Pre-tourney Rankings
Big Ten
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
10 Iowa 100.0%   5   26 - 9 12 - 8 26 - 9 12 - 8 +17.3      +13.5 1 +3.8 75 73.8 50 +14.5 22 +12.5 5
14 Purdue 100.0%   3   27 - 7 14 - 6 27 - 7 14 - 6 +16.2      +12.4 3 +3.8 77 65.5 251 +17.2 10 +15.9 3
15 Illinois 100.0%   4   22 - 9 15 - 5 22 - 9 15 - 5 +14.6      +8.0 19 +6.6 28 68.3 173 +14.6 21 +17.3 1
24 Michigan 84.0%   11   17 - 14 11 - 9 17 - 14 11 - 9 +12.1      +8.5 17 +3.7 81 66.4 226 +10.8 46 +12.4 6
27 Ohio St. 96.1%   8   19 - 11 12 - 8 19 - 11 12 - 8 +12.0      +9.9 10 +2.0 119 64.4 281 +11.9 35 +12.4 7
30 Wisconsin 100.0%   4   24 - 7 15 - 5 24 - 7 15 - 5 +11.7      +5.4 47 +6.3 31 66.2 230 +16.7 11 +17.0 2
32 Michigan St. 99.6%   7   22 - 12 11 - 9 22 - 12 11 - 9 +11.5      +6.2 33 +5.3 44 69.6 128 +13.2 26 +11.5 8
33 Indiana 52.4%   11   20 - 13 9 - 11 20 - 13 9 - 11 +11.4      +3.9 78 +7.5 17 68.0 187 +10.7 48 +8.8 9
59 Rutgers 24.8%   18 - 13 12 - 8 18 - 13 12 - 8 +9.2      +3.4 87 +5.9 38 64.4 279 +10.1 53 +13.2 4
64 Maryland 0.0%   15 - 17 7 - 13 15 - 17 7 - 13 +8.6      +5.4 46 +3.2 93 67.2 204 +7.0 81 +7.3 10
73 Penn St. 0.0%   14 - 17 7 - 13 14 - 17 7 - 13 +8.2      +2.6 106 +5.6 41 58.5 354 +6.9 82 +6.9 11
78 Northwestern 0.0%   14 - 16 7 - 13 14 - 16 7 - 13 +7.5      +2.9 98 +4.6 56 69.2 141 +6.5 87 +6.4 12
105 Minnesota 0.0%   13 - 17 4 - 16 13 - 17 4 - 16 +4.8      +3.7 80 +1.1 137 64.5 276 +6.1 94 +3.1 13
116 Nebraska 0.0%   10 - 22 4 - 16 10 - 22 4 - 16 +3.2      +2.6 105 +0.7 154 77.4 17 +1.3 147 +3.0 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Iowa 4.0 100.0
Purdue 3.0 100.0
Illinois 1.0 100.0
Michigan 7.0 100.0
Ohio St. 4.0 100.0
Wisconsin 1.0 100.0
Michigan St. 7.0 100.0
Indiana 9.0 100.0
Rutgers 4.0 100.0
Maryland 10.0 100.0
Penn St. 10.0 100.0
Northwestern 10.0 100.0
Minnesota 13.0 100.0
Nebraska 13.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Iowa 12 - 8 100.0
Purdue 14 - 6 100.0
Illinois 15 - 5 100.0
Michigan 11 - 9 100.0
Ohio St. 12 - 8 100.0
Wisconsin 15 - 5 100.0
Michigan St. 11 - 9 100.0
Indiana 9 - 11 100.0
Rutgers 12 - 8 100.0
Maryland 7 - 13 100.0
Penn St. 7 - 13 100.0
Northwestern 7 - 13 100.0
Minnesota 4 - 16 100.0
Nebraska 4 - 16 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Iowa
Purdue
Illinois 100.0% 100.0
Michigan
Ohio St.
Wisconsin 100.0% 100.0
Michigan St.
Indiana
Rutgers
Maryland
Penn St.
Northwestern
Minnesota
Nebraska


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Iowa 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 5   0.0 0.0 3.6 16.5 42.3 29.4 7.6 0.6 0.0
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 3   1.0 13.6 60.5 23.3 1.5 0.0 100.0%
Illinois 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 4   0.0 0.5 16.3 42.9 34.2 5.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Michigan 84.0% 0.0% 84.0% 11   0.0 0.0 0.4 3.8 10.4 28.1 37.5 3.8 0.0 16.0 84.0%
Ohio St. 96.1% 0.0% 96.1% 8   0.0 0.8 6.8 24.6 35.9 21.3 6.2 0.6 0.0 3.9 96.1%
Wisconsin 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 4   0.0 1.1 32.5 50.4 15.4 0.5 100.0%
Michigan St. 99.6% 0.0% 99.6% 7   0.0 1.6 11.1 37.7 35.8 12.2 1.0 0.0 0.4 99.6%
Indiana 52.4% 0.0% 52.4% 11   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 5.6 32.9 13.2 0.0 47.6 52.4%
Rutgers 24.8% 0.0% 24.8% 0.0 0.1 1.2 14.1 9.4 0.0 75.2 24.8%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Minnesota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Iowa 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 79.8% 50.0% 25.2% 13.2% 6.5% 2.9%
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 91.2% 60.5% 30.1% 14.0% 6.0% 2.4%
Illinois 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 78.2% 44.3% 17.6% 7.7% 2.9% 1.0%
Michigan 84.0% 16.7% 77.4% 38.8% 12.9% 4.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
Ohio St. 96.1% 0.0% 96.1% 51.9% 14.3% 5.8% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1%
Wisconsin 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 74.4% 35.0% 10.6% 3.4% 0.9% 0.3%
Michigan St. 99.6% 0.0% 99.6% 52.1% 14.1% 5.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
Indiana 52.4% 33.1% 38.0% 17.1% 6.0% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Rutgers 24.8% 18.8% 14.9% 5.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.6 0.1 5.8 39.8 45.3 8.9
1st Round 100.0% 7.3 0.3 11.8 52.6 32.2 3.1
2nd Round 100.0% 4.9 0.0 0.2 1.9 9.5 24.8 33.1 22.8 7.0 0.8 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 97.1% 2.4 2.9 17.5 35.0 29.8 12.0 2.5 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 69.7% 1.0 30.3 43.0 21.6 4.6 0.4 0.0
Final Four 38.6% 0.4 61.4 33.3 5.0 0.2
Final Game 17.4% 0.2 82.6 16.8 0.6
Champion 6.9% 0.1 93.1 6.9