Preseason Rankings
Georgia St.
Sun Belt
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.4#106
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace78.2#25
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#90
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#136
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 1.7% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 3.5% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.7% 39.1% 25.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.7% 5.1% 0.8%
Average Seed 12.4 11.3 13.0
.500 or above 86.9% 95.9% 84.1%
.500 or above in Conference 90.7% 96.0% 89.0%
Conference Champion 38.1% 47.7% 35.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 0.8%
First Four0.8% 1.6% 0.5%
First Round28.3% 38.1% 25.2%
Second Round7.2% 12.3% 5.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.4% 4.0% 1.9%
Elite Eight0.6% 1.3% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Tech (Away) - 23.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 36 - 36 - 6
Quad 410 - 216 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 63   @ Georgia Tech L 74-82 24%    
  Nov 30, 2020 183   @ Mercer W 79-76 60%    
  Dec 04, 2020 164   @ Charlotte W 75-73 57%    
  Dec 16, 2020 183   Mercer W 82-73 78%    
  Dec 21, 2020 162   College of Charleston W 79-71 75%    
  Jan 01, 2021 175   @ Coastal Carolina W 86-84 58%    
  Jan 02, 2021 175   @ Coastal Carolina W 86-84 58%    
  Jan 08, 2021 281   @ Troy W 83-75 76%    
  Jan 09, 2021 281   @ Troy W 83-75 75%    
  Jan 15, 2021 175   Coastal Carolina W 89-81 75%    
  Jan 16, 2021 175   Coastal Carolina W 89-81 75%    
  Jan 22, 2021 194   @ Appalachian St. W 78-74 62%    
  Jan 23, 2021 194   @ Appalachian St. W 78-74 62%    
  Jan 29, 2021 187   South Alabama W 80-71 78%    
  Jan 30, 2021 187   South Alabama W 80-71 77%    
  Feb 05, 2021 194   Appalachian St. W 81-71 79%    
  Feb 06, 2021 194   Appalachian St. W 81-71 79%    
  Feb 11, 2021 203   Georgia Southern W 87-77 80%    
  Feb 13, 2021 203   @ Georgia Southern W 84-80 64%    
  Feb 19, 2021 281   Troy W 86-72 88%    
  Feb 20, 2021 281   Troy W 86-72 87%    
  Feb 26, 2021 187   @ South Alabama W 77-74 61%    
  Feb 27, 2021 187   @ South Alabama W 77-74 60%    
Projected Record 16 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 2.2 5.0 9.5 10.0 7.5 3.4 38.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.5 5.6 6.0 3.3 1.2 0.2 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.6 3.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.2 1.7 3.8 2.5 0.7 0.0 9.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 2.7 1.9 0.4 0.0 6.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 2.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.5 3.5 5.1 6.6 8.7 10.5 12.0 12.5 13.0 11.3 7.8 3.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.4    3.3 0.2
17-1 97.2% 7.5    6.9 0.6
16-2 89.0% 10.0    8.2 1.8 0.1
15-3 73.0% 9.5    6.2 2.9 0.4 0.0
14-4 39.9% 5.0    2.3 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 18.5% 2.2    0.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.0% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 38.1% 38.1 27.5 8.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.4% 98.7% 95.5% 3.3% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 72.1%
17-1 7.8% 94.3% 89.1% 5.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.9 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.4 47.3%
16-2 11.3% 76.4% 72.5% 4.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.9 3.2 2.2 0.5 0.0 2.7 14.4%
15-3 13.0% 48.8% 47.4% 1.4% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.2 2.2 0.9 0.1 6.6 2.7%
14-4 12.5% 19.0% 18.5% 0.5% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.1 10.1 0.6%
13-5 12.0% 5.0% 4.9% 0.1% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 11.4 0.1%
12-6 10.5% 0.7% 0.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.4
11-7 8.7% 8.7
10-8 6.6% 6.6
9-9 5.1% 5.1
8-10 3.5% 3.5
7-11 2.5% 2.5
6-12 1.6% 1.6
5-13 0.9% 0.9
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 28.7% 27.5% 1.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 2.0 5.3 8.6 6.4 2.3 0.4 71.3 1.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 5.0 4.4 2.8 13.0 20.6 24.7 17.6 5.7 1.4 7.4 1.0 1.2 0.1