Preseason Rankings
Incarnate Word
Southland
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-13.5#345
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.7#324
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.9#334
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-7.6#348
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.8% 9.7% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 11.9% 32.1% 8.0%
.500 or above in Conference 38.2% 60.0% 33.9%
Conference Champion 5.4% 11.4% 4.2%
Last Place in Conference 22.8% 10.3% 25.3%
First Four4.0% 6.6% 3.4%
First Round2.4% 5.8% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Home) - 16.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 30 - 30 - 8
Quad 48 - 118 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 174   Texas St. L 57-67 16%    
  Nov 12, 2021 9   @ Baylor L 54-86 0.1%   
  Nov 20, 2021 21   Texas Tech L 52-79 1%    
  Nov 26, 2021 268   Southeast Missouri St. L 67-72 35%    
  Nov 27, 2021 204   Montana St. L 65-73 24%    
  Nov 28, 2021 307   Portland L 73-75 42%    
  Dec 04, 2021 167   @ Abilene Christian L 60-77 8%    
  Dec 11, 2021 312   Grambling St. L 68-70 43%    
  Dec 16, 2021 173   @ Rice L 65-81 9%    
  Dec 20, 2021 5   @ Purdue L 51-84 0.4%   
  Dec 28, 2021 7   @ Texas L 53-86 0.4%   
  Jan 15, 2022 342   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 67-71 39%    
  Jan 20, 2022 348   Houston Baptist W 79-74 66%    
  Jan 22, 2022 331   McNeese St. W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 27, 2022 338   @ Northwestern St. L 71-76 35%    
  Jan 29, 2022 325   @ SE Louisiana L 67-74 30%    
  Feb 03, 2022 230   Nicholls St. L 70-77 30%    
  Feb 05, 2022 298   New Orleans L 74-77 40%    
  Feb 10, 2022 230   @ Nicholls St. L 67-80 16%    
  Feb 12, 2022 298   @ New Orleans L 71-80 24%    
  Feb 17, 2022 338   Northwestern St. W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 19, 2022 325   SE Louisiana L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 24, 2022 348   @ Houston Baptist L 76-77 46%    
  Feb 26, 2022 331   @ McNeese St. L 68-73 34%    
  Mar 05, 2022 342   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 70-68 58%    
Projected Record 8 - 17 6 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.1 5.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 3.2 3.1 1.3 0.2 9.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 4.8 3.2 0.7 0.0 11.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.2 6.0 3.2 0.4 0.0 13.0 4th
5th 0.5 3.9 7.0 2.9 0.3 14.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.9 7.1 2.5 0.2 0.0 15.8 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 6.0 5.7 2.0 0.1 16.2 7th
8th 1.7 4.0 5.2 3.3 0.9 0.1 15.0 8th
Total 1.7 4.2 7.4 10.3 12.0 13.3 13.0 11.3 9.5 7.2 5.1 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
13-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
12-2 86.8% 1.3    0.9 0.3 0.0
11-3 57.4% 1.7    0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
10-4 24.1% 1.2    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0
9-5 5.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 5.4% 5.4 3.0 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.1% 55.8% 55.8% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-1 0.6% 49.4% 49.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
12-2 1.5% 36.9% 36.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9
11-3 3.0% 27.0% 27.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2
10-4 5.1% 19.1% 19.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.1
9-5 7.2% 11.6% 11.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8 6.3
8-6 9.5% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6 8.9
7-7 11.3% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.4 10.9
6-8 13.0% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 12.8
5-9 13.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.2
4-10 12.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.0
3-11 10.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.3
2-12 7.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.3
1-13 4.2% 4.2
0-14 1.7% 1.7
Total 100% 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 4.5 95.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%