IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Louisiana
Sun Belt
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.0	#171
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	75.3	#56
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.0	#148

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.9	#202

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	12.2%	17.5%	7.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.3%	0.7%	0.1%
Average Seed	13.6	13.2	14.3

.500 or above	61.6%	79.0%	47.5%
.500 or above in Conference	70.3%	81.6%	61.3%
Conference Champion	15.2%	22.0%	9.7%
Last Place in Conference	4.3%	1.8%	6.3%

First Four	0.7%	0.6%	0.7%
First Round	11.9%	17.2%	7.6%
Second Round	1.7%	2.8%	0.8%
Sweet Sixteen	0.4%	0.7%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Away) - 44.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 5
Quad 3	4 - 5	4 - 10
Quad 4	11 - 3	15 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 12, 2021	195	@ Southern Miss	L	73-74	45%
Nov 21, 2021	30	@ Indiana	L	65-80	9%
Nov 23, 2021	118	@ Marshall	L	79-86	29%
Nov 27, 2021	262	Jackson St.	W	76-68	76%
Dec 03, 2021	298	New Orleans	W	88-78	81%
Dec 08, 2021	331	McNeese St.	W	85-71	88%
Dec 11, 2021	93	@ Louisiana Tech	L	72-81	23%
Dec 14, 2021	13	@ Houston	L	62-80	7%
Dec 30, 2021	182	@ Appalachian St.	L	70-72	43%
Jan 01, 2022	190	@ Coastal Carolina	L	78-80	44%
Jan 06, 2022	194	Arkansas St.	W	79-74	64%
Jan 08, 2022	277	Arkansas Little Rock	W	79-70	77%
Jan 13, 2022	224	@ Texas Arlington	W	76-75	51%
Jan 15, 2022	174	@ Texas St.	L	66-69	40%
Jan 20, 2022	214	South Alabama	W	78-72	67%
Jan 22, 2022	243	Troy	W	79-71	73%
Jan 27, 2022	121	Georgia St.	L	80-81	50%
Jan 29, 2022	245	Georgia Southern	W	77-69	72%
Feb 03, 2022	277	@ Arkansas Little Rock	W	76-73	60%
Feb 05, 2022	194	@ Arkansas St.	L	76-77	45%
Feb 10, 2022	174	Texas St.	W	69-66	60%
Feb 12, 2022	224	Texas Arlington	W	79-73	69%
Feb 17, 2022	269	@ Louisiana Monroe	W	75-72	59%
Feb 19, 2022	269	Louisiana Monroe	W	78-69	76%
Feb 24, 2022	245	@ Georgia Southern	W	74-72	55%
Feb 26, 2022	121	@ Georgia St.	L	77-83	32%
Projected Record						14 - 12	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Sun Belt Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	1.4	3.3	4.0	3.5	2.0	0.6		15.2	1st
2nd											0.0	0.5	2.5	4.5	3.7	1.7	0.3	0.0			13.3	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.5	3.0	4.6	2.9	0.7	0.1					11.8	3rd
4th									0.0	0.5	2.8	4.7	2.5	0.4	0.0						10.9	4th
5th								0.0	0.3	2.4	4.5	2.2	0.3	0.0							9.7	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	1.7	4.0	2.3	0.3	0.0								8.6	6th
7th						0.0	0.1	1.4	3.5	2.3	0.4	0.0									7.7	7th
8th					0.0	0.1	0.9	3.0	2.2	0.3	0.0										6.5	8th
9th				0.0	0.1	0.7	2.3	2.0	0.4	0.0											5.5	9th
10th				0.1	0.7	1.7	1.7	0.4	0.0												4.6	10th
11th		0.0	0.2	0.6	1.3	1.2	0.3	0.0													3.7	11th
12th	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.8	0.5	0.2	0.0														2.5	12th

Total	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.5	2.6	3.8	5.4	7.0	8.2	9.6	10.6	10.7	10.3	9.2	7.7	5.8	3.8	2.0	0.6			Total

Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.6		0.6
17-1	99.4%	2.0		2.0	0.1
16-2	91.7%	3.5		2.9	0.6	0.0
15-3	69.4%	4.0		2.7	1.3	0.1	0.0
14-4	42.5%	3.3		1.4	1.4	0.4	0.0	0.0
13-5	15.3%	1.4		0.3	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0
12-6	3.0%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	15.2%	15.2		10.0	4.0	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.6%		68.4%	57.2%	11.2%	9.6		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.2		26.2%
17-1	2.0%		60.1%	54.7%	5.4%	11.5			0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0		0.8		11.9%
16-2	3.8%		43.4%	41.7%	1.8%	12.7							0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0	2.2		3.0%
15-3	5.8%		33.5%	32.9%	0.6%	13.3											0.0	0.0	0.3	0.8	0.6	0.1	0.0	3.9		0.9%
14-4	7.7%		23.9%	23.9%	0.0%	13.8										0.0		0.0	0.1	0.6	0.7	0.4	0.0	5.8		0.0%
13-5	9.2%		19.1%	19.1%		14.3												0.0	0.0	0.3	0.7	0.6	0.1	7.4
12-6	10.3%		12.7%	12.7%		14.6													0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.2	9.0
11-7	10.7%		8.5%	8.5%		15.1													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.3	9.8
10-8	10.6%		5.3%	5.3%		15.3														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	10.0
9-9	9.6%		3.2%	3.2%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	9.3
8-10	8.2%		1.8%	1.8%		15.9																0.0	0.1	8.0
7-11	7.0%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0															0.0		0.1	6.9
6-12	5.4%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	5.3
5-13	3.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	3.8
4-14	2.6%																							2.6
3-15	1.5%																							1.5
2-16	0.8%																							0.8
1-17	0.3%																							0.3
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		12.2%	11.9%	0.3%	13.6		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	1.3	2.9	3.1	2.6	1.3	87.8		0.3%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	3.8		18.8		62.5	18.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	5.4				30.0		70.0
Lose Out	0.0%