Preseason Rankings
Butler
Big East
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.6#64
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.7#335
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#68
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#56
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.2% 2.3% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 6.7% 6.8% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 12.7% 12.9% 0.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.5% 31.9% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 27.5% 27.9% 3.2%
Average Seed 7.3 7.3 9.0
.500 or above 53.3% 54.0% 10.9%
.500 or above in Conference 47.7% 48.2% 13.8%
Conference Champion 5.7% 5.8% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 11.1% 10.7% 35.2%
First Four3.3% 3.4% 0.6%
First Round29.8% 30.2% 3.8%
Second Round17.3% 17.5% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen7.5% 7.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight3.1% 3.2% 0.2%
Final Four1.3% 1.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: IUPUI (Home) - 98.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 9
Quad 24 - 47 - 13
Quad 34 - 111 - 14
Quad 44 - 015 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 333   IUPUI W 83-60 99%    
  Nov 12, 2021 334   Central Arkansas W 83-60 98%    
  Nov 13, 2021 243   Troy W 74-58 93%    
  Nov 17, 2021 24   Michigan St. L 66-68 44%    
  Nov 22, 2021 13   Houston L 60-66 29%    
  Dec 07, 2021 40   @ Oklahoma L 63-69 32%    
  Dec 11, 2021 330   Eastern Illinois W 80-57 97%    
  Dec 18, 2021 5   Purdue L 62-70 25%    
  Dec 23, 2021 52   @ St. John's L 71-75 37%    
  Dec 29, 2021 112   DePaul W 72-65 72%    
  Jan 01, 2022 25   @ Connecticut L 61-68 27%    
  Jan 04, 2022 41   Seton Hall W 66-65 51%    
  Jan 07, 2022 37   Xavier W 69-68 50%    
  Jan 13, 2022 86   @ Georgetown L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 16, 2022 6   @ Villanova L 59-70 20%    
  Jan 20, 2022 25   Connecticut L 64-65 46%    
  Jan 23, 2022 65   @ Providence L 64-67 41%    
  Jan 26, 2022 48   Creighton W 69-67 55%    
  Jan 29, 2022 86   Georgetown W 71-66 66%    
  Feb 02, 2022 37   @ Xavier L 65-71 32%    
  Feb 05, 2022 52   St. John's W 74-72 56%    
  Feb 08, 2022 48   @ Creighton L 66-70 36%    
  Feb 12, 2022 78   Marquette W 69-65 64%    
  Feb 15, 2022 112   @ DePaul W 69-68 55%    
  Feb 20, 2022 65   Providence W 67-64 60%    
  Feb 23, 2022 41   @ Seton Hall L 63-69 33%    
  Feb 26, 2022 78   @ Marquette L 66-68 45%    
  Mar 05, 2022 6   Villanova L 62-67 36%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 5.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.3 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 7.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 2.4 3.2 2.1 0.6 0.1 9.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.8 3.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.5 3.8 1.6 0.2 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.7 3.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.9 3.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 10.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.9 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 2.2 3.5 2.8 0.8 0.1 10.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.6 2.9 1.7 0.4 0.0 9.1 10th
11th 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.1 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 7.5 11th
Total 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.2 4.9 6.3 7.5 8.7 9.3 9.4 9.4 8.6 8.2 6.5 5.3 4.0 2.6 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 94.1% 0.9    0.8 0.1
17-3 77.7% 1.3    1.0 0.3 0.0
16-4 52.6% 1.4    0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 28.2% 1.1    0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 9.3% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.7% 5.7 3.6 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 51.3% 48.7% 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 47.9% 52.1% 1.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.9% 100.0% 43.8% 56.2% 2.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.7% 99.9% 32.5% 67.4% 3.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
16-4 2.6% 99.7% 23.7% 76.1% 4.3 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-5 4.0% 98.1% 19.7% 78.4% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.6%
14-6 5.3% 93.3% 14.6% 78.7% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 92.1%
13-7 6.5% 82.2% 10.0% 72.2% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 80.2%
12-8 8.2% 64.5% 6.4% 58.1% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.9 62.1%
11-9 8.6% 42.6% 4.7% 37.9% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.0 39.7%
10-10 9.4% 20.5% 2.9% 17.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.5 18.1%
9-11 9.4% 6.1% 1.5% 4.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.8 4.7%
8-12 9.3% 1.8% 1.0% 0.7% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1 0.8%
7-13 8.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 0.1%
6-14 7.5% 0.3% 0.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5
5-15 6.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.3
4-16 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.9
3-17 3.2% 3.2
2-18 2.0% 2.0
1-19 0.9% 0.9
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 31.5% 5.5% 26.0% 7.3 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.3 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.1 3.0 3.2 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 68.5 27.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 73.1 26.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 76.9 23.1