IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
San Diego St.
Mountain West
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+11.0	#42
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.9	#305
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+4.1	#62

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+6.9	#22

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
#1 Seed	1.4%	1.6%	0.1%
Top 2 Seed	3.5%	4.0%	0.3%
Top 4 Seed	9.5%	10.6%	1.2%
Top 6 Seed	16.3%	18.1%	3.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	48.5%	52.0%	22.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	30.1%	33.3%	10.1%
Average Seed	8.1	7.9	10.0

.500 or above	93.5%	95.6%	77.1%
.500 or above in Conference	92.7%	94.2%	81.3%
Conference Champion	33.5%	35.9%	15.5%
Last Place in Conference	0.1%	0.1%	0.5%

First Four	4.5%	4.8%	2.9%
First Round	46.4%	49.8%	21.0%
Second Round	27.0%	29.4%	9.3%
Sweet Sixteen	12.4%	13.6%	3.5%
Elite Eight	5.6%	6.1%	1.3%
Final Four	2.5%	2.8%	0.5%
Championship Game	1.1%	1.2%	0.2%
National Champion	0.5%	0.5%	0.1%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Home) - 88.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 2	1 - 2
Quad 1b	1 - 2	2 - 4
Quad 2	4 - 2	6 - 7
Quad 3	7 - 2	12 - 8
Quad 4	9 - 0	22 - 9

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	148	UC Riverside	W	72-59	88%
Nov 12, 2021	38	@ BYU	L	67-70	39%
Nov 18, 2021	61	Arizona St.	W	75-70	67%
Nov 20, 2021	224	Texas Arlington	W	76-59	93%
Nov 25, 2021	86	Georgetown	W	72-67	66%
Nov 30, 2021	271	Long Beach St.	W	83-63	95%
Dec 04, 2021	2	@ Michigan	L	61-71	19%
Dec 08, 2021	231	Cal St. Fullerton	W	82-64	93%
Dec 17, 2021	49	St. Mary's	W	63-62	53%
Dec 22, 2021	263	UC San Diego	W	80-60	94%
Jan 01, 2022	145	@ UNLV	W	69-63	69%
Jan 05, 2022	138	Fresno St.	W	71-59	83%
Jan 08, 2022	63	Nevada	W	73-68	66%
Jan 11, 2022	156	@ Wyoming	W	74-67	73%
Jan 15, 2022	240	@ New Mexico	W	72-60	84%
Jan 18, 2022	145	UNLV	W	72-60	84%
Jan 22, 2022	76	Boise St.	W	72-65	71%
Jan 26, 2022	72	@ Utah St.	W	68-67	51%
Jan 31, 2022	240	New Mexico	W	75-57	93%
Feb 04, 2022	51	@ Colorado St.	L	68-70	45%
Feb 09, 2022	322	@ San Jose St.	W	82-64	92%
Feb 12, 2022	306	Air Force	W	74-52	96%
Feb 15, 2022	72	Utah St.	W	70-64	69%
Feb 19, 2022	138	@ Fresno St.	W	68-62	68%
Feb 22, 2022	76	@ Boise St.	W	69-68	53%
Feb 25, 2022	322	San Jose St.	W	85-61	97%
Mar 01, 2022	51	Colorado St.	W	71-67	64%
Mar 05, 2022	63	@ Nevada	L	70-71	48%
Projected Record						20 - 8	13 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mountain West Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.1	0.8	4.0	8.0	9.9	7.5	3.1		33.5	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	1.6	5.6	7.7	4.5	1.1				20.6	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.2	1.7	5.4	5.4	1.9	0.1					14.7	3rd
4th									0.0	0.2	1.6	4.5	3.7	0.9	0.0						11.0	4th
5th								0.0	0.2	1.4	3.4	2.4	0.5	0.0							7.9	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	1.2	2.4	1.5	0.2	0.0								5.5	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	0.8	1.5	0.9	0.1	0.0									3.5	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	0.5	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0										1.9	8th
9th				0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0												0.9	9th
10th			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0													0.3	10th
11th		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0																0.0	11th

Total		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.1	1.9	3.4	4.9	6.8	9.0	11.2	12.8	13.6	12.6	11.1	7.5	3.1			Total

Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	3.1		3.1
17-1	100.0%	7.5		7.1	0.4
16-2	89.8%	9.9		7.7	2.2	0.0
15-3	63.5%	8.0		4.4	3.1	0.5	0.0
14-4	29.3%	4.0		1.2	1.9	0.8	0.1
13-5	6.5%	0.8		0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
12-6	0.6%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	33.5%	33.5		23.8	7.8	1.6	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	3.1%		99.3%	69.8%	29.6%	2.9		0.9	0.8	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		97.8%
17-1	7.5%		97.6%	59.1%	38.5%	4.6		0.5	1.0	1.3	1.4	1.0	0.8	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0				0.2		94.1%
16-2	11.1%		92.3%	48.4%	44.0%	6.7		0.1	0.3	0.7	1.2	1.4	1.4	1.3	1.1	1.0	0.8	0.7	0.3	0.0	0.0			0.8		85.1%
15-3	12.6%		78.7%	37.1%	41.6%	8.6		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.9	1.1	1.3	1.5	1.6	1.5	0.8	0.1	0.0			2.7		66.2%
14-4	13.6%		60.3%	29.1%	31.2%	10.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.7	1.1	1.6	2.0	1.6	0.3	0.0			5.4		44.0%
13-5	12.8%		39.5%	20.1%	19.5%	10.9					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.9	1.5	1.5	0.4	0.1	0.0		7.7		24.4%
12-6	11.2%		23.4%	13.4%	10.0%	11.5						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0		8.6		11.5%
11-7	9.0%		13.7%	10.3%	3.4%	12.1								0.0		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	7.8		3.8%
10-8	6.8%		7.1%	6.0%	1.1%	12.6											0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	6.3		1.2%
9-9	4.9%		4.1%	4.0%	0.1%	13.2												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.7		0.1%
8-10	3.4%		2.6%	2.5%	0.1%	14.0											0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.3		0.1%
7-11	1.9%		1.6%	1.6%		14.8														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.9
6-12	1.1%		0.7%	0.7%		15.4															0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0
5-13	0.6%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	0.6
4-14	0.2%																							0.2
3-15	0.1%																							0.1
2-16	0.0%																							0.0
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18

Total	100%		48.5%	26.3%	22.2%	8.1		1.4	2.1	2.6	3.4	3.3	3.5	3.6	3.7	4.4	5.4	6.8	6.1	1.7	0.4	0.1	0.0	51.5		30.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.4%	100.0%	1.4	61.5	33.4	5.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	100.0%	1.8	39.9	46.0	11.7	2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%	100.0%	1.8	49.1	27.8	18.9	4.1