Preseason Rankings
Nevada
Mountain West
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.7#63
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.4#81
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#45
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#83
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.9% 2.1% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 5.5% 5.9% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 9.8% 10.6% 1.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.2% 38.4% 12.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 23.2% 25.0% 5.8%
Average Seed 8.6 8.6 10.7
.500 or above 86.3% 88.7% 59.8%
.500 or above in Conference 85.1% 86.8% 66.5%
Conference Champion 20.2% 21.4% 6.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 1.6%
First Four4.9% 5.2% 2.3%
First Round33.7% 35.8% 10.9%
Second Round17.5% 18.8% 4.1%
Sweet Sixteen7.4% 7.9% 1.3%
Elite Eight3.2% 3.4% 0.5%
Final Four1.3% 1.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Home) - 91.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 24 - 35 - 7
Quad 38 - 313 - 10
Quad 48 - 122 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 219   Eastern Washington W 88-73 92%    
  Nov 12, 2021 170   San Diego W 83-71 86%    
  Nov 16, 2021 124   @ Santa Clara W 79-76 59%    
  Nov 18, 2021 67   @ San Francisco L 74-77 41%    
  Nov 22, 2021 99   South Dakota St. W 83-80 61%    
  Nov 23, 2021 169   George Mason W 78-69 77%    
  Nov 24, 2021 95   Washington W 80-77 60%    
  Nov 30, 2021 147   Pepperdine W 85-75 80%    
  Dec 04, 2021 123   @ North Texas W 69-66 59%    
  Dec 07, 2021 224   @ Texas Arlington W 79-70 77%    
  Dec 18, 2021 82   Loyola Marymount W 76-71 66%    
  Dec 21, 2021 142   Grand Canyon W 77-67 79%    
  Dec 29, 2021 322   @ San Jose St. W 89-74 89%    
  Jan 01, 2022 240   New Mexico W 81-65 90%    
  Jan 04, 2022 156   Wyoming W 83-72 81%    
  Jan 08, 2022 42   @ San Diego St. L 68-73 34%    
  Jan 12, 2022 76   Boise St. W 78-73 64%    
  Jan 15, 2022 306   @ Air Force W 76-62 86%    
  Jan 21, 2022 138   Fresno St. W 77-67 78%    
  Jan 25, 2022 51   @ Colorado St. L 75-79 38%    
  Jan 29, 2022 72   Utah St. W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 01, 2022 145   @ UNLV W 75-71 62%    
  Feb 04, 2022 138   @ Fresno St. W 74-70 62%    
  Feb 08, 2022 51   Colorado St. W 78-76 56%    
  Feb 11, 2022 72   @ Utah St. L 74-76 44%    
  Feb 16, 2022 322   San Jose St. W 92-71 95%    
  Feb 22, 2022 145   UNLV W 78-68 78%    
  Feb 26, 2022 156   @ Wyoming W 80-75 66%    
  Mar 01, 2022 76   @ Boise St. L 75-76 46%    
  Mar 05, 2022 42   San Diego St. W 71-70 52%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 3.1 5.5 5.9 3.6 1.3 20.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.1 6.6 3.7 0.6 17.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.0 5.5 1.7 0.1 15.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.8 4.1 0.8 0.0 13.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.7 2.9 0.5 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.4 0.6 0.1 3.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.5 3.9 5.7 7.6 9.6 11.3 12.3 12.2 11.4 9.3 6.6 3.6 1.3 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
17-1 100.0% 3.6    3.4 0.2
16-2 90.3% 5.9    4.6 1.3 0.0
15-3 58.8% 5.5    3.0 2.2 0.3 0.0
14-4 27.1% 3.1    0.9 1.4 0.7 0.1
13-5 6.0% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.2% 20.2 13.4 5.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.3% 99.7% 65.7% 33.9% 2.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0%
17-1 3.6% 97.6% 53.5% 44.0% 4.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 94.7%
16-2 6.6% 92.2% 43.8% 48.4% 6.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.5 86.2%
15-3 9.3% 81.3% 34.4% 46.9% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.7 71.5%
14-4 11.4% 63.5% 25.6% 37.9% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.1 51.0%
13-5 12.2% 42.4% 17.8% 24.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 7.0 29.9%
12-6 12.3% 23.8% 11.2% 12.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.4 14.2%
11-7 11.3% 12.8% 7.5% 5.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.9 5.7%
10-8 9.6% 6.1% 4.3% 1.8% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.0 1.9%
9-9 7.6% 2.9% 2.5% 0.4% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 0.4%
8-10 5.7% 2.0% 1.9% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 0.0%
7-11 3.9% 1.1% 1.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9
6-12 2.5% 0.5% 0.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
5-13 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-14 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 36.2% 17.0% 19.2% 8.6 0.8 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.6 3.6 4.2 6.1 5.5 1.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 63.8 23.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.7 42.6 43.3 10.9 3.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.0 29.6 48.9 16.8 4.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 2.2 23.3 41.4 29.3 6.0