Preseason Rankings
Iowa
Big Ten
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.2#39
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.0#90
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.9#16
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#86
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.2% 2.3% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 5.2% 5.4% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 13.6% 14.0% 1.0%
Top 6 Seed 23.4% 24.2% 3.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 47.0% 48.2% 14.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 44.7% 45.9% 13.6%
Average Seed 6.5 6.5 8.4
.500 or above 76.7% 78.1% 37.2%
.500 or above in Conference 48.1% 49.2% 18.2%
Conference Champion 4.5% 4.7% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 7.5% 6.9% 21.8%
First Four3.3% 3.3% 2.1%
First Round45.5% 46.7% 13.2%
Second Round29.3% 30.2% 6.6%
Sweet Sixteen14.3% 14.7% 1.9%
Elite Eight6.8% 7.0% 0.6%
Final Four3.1% 3.2% 0.2%
Championship Game1.4% 1.4% 0.2%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 0.1%

Next Game: Longwood (Home) - 96.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 10
Quad 24 - 38 - 12
Quad 34 - 112 - 13
Quad 48 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 249   Longwood W 81-62 96%    
  Nov 12, 2021 233   UMKC W 78-60 95%    
  Nov 16, 2021 339   NC Central W 86-59 99%    
  Nov 18, 2021 351   Alabama St. W 91-60 99.5%   
  Nov 22, 2021 284   Western Michigan W 85-64 96%    
  Nov 26, 2021 220   Portland St. W 86-69 93%    
  Nov 29, 2021 29   @ Virginia L 62-66 36%    
  Dec 03, 2021 5   @ Purdue L 70-79 24%    
  Dec 06, 2021 8   Illinois L 79-81 44%    
  Dec 09, 2021 127   @ Iowa St. W 81-76 67%    
  Dec 18, 2021 72   Utah St. W 78-74 61%    
  Dec 21, 2021 325   SE Louisiana W 89-65 97%    
  Dec 29, 2021 274   Western Illinois W 92-72 95%    
  Jan 03, 2022 16   Maryland W 72-71 50%    
  Jan 06, 2022 43   @ Wisconsin L 69-72 42%    
  Jan 13, 2022 30   Indiana W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 16, 2022 106   @ Minnesota W 80-76 61%    
  Jan 19, 2022 50   @ Rutgers L 73-75 44%    
  Jan 22, 2022 53   Penn St. W 80-75 65%    
  Jan 27, 2022 5   Purdue L 73-76 42%    
  Jan 31, 2022 53   @ Penn St. L 77-78 47%    
  Feb 03, 2022 12   @ Ohio St. L 73-80 29%    
  Feb 06, 2022 106   Minnesota W 83-73 77%    
  Feb 10, 2022 16   @ Maryland L 69-75 33%    
  Feb 13, 2022 75   Nebraska W 84-77 70%    
  Feb 17, 2022 2   Michigan L 72-76 37%    
  Feb 22, 2022 24   Michigan St. W 77-76 53%    
  Feb 25, 2022 75   @ Nebraska W 81-80 53%    
  Feb 28, 2022 58   Northwestern W 78-73 65%    
  Mar 03, 2022 2   @ Michigan L 69-79 21%    
  Mar 06, 2022 8   @ Illinois L 76-84 27%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 4.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.4 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 5.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.3 2.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 7.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.0 1.3 0.1 0.0 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.9 2.0 0.2 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.9 2.3 0.4 0.0 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.8 2.7 0.5 0.0 8.6 9th
10th 0.2 1.3 3.4 3.0 0.7 0.0 8.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.1 2.9 0.8 0.0 8.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.7 2.4 0.8 0.1 7.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.2 1.7 0.6 0.0 6.3 13th
14th 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.5 14th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.0 4.4 6.1 7.5 8.8 9.8 9.7 9.5 9.0 7.8 6.7 5.5 4.0 2.6 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 93.8% 0.8    0.7 0.1 0.0
17-3 74.1% 1.2    0.8 0.3 0.0
16-4 44.4% 1.2    0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 18.7% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.5% 4.5 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 64.1% 35.9% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 42.1% 57.9% 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.8% 100.0% 35.4% 64.6% 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.6% 100.0% 27.2% 72.8% 1.9 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.6% 100.0% 21.6% 78.4% 2.6 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.0% 100.0% 16.1% 83.9% 3.5 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 5.5% 99.7% 10.3% 89.4% 4.7 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-7 6.7% 98.7% 7.3% 91.4% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.5%
12-8 7.8% 94.5% 5.5% 89.0% 7.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 94.2%
11-9 9.0% 84.1% 2.7% 81.4% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.4 83.6%
10-10 9.5% 63.6% 1.7% 61.9% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.5 63.0%
9-11 9.7% 32.0% 0.8% 31.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.6 31.4%
8-12 9.8% 10.3% 0.5% 9.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.8 9.9%
7-13 8.8% 2.7% 0.3% 2.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.6 2.4%
6-14 7.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 0.2%
5-15 6.1% 6.1
4-16 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 4.4
3-17 3.0% 3.0
2-18 1.7% 1.7
1-19 0.7% 0.7
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 47.0% 4.2% 42.8% 6.5 2.2 3.0 4.1 4.3 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.0 4.2 3.6 3.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 53.0 44.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 76.0 24.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0