Preseason Rankings
Nicholls St.
Southland
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#234
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.2#136
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#209
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#265
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.8% 11.6% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 54.1% 69.7% 42.0%
.500 or above in Conference 77.8% 84.8% 72.5%
Conference Champion 10.2% 14.0% 7.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.7% 2.5%
First Four3.7% 4.0% 3.5%
First Round7.3% 10.1% 5.1%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Davis (Neutral) - 43.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 32 - 7
Quad 411 - 512 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 204   UC Davis L 73-75 43%    
  Nov 27, 2020 299   Idaho St. W 76-73 62%    
  Nov 28, 2020 125   @ Santa Clara L 73-83 19%    
  Nov 30, 2020 107   @ California L 64-76 14%    
  Dec 01, 2020 74   @ St. Mary's L 62-77 8%    
  Dec 08, 2020 2   @ Baylor L 59-85 1%    
  Dec 23, 2020 168   @ Southern Illinois L 63-70 27%    
  Jan 02, 2021 246   Sam Houston St. W 79-75 62%    
  Jan 06, 2021 236   Lamar W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 09, 2021 319   SE Louisiana W 82-73 78%    
  Jan 13, 2021 283   @ Northwestern St. L 79-80 48%    
  Jan 16, 2021 285   @ Central Arkansas L 81-82 48%    
  Jan 20, 2021 339   @ Houston Baptist W 91-84 72%    
  Jan 23, 2021 312   New Orleans W 81-73 74%    
  Jan 27, 2021 306   McNeese St. W 81-74 71%    
  Feb 06, 2021 246   @ Sam Houston St. L 76-78 42%    
  Feb 10, 2021 236   @ Lamar L 72-75 39%    
  Feb 13, 2021 319   @ SE Louisiana W 79-76 59%    
  Feb 17, 2021 283   Northwestern St. W 82-77 67%    
  Feb 20, 2021 285   Central Arkansas W 84-79 66%    
  Feb 24, 2021 339   Houston Baptist W 94-81 86%    
  Feb 27, 2021 312   @ New Orleans W 78-76 55%    
  Mar 03, 2021 306   @ McNeese St. W 78-77 52%    
Projected Record 12 - 11 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 3.2 2.6 1.0 10.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.0 5.5 2.3 0.6 0.1 16.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.5 5.8 4.4 1.4 0.2 14.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 5.2 3.8 1.0 0.1 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.5 3.8 0.9 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.3 3.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 3.8 1.2 0.1 7.3 7th
8th 0.2 1.3 3.4 1.5 0.1 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 2.6 1.7 0.2 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.1 6.0 8.0 9.9 11.7 12.8 12.8 11.4 9.3 5.7 3.2 1.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 93.7% 1.0    0.9 0.2
15-1 82.2% 2.6    1.7 0.9 0.0
14-2 55.5% 3.2    1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0
13-3 25.5% 2.4    0.7 1.2 0.5 0.0
12-4 8.0% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-5 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 10.2% 10.2 5.0 3.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.1% 45.5% 45.5% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6
15-1 3.2% 36.9% 36.9% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 2.0
14-2 5.7% 28.7% 28.7% 15.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 4.1
13-3 9.3% 21.9% 21.9% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 7.3
12-4 11.4% 12.9% 12.9% 15.8 0.0 0.2 1.2 9.9
11-5 12.8% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 11.7
10-6 12.8% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 12.3
9-7 11.7% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 11.5
8-8 9.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 9.7
7-9 8.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.9
6-10 6.0% 6.0
5-11 4.1% 4.1
4-12 2.3% 2.3
3-13 1.1% 1.1
2-14 0.4% 0.4
1-15 0.2% 0.2
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.0 5.6 91.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%