Preseason Rankings
New Mexico
Mountain West
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#240
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.0#237
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#257
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#229
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.2% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.1 13.4
.500 or above 17.7% 30.2% 8.2%
.500 or above in Conference 17.5% 26.0% 10.9%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 18.0% 10.9% 23.5%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.6% 1.1% 0.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Atlantic (Home) - 43.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 51 - 10
Quad 32 - 63 - 16
Quad 47 - 411 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 159   Florida Atlantic L 68-70 43%    
  Nov 13, 2021 47   @ Colorado L 58-76 6%    
  Nov 15, 2021 312   Grambling St. W 74-67 73%    
  Nov 20, 2021 204   Montana St. W 71-70 52%    
  Nov 25, 2021 74   UAB L 63-75 16%    
  Nov 30, 2021 102   @ New Mexico St. L 60-72 15%    
  Dec 06, 2021 102   New Mexico St. L 63-69 30%    
  Dec 09, 2021 344   Denver W 80-68 83%    
  Dec 12, 2021 163   UTEP L 67-69 45%    
  Dec 19, 2021 62   SMU L 68-78 21%    
  Dec 21, 2021 291   Norfolk St. W 71-65 68%    
  Dec 28, 2021 51   Colorado St. L 66-77 19%    
  Jan 01, 2022 63   @ Nevada L 65-81 10%    
  Jan 08, 2022 72   Utah St. L 65-74 24%    
  Jan 11, 2022 145   @ UNLV L 64-73 23%    
  Jan 15, 2022 42   San Diego St. L 60-72 16%    
  Jan 19, 2022 51   @ Colorado St. L 63-80 9%    
  Jan 22, 2022 156   @ Wyoming L 69-77 26%    
  Jan 25, 2022 138   Fresno St. L 66-69 40%    
  Jan 28, 2022 322   San Jose St. W 80-72 74%    
  Jan 31, 2022 42   @ San Diego St. L 57-75 7%    
  Feb 05, 2022 306   @ Air Force W 65-64 52%    
  Feb 08, 2022 76   Boise St. L 67-75 25%    
  Feb 15, 2022 156   Wyoming L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 19, 2022 322   @ San Jose St. W 77-75 57%    
  Feb 22, 2022 72   @ Utah St. L 62-77 12%    
  Feb 26, 2022 306   Air Force W 68-61 70%    
  Mar 01, 2022 138   @ Fresno St. L 63-72 23%    
  Mar 05, 2022 145   UNLV L 67-70 41%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.2 0.8 0.1 5.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.1 3.0 0.9 0.1 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.5 3.8 1.2 0.1 11.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.7 6.5 4.5 1.2 0.1 16.6 8th
9th 0.1 2.2 6.5 7.6 3.9 0.9 0.1 21.2 9th
10th 0.5 3.8 6.8 5.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 18.3 10th
11th 1.4 3.6 3.7 2.0 0.5 0.1 11.2 11th
Total 1.4 4.1 7.5 11.0 12.8 13.4 12.7 10.8 8.7 6.6 4.5 3.0 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 77.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 64.1% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 34.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 35.0% 65.0% 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.0% 65.5% 32.8% 32.8% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 48.7%
16-2 0.0% 58.1% 32.4% 25.7% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.0%
15-3 0.2% 39.7% 24.7% 15.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 19.9%
14-4 0.5% 21.6% 11.1% 10.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 11.8%
13-5 0.9% 9.2% 6.4% 2.8% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.0%
12-6 1.8% 5.2% 4.7% 0.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.5%
11-7 3.0% 2.9% 2.7% 0.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.2%
10-8 4.5% 1.9% 1.9% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 0.1%
9-9 6.6% 0.7% 0.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.5
8-10 8.7% 0.4% 0.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7
7-11 10.8% 0.1% 0.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8
6-12 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.7
5-13 13.4% 13.4
4-14 12.8% 12.8
3-15 11.0% 11.0
2-16 7.5% 7.5
1-17 4.1% 4.1
0-18 1.4% 1.4
Total 100% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.3 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%