IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Fresno St.
Mountain West
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+2.0	#138
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.5	#313
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.1	#142

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.8	#144

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.5%	0.6%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	6.0%	6.9%	1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	2.4%	2.8%	0.3%
Average Seed	11.0	10.9	12.9

.500 or above	59.0%	65.1%	29.8%
.500 or above in Conference	56.5%	60.7%	35.8%
Conference Champion	4.3%	4.9%	1.2%
Last Place in Conference	3.5%	2.6%	7.8%

First Four	0.9%	1.1%	0.2%
First Round	5.5%	6.4%	1.4%
Second Round	1.9%	2.2%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.6%	0.7%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: LIU Brooklyn (Home) - 82.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 2	1 - 4
Quad 2	2 - 4	2 - 9
Quad 3	5 - 4	7 - 13
Quad 4	10 - 2	17 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 12, 2021	254	LIU Brooklyn	W	78-68	83%
Nov 15, 2021	341	Idaho	W	77-59	94%
Nov 23, 2021	147	Pepperdine	W	73-72	52%
Nov 25, 2021	124	Santa Clara	L	71-72	46%
Nov 28, 2021	113	@ California	L	62-67	34%
Dec 01, 2021	170	San Diego	W	73-68	66%
Dec 04, 2021	296	Cal St. Northridge	W	79-67	85%
Dec 08, 2021	67	@ San Francisco	L	65-74	22%
Dec 11, 2021	111	UC Irvine	W	68-67	52%
Dec 17, 2021	305	Cal Poly	W	74-61	85%
Dec 21, 2021	88	@ Utah	L	65-72	29%
Dec 23, 2021	129	@ Weber St.	L	72-76	39%
Dec 28, 2021	76	@ Boise St.	L	66-74	25%
Jan 01, 2022	306	Air Force	W	70-57	85%
Jan 05, 2022	42	@ San Diego St.	L	59-71	17%
Jan 08, 2022	156	Wyoming	W	73-69	64%
Jan 11, 2022	322	San Jose St.	W	81-67	88%
Jan 14, 2022	145	@ UNLV	L	66-69	41%
Jan 18, 2022	72	Utah St.	L	67-70	42%
Jan 21, 2022	63	@ Nevada	L	67-77	22%
Jan 25, 2022	240	@ New Mexico	W	69-66	60%
Jan 28, 2022	76	Boise St.	L	69-71	43%
Feb 01, 2022	322	@ San Jose St.	W	78-70	75%
Feb 04, 2022	63	Nevada	L	70-74	38%
Feb 11, 2022	51	@ Colorado St.	L	65-76	20%
Feb 16, 2022	145	UNLV	W	69-66	60%
Feb 19, 2022	42	San Diego St.	L	62-68	32%
Feb 22, 2022	306	@ Air Force	W	67-60	71%
Mar 01, 2022	240	New Mexico	W	72-63	77%
Mar 05, 2022	156	@ Wyoming	L	70-72	45%
Projected Record						16 - 14	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mountain West Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.3	1.0	1.4	1.0	0.5	0.1		4.3	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	0.9	2.5	2.6	0.9	0.2	0.0			7.3	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.3	1.7	3.7	2.8	0.9	0.0					9.5	3rd
4th									0.0	0.4	2.4	5.2	3.0	0.5	0.0						11.7	4th
5th							0.0	0.0	0.7	3.4	5.5	3.0	0.4	0.0							13.1	5th
6th							0.1	1.1	4.0	5.6	2.9	0.4	0.0								14.0	6th
7th					0.0	0.1	1.5	4.6	4.9	2.1	0.3										13.5	7th
8th					0.3	1.9	4.4	3.8	1.4	0.2											11.9	8th
9th			0.0	0.4	2.0	3.2	2.2	0.6	0.0	0.0											8.4	9th
10th		0.0	0.5	1.4	1.7	0.9	0.2	0.0													4.7	10th
11th	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0														1.8	11th

Total	0.1	0.4	1.1	2.4	4.1	6.1	8.3	10.2	11.0	11.7	11.4	10.4	8.2	6.2	4.4	2.4	1.2	0.5	0.1			Total

Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	99.9%	0.5		0.4	0.0
16-2	83.1%	1.0		0.8	0.3	0.0
15-3	58.4%	1.4		0.7	0.6	0.1
14-4	22.6%	1.0		0.2	0.5	0.2	0.0
13-5	5.1%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.4%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	4.3%	4.3		2.3	1.4	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		100.0%	60.6%	39.4%	4.8			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0									100.0%
17-1	0.5%		89.3%	43.8%	45.6%	7.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		81.0%
16-2	1.2%		71.0%	28.9%	42.0%	9.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.4		59.1%
15-3	2.4%		47.4%	20.7%	26.7%	10.4						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0			1.2		33.7%
14-4	4.4%		25.9%	13.5%	12.4%	11.3						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.3		14.3%
13-5	6.2%		13.9%	9.8%	4.1%	12.0									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0		5.4		4.6%
12-6	8.2%		6.4%	5.6%	0.8%	12.7											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	7.6		0.9%
11-7	10.4%		4.2%	3.9%	0.3%	13.2										0.0		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	10.0		0.3%
10-8	11.4%		2.1%	2.1%	0.1%	13.5												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	11.1		0.1%
9-9	11.7%		1.3%	1.3%		14.0													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	11.5
8-10	11.0%		0.6%	0.6%		14.9														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10.9
7-11	10.2%		0.3%	0.3%		15.4														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10.1
6-12	8.3%		0.2%	0.2%		15.5																0.0	0.0	8.2
5-13	6.1%		0.0%	0.0%		15.0																0.0		6.1
4-14	4.1%																							4.1
3-15	2.4%																							2.4
2-16	1.1%																							1.1
1-17	0.4%																							0.4
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		6.0%	3.7%	2.3%	11.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.6	1.0	1.5	0.9	0.4	0.3	0.1	94.0		2.4%