IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Missouri St.
Missouri Valley
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+1.7	#135
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.0	#203
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.4	#133

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.3	#159

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.4%	0.5%	0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	8.4%	9.0%	4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	1.9%	2.1%	0.6%
Average Seed	11.8	11.7	13.2

.500 or above	67.8%	71.9%	42.5%
.500 or above in Conference	55.1%	57.9%	38.3%
Conference Champion	7.3%	7.9%	3.6%
Last Place in Conference	7.6%	6.7%	13.6%

First Four	0.9%	0.9%	0.5%
First Round	7.9%	8.5%	4.1%
Second Round	2.0%	2.2%	0.8%
Sweet Sixteen	0.6%	0.7%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Final Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Home) - 86.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 5
Quad 3	5 - 4	6 - 9
Quad 4	8 - 1	14 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Dec 01, 2020	285	Central Arkansas	W	86-74	86%
Dec 05, 2020	348	Mississippi Valley	W	96-70	99%
Dec 12, 2020	319	SE Louisiana	W	84-69	91%
Dec 19, 2020	283	Northwestern St.	W	84-72	85%
Dec 21, 2020	127	Arkansas Little Rock	W	75-73	59%
Mar 08, 2021	64	@ Northern Iowa	L	66-76	20%
Mar 08, 2021	76	@ Loyola Chicago	L	63-72	23%
Mar 08, 2021	117	@ Bradley	L	68-73	35%
Mar 08, 2021	122	@ Indiana St.	L	69-73	36%
Mar 08, 2021	144	Drake	W	74-70	62%
Mar 08, 2021	155	Valparaiso	W	75-71	64%
Mar 08, 2021	168	Southern Illinois	W	68-63	67%
Mar 08, 2021	188	Illinois St.	W	75-68	71%
Mar 08, 2021	261	Evansville	W	76-65	82%
Mar 09, 2021	64	Northern Iowa	L	69-73	37%
Mar 09, 2021	76	Loyola Chicago	L	66-69	42%
Mar 09, 2021	117	Bradley	W	71-70	54%
Mar 09, 2021	122	Indiana St.	W	72-70	56%
Mar 09, 2021	144	@ Drake	L	71-73	42%
Mar 09, 2021	155	@ Valparaiso	L	72-74	44%
Mar 09, 2021	168	@ Southern Illinois	L	65-66	48%
Mar 09, 2021	188	@ Illinois St.	W	72-71	52%
Mar 09, 2021	261	@ Evansville	W	73-68	65%
Projected Record						13 - 10	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Missouri Valley Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	1.0	1.6	2.1	1.5	0.6	0.2		7.3	1st
2nd										0.0	0.1	0.8	2.5	3.4	2.4	0.8	0.1				10.2	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.1	1.4	4.0	4.2	1.8	0.3	0.0					11.8	3rd
4th									0.4	2.1	4.9	3.9	1.4	0.1							12.8	4th
5th							0.0	0.4	2.7	5.3	3.4	0.7	0.0								12.6	5th
6th						0.0	0.4	2.9	5.1	3.0	0.6	0.0									12.1	6th
7th					0.0	0.8	3.2	4.7	2.3	0.4	0.0										11.4	7th
8th				0.1	1.1	2.9	3.5	1.5	0.2												9.4	8th
9th		0.0	0.3	1.5	3.0	2.2	0.8	0.1													7.9	9th
10th	0.2	0.7	1.1	1.3	0.9	0.2	0.0														4.6	10th

Total	0.2	0.7	1.4	3.0	5.0	6.2	7.9	9.6	10.8	10.9	10.3	9.4	8.4	6.4	4.4	2.9	1.6	0.6	0.2			Total

Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
17-1	100.0%	0.6		0.6	0.0
16-2	94.8%	1.5		1.3	0.2	0.0
15-3	71.0%	2.1		1.4	0.7	0.0
14-4	37.0%	1.6		0.8	0.7	0.2	0.0
13-5	15.9%	1.0		0.3	0.4	0.3	0.0	0.0
12-6	3.1%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0					0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	7.3%	7.3		4.5	2.1	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.2%		99.4%	51.9%	47.5%	5.2		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0	0.0					0.0		98.7%
17-1	0.6%		96.8%	51.0%	45.8%	7.0		0.0		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0					0.0		93.4%
16-2	1.6%		71.5%	39.9%	31.6%	9.8					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0			0.5		52.6%
15-3	2.9%		46.9%	28.5%	18.4%	11.2				0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.0			1.5		25.7%
14-4	4.4%		26.0%	20.4%	5.6%	12.1										0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.0		3.3		7.0%
13-5	6.4%		18.6%	17.3%	1.3%	12.6										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.0		5.2		1.5%
12-6	8.4%		11.9%	11.9%	0.0%	13.1												0.0	0.2	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.0	7.4		0.0%
11-7	9.4%		7.8%	7.8%		13.6												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	8.7
10-8	10.3%		3.6%	3.6%		13.9													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	10.0
9-9	10.9%		2.8%	2.8%		14.6														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	10.6
8-10	10.8%		1.8%	1.8%		15.4															0.0	0.1	0.1	10.6
7-11	9.6%		1.1%	1.1%		15.3																0.1	0.0	9.5
6-12	7.9%		0.5%	0.5%		15.9																0.0	0.0	7.9
5-13	6.2%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	6.2
4-14	5.0%																							5.0
3-15	3.0%																							3.0
2-16	1.4%																							1.4
1-17	0.7%																							0.7
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		8.4%	6.6%	1.7%	11.8		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.9	2.0	2.0	1.0	0.6	0.2	91.6		1.9%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	3.5	13.5	5.4	44.6	13.5	10.8	1.4	10.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	5.9	19.0			19.0	19.0	2.4		21.4			19.0