Preseason Rankings
UC San Diego
Big West
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.5#232
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.3#164
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-10.6#340
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#26
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 52.2% 65.1% 33.4%
.500 or above in Conference 65.9% 78.2% 48.2%
Conference Champion 6.9% 10.0% 2.5%
Last Place in Conference 8.4% 2.9% 16.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Away) - 59.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 32 - 42 - 6
Quad 48 - 410 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Jan 01, 2021 315   @ Cal Poly W 65-63 59%    
  Jan 02, 2021 315   @ Cal Poly W 65-63 59%    
  Jan 08, 2021 308   Cal St. Northridge W 73-66 74%    
  Jan 09, 2021 308   Cal St. Northridge W 73-66 74%    
  Jan 15, 2021 141   @ UC Santa Barbara L 57-66 23%    
  Jan 16, 2021 141   @ UC Santa Barbara L 57-66 23%    
  Jan 22, 2021 204   UC Davis W 65-64 55%    
  Jan 23, 2021 204   UC Davis W 65-64 55%    
  Jan 29, 2021 228   @ Long Beach St. L 65-68 40%    
  Jan 30, 2021 228   @ Long Beach St. L 65-68 39%    
  Feb 05, 2021 200   Hawaii W 64-63 54%    
  Feb 06, 2021 200   Hawaii W 64-63 54%    
  Feb 12, 2021 214   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 58-62 38%    
  Feb 13, 2021 214   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 58-62 38%    
  Feb 19, 2021 208   UC Riverside W 58-56 55%    
  Feb 20, 2021 208   UC Riverside W 58-56 56%    
  Feb 26, 2021 119   @ UC Irvine L 57-68 19%    
  Feb 27, 2021 119   @ UC Irvine L 57-68 19%    
  Mar 05, 2021 298   Cal St. Fullerton W 66-60 70%    
  Mar 06, 2021 298   Cal St. Fullerton W 66-60 70%    
Projected Record 10 - 10 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.7 1.9 1.0 6.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.2 3.5 2.1 0.6 0.1 10.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.2 4.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 12.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.2 3.9 1.0 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.4 3.4 0.7 0.1 12.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.4 2.9 0.5 0.0 12.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.0 4.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.8 3.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 9.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.3 2.2 1.1 0.2 7.1 9th
10th 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 5.3 10th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.2 3.0 4.1 6.1 8.2 9.8 11.0 11.5 11.0 9.9 8.6 6.2 4.2 2.5 1.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 91.0% 1.0    0.9 0.1
15-1 75.4% 1.9    1.4 0.5 0.0
14-2 42.1% 1.7    0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-3 19.2% 1.2    0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-4 3.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-5 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 6.1% 6.1 3.5 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.1% 1.1
15-1 2.5% 2.5
14-2 4.2% 4.2
13-3 6.2% 6.2
12-4 8.6% 8.6
11-5 9.9% 9.9
10-6 11.0% 11.0
9-7 11.5% 11.5
8-8 11.0% 11.0
7-9 9.8% 9.8
6-10 8.2% 8.2
5-11 6.1% 6.1
4-12 4.1% 4.1
3-13 3.0% 3.0
2-14 1.2% 1.2
1-15 0.7% 0.7
0-16 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1%
Lose Out 0.1%