Preseason Rankings
Murray St.
Ohio Valley
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.5#105
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.0#140
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#129
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#97
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.5% 2.3% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.1% 37.9% 25.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.2% 1.9% 0.3%
Average Seed 12.6 12.3 13.5
.500 or above 96.8% 98.9% 93.2%
.500 or above in Conference 97.5% 98.7% 95.4%
Conference Champion 40.5% 45.9% 31.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
First Round32.7% 37.5% 24.6%
Second Round7.2% 9.1% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen2.4% 3.0% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Away) - 63.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 11 - 1
Quad 34 - 24 - 4
Quad 414 - 218 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 02, 2020 193   @ Middle Tennessee W 76-72 63%    
  Dec 08, 2020 133   @ Austin Peay L 73-74 48%    
  Dec 15, 2020 302   Prairie View W 81-65 92%    
  Dec 21, 2020 133   Austin Peay W 77-71 69%    
  Dec 30, 2020 114   @ Belmont L 74-77 40%    
  Jan 02, 2021 296   Morehead St. W 79-64 91%    
  Jan 07, 2021 186   @ Eastern Illinois W 75-72 61%    
  Jan 09, 2021 331   @ SIU Edwardsville W 80-66 88%    
  Jan 14, 2021 325   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 79-66 86%    
  Jan 16, 2021 324   @ Tennessee Martin W 84-71 86%    
  Jan 21, 2021 255   Jacksonville St. W 77-64 87%    
  Jan 23, 2021 304   Tennessee Tech W 78-62 90%    
  Jan 28, 2021 269   Tennessee St. W 79-65 87%    
  Jan 30, 2021 114   Belmont W 77-74 62%    
  Feb 04, 2021 296   @ Morehead St. W 76-67 77%    
  Feb 06, 2021 211   @ Eastern Kentucky W 82-77 66%    
  Feb 11, 2021 325   Southeast Missouri St. W 82-63 94%    
  Feb 13, 2021 324   Tennessee Martin W 87-68 94%    
  Feb 18, 2021 186   Eastern Illinois W 78-69 78%    
  Feb 20, 2021 331   SIU Edwardsville W 83-63 95%    
  Feb 25, 2021 255   @ Jacksonville St. W 74-67 72%    
  Feb 27, 2021 304   @ Tennessee Tech W 75-65 79%    
Projected Record 17 - 5 16 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.9 9.9 11.6 9.1 3.4 40.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.7 7.7 5.3 1.3 0.0 23.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.0 5.3 4.8 2.0 0.2 16.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 3.2 2.2 0.6 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.9 0.9 0.1 5.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.3 2.4 3.6 5.6 7.5 10.5 12.5 14.6 15.4 12.8 9.1 3.4 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 3.4    3.4
19-1 100.0% 9.1    8.7 0.4
18-2 90.3% 11.6    9.2 2.3 0.1
17-3 64.1% 9.9    5.8 3.6 0.4
16-4 33.8% 4.9    2.1 2.3 0.6 0.0
15-5 11.0% 1.4    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1
14-6 2.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 40.5% 40.5 29.6 9.3 1.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 3.4% 86.1% 72.9% 13.2% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 48.8%
19-1 9.1% 66.0% 62.5% 3.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.1 9.4%
18-2 12.8% 53.5% 53.1% 0.5% 12.7 0.1 0.4 2.2 3.1 1.0 0.1 6.0 1.0%
17-3 15.4% 42.6% 42.5% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 1.0 3.0 2.1 0.4 0.0 8.8 0.0%
16-4 14.6% 33.3% 33.3% 13.9 0.2 1.3 2.3 1.0 0.0 9.7
15-5 12.5% 23.7% 23.7% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.2 9.6
14-6 10.5% 15.3% 15.3% 14.7 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 8.9
13-7 7.5% 9.8% 9.8% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 6.8
12-8 5.6% 7.2% 7.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 5.2
11-9 3.6% 3.2% 3.2% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.4
10-10 2.4% 1.7% 1.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.4
9-11 1.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.3
8-12 0.6% 0.6
7-13 0.4% 0.4
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 33.1% 32.3% 0.8% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.9 5.6 9.3 7.6 3.8 1.2 66.9 1.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0% 100.0% 5.7 0.6 4.5 8.5 19.0 18.3 20.8 10.5 4.4 4.8 3.3 2.4 2.5 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 59.2% 10.8 1.9 1.9 8.7 7.6 16.7 20.1 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 50.8% 11.2 4.1 7.0 19.7 16.4 3.3 0.4