IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
New Mexico
Mountain West
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-1.0	#180
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	76.7	#33
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.2	#165

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.3	#214

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.4%	6.0%	1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.6%	2.2%	0.2%
Average Seed	12.5	11.7	13.1

.500 or above	28.2%	51.6%	23.6%
.500 or above in Conference	30.8%	54.9%	26.1%
Conference Champion	1.5%	5.0%	0.8%
Last Place in Conference	12.6%	4.0%	14.3%

First Four	0.4%	1.0%	0.2%
First Round	2.2%	5.4%	1.6%
Second Round	0.4%	1.2%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Boise St. (Away) - 16.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 5	1 - 7
Quad 3	3 - 5	4 - 12
Quad 4	4 - 1	8 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Dec 03, 2020	86	@ Boise St.	L	73-83	16%
Dec 05, 2020	86	@ Boise St.	L	73-83	17%
Dec 31, 2020	150	Fresno St.	W	73-72	55%
Jan 02, 2021	150	Fresno St.	W	73-72	54%
Jan 07, 2021	75	Utah St.	L	72-78	30%
Jan 09, 2021	75	Utah St.	L	72-78	31%
Jan 14, 2021	102	@ UNLV	L	72-81	23%
Jan 16, 2021	102	@ UNLV	L	72-81	23%
Jan 21, 2021	282	San Jose St.	W	89-80	77%
Jan 23, 2021	282	San Jose St.	W	89-80	77%
Jan 28, 2021	150	@ Fresno St.	L	70-75	35%
Jan 30, 2021	150	@ Fresno St.	L	70-75	35%
Feb 03, 2021	36	San Diego St.	L	68-77	22%
Feb 05, 2021	36	San Diego St.	L	68-77	22%
Feb 11, 2021	112	@ Colorado St.	L	77-85	25%
Feb 13, 2021	112	@ Colorado St.	L	77-85	25%
Feb 17, 2021	169	Wyoming	W	75-72	58%
Feb 19, 2021	169	Wyoming	W	75-72	58%
Feb 22, 2021	225	@ Air Force	W	80-79	50%
Feb 24, 2021	225	@ Air Force	W	80-79	51%
Projected Record						8 - 12	8 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mountain West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0		1.5	1st
2nd												0.0	0.1	0.6	1.0	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0				3.1	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.3	1.3	1.7	1.1	0.3	0.0						4.8	3rd
4th									0.0	0.0	0.6	2.0	2.4	1.1	0.2	0.0							6.4	4th
5th									0.1	1.1	3.0	3.3	1.3	0.2	0.0								8.9	5th
6th								0.2	1.5	3.9	4.1	1.5	0.2	0.0									11.4	6th
7th						0.0	0.4	2.2	4.9	4.3	1.5	0.1											13.4	7th
8th					0.1	0.8	3.1	5.1	3.6	1.1	0.1												14.0	8th
9th			0.0	0.3	1.6	4.4	5.2	3.2	0.9	0.1	0.0												15.6	9th
10th		0.0	0.9	2.5	3.9	3.6	1.7	0.4	0.0														12.9	10th
11th	0.4	1.2	2.2	2.3	1.3	0.5	0.1																8.0	11th

Total	0.4	1.3	3.1	5.0	6.9	9.3	10.5	11.1	11.1	10.5	9.2	7.2	5.4	3.6	2.5	1.6	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0			Total

Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
18-2	93.9%	0.2		0.1	0.0
17-3	73.8%	0.3		0.2	0.1	0.0
16-4	55.5%	0.4		0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0
15-5	22.8%	0.4		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
14-6	6.6%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-7	1.0%	0.0			0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	1.5%	1.5		0.7	0.6	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%											0.0
19-1	0.1%		100.0%	32.6%	67.4%	7.5				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0							100.0%
18-2	0.2%		67.7%	22.0%	45.7%	9.4					0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.1		58.6%
17-3	0.4%		62.5%	22.9%	39.7%	10.8								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0				0.1		51.4%
16-4	0.7%		34.3%	15.1%	19.3%	11.4									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0				0.5		22.7%
15-5	1.6%		20.5%	13.5%	6.9%	11.6									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0			1.3		8.0%
14-6	2.5%		12.0%	11.5%	0.4%	12.8												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0		2.2		0.5%
13-7	3.6%		6.9%	6.9%	0.1%	12.9													0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		3.4		0.1%
12-8	5.4%		4.4%	4.4%		13.7												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0		5.1
11-9	7.2%		3.4%	3.4%		14.1													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	7.0
10-10	9.2%		2.3%	2.3%		14.7														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	9.0
9-11	10.5%		0.7%	0.7%		15.1														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10.4
8-12	11.1%		0.6%	0.6%		15.7																0.0	0.0	11.0
7-13	11.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.1
6-14	10.5%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.5
5-15	9.3%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	9.3
4-16	6.9%																							6.9
3-17	5.0%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	5.0
2-18	3.1%																							3.1
1-19	1.3%																							1.3
0-20	0.4%																							0.4

Total	100%		2.4%	1.9%	0.5%	12.5				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.1	97.6		0.6%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.3%