Preseason Rankings
UNLV
Mountain West
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#145
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.8#292
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#130
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#171
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.1% 7.4% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.8% 3.5% 0.3%
Average Seed 10.8 10.7 12.5
.500 or above 47.5% 55.1% 20.9%
.500 or above in Conference 51.2% 56.8% 31.8%
Conference Champion 3.5% 4.2% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 2.7% 8.6%
First Four1.1% 1.3% 0.2%
First Round5.5% 6.7% 1.4%
Second Round1.9% 2.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.7% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gardner-Webb (Home) - 77.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 31 - 6
Quad 22 - 42 - 10
Quad 34 - 46 - 14
Quad 49 - 215 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 225   Gardner-Webb W 73-65 78%    
  Nov 13, 2021 113   California W 66-65 53%    
  Nov 15, 2021 130   North Dakota St. W 68-66 57%    
  Nov 20, 2021 2   @ Michigan L 59-79 5%    
  Nov 27, 2021 3   UCLA L 61-74 14%    
  Dec 01, 2021 62   @ SMU L 68-78 20%    
  Dec 04, 2021 67   @ San Francisco L 65-75 21%    
  Dec 08, 2021 179   Seattle W 74-69 67%    
  Dec 11, 2021 213   Hartford W 71-64 73%    
  Dec 15, 2021 326   Nebraska Omaha W 81-66 89%    
  Dec 22, 2021 170   San Diego W 74-69 64%    
  Jan 01, 2022 42   San Diego St. L 63-69 31%    
  Jan 05, 2022 322   @ San Jose St. W 80-72 74%    
  Jan 08, 2022 306   @ Air Force W 69-62 70%    
  Jan 11, 2022 240   New Mexico W 73-64 77%    
  Jan 14, 2022 138   Fresno St. W 69-66 59%    
  Jan 18, 2022 42   @ San Diego St. L 60-72 16%    
  Jan 22, 2022 322   San Jose St. W 83-69 87%    
  Jan 28, 2022 51   @ Colorado St. L 66-77 19%    
  Feb 01, 2022 63   Nevada L 71-75 38%    
  Feb 05, 2022 72   @ Utah St. L 65-74 24%    
  Feb 08, 2022 306   Air Force W 72-59 84%    
  Feb 11, 2022 76   @ Boise St. L 67-75 25%    
  Feb 16, 2022 138   @ Fresno St. L 66-69 40%    
  Feb 19, 2022 51   Colorado St. L 69-74 35%    
  Feb 22, 2022 63   @ Nevada L 68-78 22%    
  Feb 26, 2022 76   Boise St. L 70-72 42%    
  Mar 02, 2022 156   Wyoming W 75-71 63%    
  Mar 05, 2022 240   @ New Mexico W 70-67 59%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 3.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.2 1.8 0.7 0.1 5.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.5 2.3 0.5 0.0 8.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.5 2.7 0.4 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.4 5.4 2.7 0.3 0.0 12.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.5 5.7 2.8 0.3 0.0 14.5 6th
7th 0.2 1.8 5.1 5.6 2.1 0.3 0.0 15.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.7 4.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 13.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.6 2.5 0.5 0.1 9.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.1 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.8 4.5 7.0 9.3 11.0 12.2 11.9 11.1 9.2 7.5 5.2 3.2 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 87.9% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
15-3 62.0% 1.1    0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 27.7% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 5.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 1.9 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 97.2% 49.2% 48.0% 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.6%
17-1 0.3% 88.8% 42.8% 46.0% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.4%
16-2 0.9% 72.6% 31.4% 41.2% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 60.0%
15-3 1.8% 60.8% 24.4% 36.4% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 48.2%
14-4 3.2% 39.3% 16.3% 23.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.0 27.5%
13-5 5.2% 19.0% 10.7% 8.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 4.2 9.2%
12-6 7.5% 9.5% 6.1% 3.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.8 3.6%
11-7 9.2% 4.7% 3.9% 0.7% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.8 0.8%
10-8 11.1% 3.0% 2.8% 0.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.8 0.2%
9-9 11.9% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.8 0.0%
8-10 12.2% 0.8% 0.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.1
7-11 11.0% 0.3% 0.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.0
6-12 9.3% 0.1% 0.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 9.3
5-13 7.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.0
4-14 4.5% 4.5
3-15 2.8% 2.8
2-16 1.3% 1.3
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 6.1% 3.4% 2.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 93.9 2.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%