Preseason Rankings
East Tennessee St.
Southern
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.8#141
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.5#297
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#157
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#136
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 1.0% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.2% 20.9% 9.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.2% 2.4% 0.3%
Average Seed 12.8 12.3 13.7
.500 or above 66.9% 81.9% 52.9%
.500 or above in Conference 73.1% 82.7% 64.2%
Conference Champion 17.2% 23.8% 11.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 1.3% 4.9%
First Four0.9% 1.2% 0.7%
First Round14.8% 20.3% 9.6%
Second Round2.9% 4.6% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Appalachian St. (Away) - 48.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 56 - 10
Quad 410 - 316 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 182   @ Appalachian St. L 64-65 48%    
  Nov 14, 2021 23   @ Tennessee L 60-74 10%    
  Nov 18, 2021 343   South Carolina Upstate W 78-60 94%    
  Nov 22, 2021 125   Murray St. L 67-68 46%    
  Dec 01, 2021 74   @ UAB L 63-72 24%    
  Dec 11, 2021 158   Morehead St. W 68-64 64%    
  Dec 14, 2021 286   N.C. A&T W 77-65 83%    
  Dec 18, 2021 252   @ UNC Asheville W 73-69 62%    
  Dec 22, 2021 133   @ Georgia L 73-77 39%    
  Dec 30, 2021 135   @ Chattanooga L 67-70 39%    
  Jan 01, 2022 309   Western Carolina W 79-66 85%    
  Jan 05, 2022 218   VMI W 77-69 73%    
  Jan 08, 2022 139   Wofford W 69-66 60%    
  Jan 12, 2022 109   @ Furman L 66-72 33%    
  Jan 15, 2022 255   @ Samford W 77-73 63%    
  Jan 19, 2022 155   Mercer W 71-67 63%    
  Jan 22, 2022 272   The Citadel W 83-72 81%    
  Jan 26, 2022 149   UNC Greensboro W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 29, 2022 218   @ VMI W 74-72 55%    
  Feb 02, 2022 309   @ Western Carolina W 76-69 72%    
  Feb 05, 2022 139   @ Wofford L 66-69 40%    
  Feb 09, 2022 109   Furman W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 12, 2022 255   Samford W 80-70 79%    
  Feb 16, 2022 155   @ Mercer L 68-70 45%    
  Feb 19, 2022 272   @ The Citadel W 80-75 65%    
  Feb 23, 2022 135   Chattanooga W 70-67 58%    
  Feb 27, 2022 149   @ UNC Greensboro L 67-70 42%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.6 4.7 4.0 2.1 0.7 17.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.3 5.2 4.2 1.6 0.3 15.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.4 5.2 2.7 0.5 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.6 4.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.4 3.7 1.1 0.1 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.9 2.9 0.7 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.1 1.9 0.4 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 10th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.2 3.3 4.8 6.6 8.0 9.4 10.5 11.0 10.7 9.8 8.3 6.4 4.3 2.1 0.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 100.0% 2.1    2.1 0.1
16-2 93.6% 4.0    3.4 0.6 0.0
15-3 74.0% 4.7    3.1 1.5 0.1
14-4 43.6% 3.6    1.7 1.6 0.4 0.0
13-5 17.3% 1.7    0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.2% 17.2 11.5 4.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 82.1% 59.6% 22.5% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 55.8%
17-1 2.1% 70.0% 55.5% 14.5% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 32.7%
16-2 4.3% 51.7% 44.2% 7.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.1 13.4%
15-3 6.4% 38.6% 35.8% 2.8% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.9 4.4%
14-4 8.3% 28.5% 27.6% 0.9% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.9 1.2%
13-5 9.8% 21.7% 21.4% 0.2% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 7.7 0.3%
12-6 10.7% 14.1% 14.0% 0.1% 14.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 9.2 0.1%
11-7 11.0% 9.7% 9.7% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 9.9
10-8 10.5% 6.5% 6.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 9.8
9-9 9.4% 4.1% 4.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 9.0
8-10 8.0% 2.6% 2.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.8
7-11 6.6% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.5
6-12 4.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.8
5-13 3.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.3
4-14 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.2
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 15.2% 14.1% 1.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 2.9 3.9 2.9 2.0 0.9 84.8 1.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.6 4.7 21.3 16.5 36.2 16.5 4.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 3.1 16.2 35.1 16.2 16.2 16.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 3.4 26.9 26.9 23.1 23.1