Preseason Rankings
Navy
Patriot League
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#184
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.8#266
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#205
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#174
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.7% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.5% 32.3% 14.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 1.9% 0.1%
Average Seed 14.3 13.0 14.4
.500 or above 62.7% 91.6% 60.7%
.500 or above in Conference 78.1% 94.5% 77.0%
Conference Champion 18.6% 37.6% 17.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 0.4% 3.1%
First Four1.9% 1.4% 1.9%
First Round14.6% 31.8% 13.5%
Second Round1.5% 6.3% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 1.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia (Away) - 6.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 21 - 5
Quad 33 - 43 - 9
Quad 413 - 516 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 29   @ Virginia L 50-66 6%    
  Nov 12, 2021 34   Virginia Tech L 62-72 19%    
  Nov 15, 2021 27   @ Louisville L 59-75 8%    
  Nov 20, 2021 264   Radford W 67-62 66%    
  Nov 21, 2021 109   @ Furman L 66-74 24%    
  Nov 27, 2021 242   @ Mount St. Mary's W 62-61 52%    
  Dec 01, 2021 295   William & Mary W 73-64 78%    
  Dec 07, 2021 169   @ George Mason L 67-71 37%    
  Dec 12, 2021 246   @ Marist W 65-64 53%    
  Dec 22, 2021 239   Towson W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 01, 2022 321   @ Holy Cross W 74-69 67%    
  Jan 04, 2022 197   Boston University W 70-66 62%    
  Jan 07, 2022 294   Bucknell W 78-69 77%    
  Jan 10, 2022 292   @ Lafayette W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 13, 2022 105   Colgate L 74-77 41%    
  Jan 16, 2022 197   @ Boston University L 67-69 43%    
  Jan 19, 2022 297   Lehigh W 76-67 78%    
  Jan 22, 2022 257   Army W 73-66 72%    
  Jan 26, 2022 294   @ Bucknell W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 29, 2022 259   American W 71-64 72%    
  Feb 02, 2022 297   @ Lehigh W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 05, 2022 276   @ Loyola Maryland W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 07, 2022 292   Lafayette W 76-67 76%    
  Feb 12, 2022 257   @ Army W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 16, 2022 259   @ American W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 19, 2022 321   Holy Cross W 77-66 81%    
  Feb 23, 2022 276   Loyola Maryland W 73-65 74%    
  Feb 26, 2022 105   @ Colgate L 71-80 25%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.3 4.8 4.8 2.9 0.9 18.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 4.0 6.1 5.6 2.9 0.7 20.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.0 5.6 3.1 0.7 0.1 16.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.7 4.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.0 2.8 0.7 0.1 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.5 3.9 5.5 6.9 8.4 9.8 10.9 11.3 10.8 9.6 7.7 5.5 2.9 0.9 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 100.0% 2.9    2.7 0.2
16-2 87.5% 4.8    3.8 1.0 0.0
15-3 61.8% 4.8    3.1 1.6 0.1
14-4 34.3% 3.3    1.6 1.4 0.3 0.0
13-5 13.4% 1.4    0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.6% 18.6 12.6 4.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 70.3% 65.6% 4.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 13.7%
17-1 2.9% 52.5% 50.7% 1.8% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 3.6%
16-2 5.5% 43.1% 42.4% 0.6% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.0 3.1 1.1%
15-3 7.7% 33.7% 33.6% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.2 5.1 0.1%
14-4 9.6% 26.0% 26.0% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.4 7.1 0.0%
13-5 10.8% 18.7% 18.6% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 8.8 0.0%
12-6 11.3% 13.1% 13.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 9.9
11-7 10.9% 8.6% 8.6% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 10.0
10-8 9.8% 6.4% 6.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 9.2
9-9 8.4% 4.4% 4.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 8.1
8-10 6.9% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 6.7
7-11 5.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 5.4
6-12 3.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.9
5-13 2.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.5
4-14 1.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.6
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.5% 15.3% 0.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.5 3.7 4.0 3.6 84.5 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%