IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+1.7	#136
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	75.7	#39
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.4	#161

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.4	#126

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.3%	0.9%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	32.5%	43.0%	32.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.7%	0.1%
Average Seed	15.9	13.6	14.6

.500 or above	92.2%	97.7%	89.1%
.500 or above in Conference	91.8%	90.7%	92.5%
Conference Champion	51.9%	61.1%	46.7%
Last Place in Conference	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%

First Four	3.7%	2.1%	4.5%
First Round	35.0%	42.1%	30.9%
Second Round	4.2%	6.5%	2.8%
Sweet Sixteen	1.2%	1.8%	0.8%
Elite Eight	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Final Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Rhode Island (Neutral) - 36.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 1	1 - 2
Quad 3	3 - 3	4 - 5
Quad 4	14 - 3	18 - 8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	93	Rhode Island	L	76-80	36%
Nov 26, 2020	85	St. Bonaventure	L	70-75	34%
Nov 26, 2020	91	San Francisco	L	74-78	35%
Nov 27, 2020	184	Towson	W	74-71	60%
Dec 05, 2020	334	Alcorn St.	W	87-69	95%
Dec 12, 2020	278	@ Louisiana Monroe	W	73-68	68%
Dec 16, 2020	219	Arkansas St.	W	80-71	77%
Dec 21, 2020	319	SE Louisiana	W	87-72	91%
Jan 02, 2021	312	New Orleans	W	86-72	88%
Jan 06, 2021	303	@ TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	75-68	73%
Jan 13, 2021	285	Central Arkansas	W	89-77	84%
Jan 16, 2021	336	@ Incarnate Word	W	80-67	87%
Jan 20, 2021	283	Northwestern St.	W	87-75	84%
Jan 23, 2021	236	Lamar	W	79-70	78%
Jan 27, 2021	173	@ Abilene Christian	L	73-74	48%
Jan 30, 2021	246	Sam Houston St.	W	84-74	80%
Feb 06, 2021	312	@ New Orleans	W	83-75	75%
Feb 10, 2021	303	TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	78-65	86%
Feb 17, 2021	285	@ Central Arkansas	W	86-80	68%
Feb 20, 2021	336	Incarnate Word	W	83-64	94%
Feb 24, 2021	283	@ Northwestern St.	W	84-78	69%
Feb 27, 2021	236	@ Lamar	W	76-73	60%
Mar 03, 2021	173	Abilene Christian	W	76-71	67%
Mar 06, 2021	246	@ Sam Houston St.	W	81-77	63%
Projected Record						17 - 7	13 - 4

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southland Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.2	2.1	6.9	12.6	14.2	10.6		46.7	1st
2nd										0.0	0.2	2.2	5.5	6.6	3.2	0.5	0.0		18.1	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.1	1.3	3.9	3.7	1.3	0.2	0.0			10.4	3rd
4th									0.0	0.7	2.5	2.7	0.7	0.0					6.6	4th
5th								0.0	0.2	1.6	2.1	0.6	0.1						4.6	5th
6th								0.1	0.8	1.6	0.5	0.0							3.0	6th
7th							0.0	0.4	1.2	0.6	0.0								2.2	7th
8th						0.0	0.1	0.6	0.5	0.1									1.3	8th
9th					0.0	0.0	0.4	0.4	0.1										0.9	9th
10th				0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.0	0.0										0.5	10th
11th				0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0												0.2	11th
12th		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0												0.1	12th
13th	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0													0.0	13th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.9	1.6	2.9	4.6	6.6	9.6	12.0	14.8	15.9	14.7	10.6			Total

Southland Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	10.6		10.4	0.2
15-1	96.3%	14.2		12.1	2.1	0.1
14-2	79.2%	12.6		8.3	3.9	0.5	0.0
13-3	46.8%	6.9		3.0	2.9	1.0	0.1
12-4	17.6%	2.1		0.5	0.8	0.6	0.2	0.0
11-5	2.3%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.0
10-6	0.0%	0.0						0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	46.7%	46.7		34.2	9.9	2.2	0.4	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	10.6%		62.7%	62.2%	0.4%	13.4										0.0	0.1	0.2	1.0	2.3	2.0	1.0	0.1	4.0		1.1%
15-1	14.7%		55.0%	55.0%		14.0												0.0	0.5	1.9	2.9	2.2	0.6	6.6
14-2	15.9%		44.1%	44.1%		14.7													0.1	0.7	2.1	2.7	1.4	8.9
13-3	14.8%		33.6%	33.6%		15.1													0.0	0.1	1.0	2.0	1.9	9.8
12-4	12.0%		25.2%	25.2%		15.4														0.1	0.3	1.0	1.7	9.0
11-5	9.6%		17.3%	17.3%		15.7															0.1	0.4	1.2	8.0
10-6	6.6%		9.8%	9.8%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.6	5.9
9-7	4.6%		6.0%	6.0%		15.9																0.0	0.3	4.3
8-8	2.9%		3.0%	3.0%		16.0																	0.1	2.8
7-9	1.6%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.0	1.6
6-10	0.9%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.0	0.8
5-11	0.3%																							0.3
4-12	0.1%																							0.1
3-13	0.1%																							0.1
2-14	0.0%																							0.0
1-15	0.0%																							0.0
0-16	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		32.5%	32.4%	0.0%	14.5										0.0	0.1	0.2	1.6	5.1	8.3	9.4	7.7	67.5		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.5%	100.0%	7.0		0.2	3.5	12.5	16.7	15.2	13.2	11.2	8.8	9.0	4.9	4.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	39.4%	11.6										6.1	3.0	30.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%	64.9%	12.0											13.0	41.6	10.4