Preseason Rankings
Air Force
Mountain West
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-8.0#306
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace59.1#353
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#289
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#301
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.6 13.8
.500 or above 7.8% 19.2% 3.9%
.500 or above in Conference 6.3% 13.5% 3.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 37.4% 23.2% 42.2%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Neutral) - 25.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 32 - 82 - 16
Quad 46 - 58 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2021 186   South Dakota L 66-73 25%    
  Nov 13, 2021 108   @ Tulsa L 56-71 8%    
  Nov 17, 2021 211   Texas Southern L 68-71 41%    
  Nov 20, 2021 321   Holy Cross W 68-67 55%    
  Nov 24, 2021 344   Denver W 74-66 75%    
  Nov 27, 2021 236   Idaho St. L 62-63 47%    
  Dec 04, 2021 257   Army W 66-65 51%    
  Dec 08, 2021 161   @ Montana L 58-69 17%    
  Dec 19, 2021 194   @ Arkansas St. L 63-72 22%    
  Dec 21, 2021 185   @ Tarleton St. L 57-67 20%    
  Dec 28, 2021 72   Utah St. L 59-72 15%    
  Jan 01, 2022 138   @ Fresno St. L 57-70 15%    
  Jan 04, 2022 51   @ Colorado St. L 57-78 5%    
  Jan 08, 2022 145   UNLV L 62-69 30%    
  Jan 15, 2022 63   Nevada L 62-76 14%    
  Jan 18, 2022 76   @ Boise St. L 58-76 7%    
  Jan 22, 2022 51   Colorado St. L 60-75 12%    
  Jan 25, 2022 322   @ San Jose St. L 70-72 45%    
  Jan 28, 2022 156   Wyoming L 66-72 33%    
  Feb 01, 2022 72   @ Utah St. L 56-75 7%    
  Feb 05, 2022 240   New Mexico L 64-65 48%    
  Feb 08, 2022 145   @ UNLV L 59-72 16%    
  Feb 12, 2022 42   @ San Diego St. L 52-74 4%    
  Feb 15, 2022 76   Boise St. L 61-73 17%    
  Feb 19, 2022 156   @ Wyoming L 63-75 18%    
  Feb 22, 2022 138   Fresno St. L 60-67 29%    
  Feb 26, 2022 240   @ New Mexico L 61-68 30%    
  Mar 01, 2022 322   San Jose St. W 73-69 64%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.8 2.0 0.5 0.0 7.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.6 2.7 0.5 0.0 11.5 8th
9th 0.1 2.3 6.6 6.5 3.1 0.5 0.0 19.1 9th
10th 1.3 6.6 10.1 6.7 2.1 0.3 0.0 27.0 10th
11th 5.3 9.7 7.7 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 26.6 11th
Total 5.3 11.0 14.3 15.7 14.6 11.9 9.5 6.7 4.7 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 77.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 59.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 30.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 9.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 25.9% 25.9% 9.0 0.0 0.0 25.9%
15-3 0.0% 19.9% 9.6% 10.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.4%
14-4 0.1% 14.4% 8.6% 5.8% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.3%
13-5 0.3% 4.0% 4.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.5% 4.0% 4.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 0.9% 3.3% 3.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
10-8 1.7% 1.3% 1.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
9-9 2.9% 0.8% 0.8% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
8-10 4.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7
7-11 6.7% 0.2% 0.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 6.7
6-12 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.5
5-13 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.9
4-14 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.6
3-15 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.7
2-16 14.3% 14.3
1-17 11.0% 11.0
0-18 5.3% 5.3
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%