.4 9.0 14.9 21.2 24.4 19.7
Grand Canyon 11 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.1 4.1 6.1 9.1 12.5 13.8 16.7 14.0 11.0 6.4 2.3
Cal St. Bakersfield 0 - 16 100.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.6 6.1 9.0 11.6 13.9 14.6 14.0 11.2 7.7 3.7 1.4 0.3
California Baptist 9 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.3 5.5 8.9 12.3 13.6 14.9 13.8 11.4 7.3 4.4 1.8 0.5 0.1
Seattle 8 - 8 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.8 8.0 11.0 12.0 13.6 12.8 11.3 9.1 6.5 3.8 1.7 0.6 0.1
Utah Valley 7 - 9 0.2 1.0 2.8 5.8 9.4 13.1 15.3 16.0 14.1 10.5 6.6 3.2 1.4 0.4 0.0
Dixie St. 4 - 12 3.3 8.1 11.9 16.1 16.7 13.7 11.6 7.7 5.1 3.1 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Tarleton St. 4 - 12 3.3 9.0 15.4 18.1 17.6 14.1 9.8 6.5 3.3 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Chicago St. 3 - 13 7.0 13.4 17.9 18.0 15.0 11.5 8.1 4.4 2.7 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
New Mexico St. 74.3% 62.6 10.4 1.2 0.0 0.0
Grand Canyon 22.9% 14.5 7.4 1.0 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield
UT Rio Grande Valley 8.2% 4.4 3.1 0.7 0.0 0.0
California Baptist 4.5% 2.2 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0
Seattle 4.1% 2.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
Utah Valley 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Dixie St. 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tarleton St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chicago St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
New Mexico St. 58.3% 58.1% 0.2% 14   0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.7 1.5 2.5 6.7 13.3 13.2 8.3 4.1 41.7 0.5%
Grand Canyon 18.8% 18.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 2.4 4.0 5.3 6.1 81.2 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.6 0.2%
UT Rio Grande Valley 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 4.9 91.4 0.0%
California Baptist 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.3 3.4 94.5 0.0%
Seattle 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 3.4 95.6 0.0%
Utah Valley 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.5 96.2 0.0%
Dixie St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Tarleton St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Chicago St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
New Mexico St. 58.3% 1.7% 57.7% 13.0% 4.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 18.8% 3.6% 17.2% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 8.6% 3.2% 7.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 5.5% 2.2% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 4.4% 2.6% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 3.8% 1.8% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dixie St. 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chicago St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.6 0.4 0.0
1st Round 92.9% 0.9 7.1 92.7 0.2
2nd Round 15.0% 0.2 85.0 15.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 4.7% 0.0 95.3 4.7
Elite Eight 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Final Four 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0