Preseason Rankings
Boston University
Patriot League
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#197
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.8#306
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#177
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#230
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.4% 22.3% 11.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 13.7 14.8
.500 or above 65.6% 88.5% 60.8%
.500 or above in Conference 73.9% 89.0% 70.8%
Conference Champion 15.2% 27.6% 12.6%
Last Place in Conference 3.7% 1.0% 4.2%
First Four1.9% 1.3% 2.0%
First Round12.5% 21.6% 10.6%
Second Round1.1% 2.9% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.8% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rhode Island (Away) - 17.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 53 - 8
Quad 414 - 517 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 101   @ Rhode Island L 65-75 17%    
  Nov 16, 2021 134   @ Northeastern L 64-71 27%    
  Nov 18, 2021 213   @ Hartford L 66-68 43%    
  Nov 21, 2021 314   Northern Illinois W 70-63 72%    
  Nov 24, 2021 18   @ Florida St. L 61-80 6%    
  Nov 28, 2021 234   Merrimack W 67-62 67%    
  Dec 01, 2021 238   @ George Washington L 70-71 48%    
  Dec 04, 2021 327   Binghamton W 74-63 83%    
  Dec 08, 2021 258   Umass Lowell W 75-68 71%    
  Dec 11, 2021 270   @ Dartmouth W 68-67 54%    
  Dec 18, 2021 246   Marist W 68-62 69%    
  Jan 01, 2022 294   Bucknell W 77-69 75%    
  Jan 04, 2022 184   @ Navy L 66-70 38%    
  Jan 07, 2022 276   Loyola Maryland W 73-66 73%    
  Jan 10, 2022 259   @ American W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 13, 2022 257   @ Army W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 16, 2022 184   Navy W 69-67 57%    
  Jan 19, 2022 276   @ Loyola Maryland W 70-69 55%    
  Jan 22, 2022 297   Lehigh W 76-67 76%    
  Jan 26, 2022 292   @ Lafayette W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 29, 2022 105   Colgate L 73-77 39%    
  Jan 31, 2022 321   Holy Cross W 77-66 80%    
  Feb 05, 2022 297   @ Lehigh W 73-70 58%    
  Feb 09, 2022 257   Army W 73-66 70%    
  Feb 12, 2022 259   American W 71-64 70%    
  Feb 16, 2022 321   @ Holy Cross W 74-69 64%    
  Feb 19, 2022 105   @ Colgate L 70-80 23%    
  Feb 23, 2022 292   Lafayette W 76-68 74%    
  Feb 26, 2022 294   @ Bucknell W 74-72 58%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.0 4.1 3.8 2.1 0.7 15.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.8 5.7 4.9 2.4 0.5 18.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.9 5.3 3.0 0.7 0.0 16.1 3rd
4th 0.3 2.2 5.1 4.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.4 2.9 0.7 0.1 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.1 10th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.1 4.6 6.3 8.0 9.3 10.4 11.2 10.8 10.1 8.6 6.5 4.3 2.1 0.7 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 100.0% 2.1    2.0 0.1
16-2 87.7% 3.8    3.0 0.7 0.0
15-3 62.6% 4.1    2.6 1.3 0.1
14-4 34.6% 3.0    1.4 1.3 0.3 0.0
13-5 12.6% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.2% 15.2 10.1 4.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 70.2% 64.8% 5.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 15.3%
17-1 2.1% 52.0% 50.3% 1.7% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 3.4%
16-2 4.3% 40.8% 40.4% 0.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.6 0.6%
15-3 6.5% 33.5% 33.4% 0.1% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.1 4.3 0.1%
14-4 8.6% 25.1% 25.1% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.4 6.4
13-5 10.1% 18.6% 18.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 8.2
12-6 10.8% 13.5% 13.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 9.3
11-7 11.2% 9.5% 9.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 10.1
10-8 10.4% 5.3% 5.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 9.8
9-9 9.3% 4.8% 4.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 8.8
8-10 8.0% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.7
7-11 6.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 6.2
6-12 4.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.6
5-13 3.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.1
4-14 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.2
3-15 1.2% 1.2
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 13.4% 13.3% 0.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 3.0 3.7 3.6 86.6 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 6.1 9.0 9.0 31.3 10.4 10.4 9.0 20.9
Lose Out 0.0%