Preseason Rankings
Maryland Baltimore Co.
America East
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#229
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.8#194
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#259
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#200
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.2% 17.3% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.1 15.0
.500 or above 48.3% 77.5% 42.4%
.500 or above in Conference 62.4% 82.3% 58.4%
Conference Champion 9.8% 20.0% 7.8%
Last Place in Conference 5.6% 1.4% 6.4%
First Four1.9% 1.7% 2.0%
First Round8.3% 16.4% 6.7%
Second Round0.6% 1.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Massachusetts (Away) - 16.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 63 - 10
Quad 412 - 615 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 119   @ Massachusetts L 70-80 17%    
  Nov 19, 2021 309   Western Carolina W 77-72 66%    
  Nov 20, 2021 249   @ Longwood L 65-67 44%    
  Nov 23, 2021 259   American W 71-66 66%    
  Nov 27, 2021 117   @ Pittsburgh L 66-76 19%    
  Dec 01, 2021 315   Columbia W 74-66 74%    
  Dec 05, 2021 181   @ Delaware L 66-72 31%    
  Dec 08, 2021 86   @ Georgetown L 66-79 14%    
  Dec 13, 2021 168   @ Princeton L 68-75 29%    
  Dec 16, 2021 149   UNC Greensboro L 69-71 43%    
  Dec 22, 2021 242   @ Mount St. Mary's L 62-64 43%    
  Dec 29, 2021 264   Radford W 68-63 65%    
  Jan 02, 2022 241   @ New Hampshire L 67-69 43%    
  Jan 05, 2022 188   @ Stony Brook L 65-71 33%    
  Jan 08, 2022 258   Umass Lowell W 75-70 65%    
  Jan 12, 2022 293   @ NJIT W 70-69 51%    
  Jan 15, 2022 116   Vermont L 66-70 36%    
  Jan 19, 2022 244   Albany W 73-69 62%    
  Jan 22, 2022 337   @ Maine W 66-61 66%    
  Jan 26, 2022 293   NJIT W 73-67 70%    
  Jan 29, 2022 327   @ Binghamton W 71-68 60%    
  Feb 02, 2022 244   @ Albany L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 05, 2022 241   New Hampshire W 70-66 62%    
  Feb 09, 2022 213   Hartford W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 12, 2022 258   @ Umass Lowell L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 16, 2022 188   Stony Brook W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 19, 2022 116   @ Vermont L 63-73 20%    
  Feb 23, 2022 213   @ Hartford L 66-70 38%    
  Feb 26, 2022 337   Maine W 69-58 81%    
  Mar 01, 2022 327   Binghamton W 74-65 77%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.2 2.8 2.2 1.1 0.3 9.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 4.3 3.3 1.3 0.2 13.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.2 4.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.8 4.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 13.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.1 3.7 0.8 0.0 12.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.6 2.8 0.5 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 2.6 4.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 3.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.0 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.3 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.5 5.2 6.8 8.5 9.8 10.5 10.7 10.3 9.4 7.8 5.9 4.1 2.4 1.1 0.3 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.0 0.1
16-2 90.3% 2.2    1.8 0.3 0.0
15-3 67.2% 2.8    1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-4 36.9% 2.2    1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-5 13.6% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.8% 9.8 6.2 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 67.0% 58.8% 8.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 19.8%
17-1 1.1% 55.9% 54.7% 1.3% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 2.8%
16-2 2.4% 41.4% 41.0% 0.4% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.4 0.7%
15-3 4.1% 32.8% 32.7% 0.1% 14.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 2.8 0.1%
14-4 5.9% 24.0% 24.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 4.5
13-5 7.8% 17.3% 17.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 6.4
12-6 9.4% 11.3% 11.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 8.3
11-7 10.3% 8.4% 8.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 9.5
10-8 10.7% 5.9% 5.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 10.0
9-9 10.5% 3.7% 3.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 10.1
8-10 9.8% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.6
7-11 8.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 8.4
6-12 6.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.8
5-13 5.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.2
4-14 3.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.5
3-15 2.2% 2.2
2-16 1.1% 1.1
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 9.2% 9.2% 0.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 2.5 3.3 90.8 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.1 21.4 25.0 3.6 25.0 25.0
Lose Out 0.0%